Market conditions:

At present, the market has been moving within expectations. Today, it broke through the 60,000 mark in one fell swoop. It is still the same as before. If you have short-term bottom fishing or short-term profits with good profits, you can exit first. You must gamble at 60,000 on Saturday and Sunday. If it stabilizes at 60,000, then the copycat will have opportunities to enter the market. If it cannot stabilize, it will go down again, and you can find a good position to enter.

At present, the big bitcoin is rising, but the copycats are not following the trend. Even if there is an increase, it is only a little bit. Only a few of the more resilient ones will follow the market, and the rest are still lying dormant. Once the big bitcoin falls, these ones will fall faster than anyone else, so in the short term, you must pay attention to protecting profits.

In the macro market, recent market trading data shows that CME's expectation of the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut in September has dropped to 58%, while the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has risen to 42%. JPMorgan Chase still predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. This situation is slightly unfavorable to the market. The first large-scale rate cut of 50 basis points means that the economic situation is worse than expected, which may trigger market concerns about economic recession, thereby suppressing the performance of asset prices.

There is less than a week left before the September rate cut. Before the rate cut, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment among investors, and investors may remain cautious. At the same time, the price of gold hit a new high, which is a positive signal for Bitcoin. Although the market generally does not believe that gold and Bitcoin belong to the same category of assets, the liquidity of the two is crucial. If the prices of gold and commodities perform well, it means that there is no problem with global monetary liquidity, which is also an important basis for the rise of Bitcoin.

Has the cow finished walking?

First of all, we need to judge whether the bull market has ended or is in the adjustment stage.

First, we look at the historical adjustment phases, one is May-September 2023, and the other is May-August 2021. The adjustment months are 6 months and 4 months, and the closing period is 3 months.

Secondly, if we look at the historical bull market peaks and bear market adjustment months, such as 2018 and 2022, they are basically 15 months, and the months with negative closings are as high as 10 months.

Combined with the overall market situation, there is an expectation of interest rate cuts in the future, so the probability of a direct bear market is very low, unless the interest rate cut is accompanied by an economic recession. The negative impact of the economic recession is greater, and it directly turns into an economic depression.

The CPI data will be released tonight. If it is lower than expected, it is a big positive.

Higher than expected is also a positive, because this data only determines: whether the interest rate will be cut by 50 basis points or 25 basis points

The data released by the United States last week were not very good, reflecting the sluggish manufacturing industry in the United States. The U.S. stock market also fell, and many large technology stocks fell by more than 10%. This made many people look forward to the early arrival of interest rate cuts.

The data was released at 20:30 in the evening. The market currently has great differences in expectations about the extent of the Fed's interest rate cut this month. The release of the US CPI data in August will guide the market to adjust its expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut. The short-term market will inevitably fluctuate greatly.

We will have the first televised debate between Trump and Harris. Trump is still good in terms of public speaking. As a staunch supporter of cryptocurrency, even if he does it for the election, if Trump is elected, it will bring unprecedented benefits to cryptocurrency.

Market sentiment can be driven up at any time, and a large part of this industry relies on market sentiment speculation. Now the market also predicts that if Trump is elected, the price of Bitcoin will be pushed to US$90,000 in the fourth quarter. Although the election has not yet been won, this is worth looking forward to.

The key is the path of rate cuts, not the magnitude of the September cut

Fed's Goolsbee gave a speech at 23:00: Today's employment data is a continuation of what we have been observing. The job market is slowing down. Inflation data every month is lower than expected. Policy has just been tightened, which raises some serious questions for this meeting and the next few months. We must ensure that the labor market does not deteriorate. The content of the Fed's Beige Book is relatively pessimistic, suggesting that there are warning signs in the economy. The general consensus within the Fed is that there will be multiple interest rate cuts.

Non-agricultural data

The non-farm data is out, which mainly consists of two parts. The forecast data for the unemployment rate in August is 4.2%, and the published data is also 4.2%, which is in line with expectations.

The forecast value of non-farm data was 16, and the published value was 14.2, which was neutral news and further provided data support for the interest rate cut. The non-farm employment data in August rebounded from the weakness in July, but the data for the first two months were revised down.

All we can say is that the United States has played with expectations very clearly. It wants to cut interest rates, but it doesn't want to cut them too quickly. So it starts with 25 basis points and cuts interest rates slowly. It doesn't want to cut interest rates quickly because of an economic recession.

Market conditions:

However, in general, the key factors that are most likely to affect the crypto market in the future are: Fed rate cuts, elections, SEC regulatory strategies, FTX debt repayment schedule, US stock and technology stock trends, US Bitcoin ETF fund flows, halving cycles, etc. Especially in anticipation of rate cuts and halving, many investors and institutions have adopted early deployment methods, but some analysts still say that they should pay attention to short-term risks, and BTC may pull back to the range of 400-500 million US dollars.

Bullish and positive events

Bitcoin’s illiquid supply reached 74% of the total, a record high, indicating that the supply shock caused by the halving is actually intensifying, which will provide increasing impetus for Bitcoin and other crypto assets in the coming months.

September can be said to be the month with the most news, meetings, and macro-impact. Various news are constantly coming out, and it is argued that the market can be pushed out of the quagmire. However, the problem with the market now lies in the lack of liquidity in the entire cycle and the low market trading sentiment.

We can also see from the September financial calendar compiled by OuYi that there are news almost every day. The most critical Federal Reserve interest rate meeting is also this month, superimposed with several important blockchain conferences.

The key data is the employment data on the 6th. This data will become the last factor that may directly affect the interest rate cut in the early morning of the 19th. The interest rate cut has become a foregone conclusion. The key is that the data will affect the number of interest rate cuts this year and the extent of each cut.

The first half of the bull market is over, and the second half of the bull market is about to begin
1. Current status of the cryptocurrency market and investors’ concerns

Over the past seven months, Bitcoin has been trading in a downtrend range between $74,000 and $52,000, with investors concerned about BTC’s future, unsure whether it will break out of the uptrend or continue to fall in price. The market is currently in a “wait and see” mode.

Analysts’ views and events that affect Bitcoin prices

Coinstash co-founder Mena Theodorou believes Bitcoin’s next big move depends on how the market reacts to upcoming political and regulatory changes in the U.S. during the election season, as well as upcoming macroeconomic data.

Bitcoin spot ETF is like a double-edged sword, always keeping an eye on your pockets. The passage of spot ETF has overdrawn the increase of Bitcoin in advance, but in the case of insufficient liquidity during the interest rate hike cycle, Bitcoin has been seriously bleeding. Altcoins have not shown any outstanding performance, but they have fallen a lot.

Moreover, with the passage of the ETF, Bitcoin has no new narrative, including the lack of new narrative in the entire circle. This has led to the entire cryptocurrency being completely dependent on the U.S. stock market and the U.S. market. Recently, the main trading hours in the U.S. market have performed poorly. Friday’s ETF data was particularly poor, and the main BlackRock data was also 0. Fortunately, there was no outflow from BlackRock.

Market Analysis

Tens of thousands of pie charts in Mentougou are waiting there. As soon as they are pulled up, they will take the opportunity to sell them down, and the market funds cannot catch them. In addition, the Gaza peace talks are heading for collapse.

The market is expected to remain volatile over the weekend. If it breaks through $60,000, don’t chase highs.

There is no big reason for the price of bitcoin to rise now. If the remaining 40,000 bitcoins in Mentougou continue to be processed,

Stimulated by the selling pressure in Mentougou, it may fall to $55,000. But if these 40,000 have not moved, there is no need to worry too much.

At the beginning of the month we said that the selling pressure and volatility of Bitcoin would continue until October, and now it seems to be about the same.

Because this kind of market with both long and short positions has made everyone extremely disgusted and desperate, or just buy spot goods, which will not be liquidated no matter what. The correction has also brought the market back to the previous range of shocks. In the short term, it can be compressed into a small range of 57780-61800 US dollars. Consider the direction after getting out of this range.

As for the short-term liquidation map, it is already a state where neither long nor short is active. This is not a good thing. Of course, it is also an indispensable stage for a big market in the future. The market itself lacks liquidity. If this continues, the activity will be even lower, resulting in frequent pin-spiking and gate-drawing markets.

Market news in September:

Apple will hold a press conference on the 10th, and this time it will release new phones, and it is estimated that it will also bring AI phones, so whether it is Nvidia or Apple, it is good for the AI ​​sector and the cryptocurrency circle.

At the same time, there will be a TV debate between Trump and Harris on the 10th. These will all affect the currency circle. I believe everyone knows Trump’s attitude towards cryptocurrency. If he mentions it, it will be good news. Therefore, there are a lot of news in September, and almost all of them are good news.

We should also pay special attention to the unemployment rate on the 6th, because this data is the last important data that affects the interest rate decision at 2 am on the 19th (Beijing time). It can be basically confirmed that this interest rate cut has begun, but the magnitude of the cut is more likely to be 25 points and less likely to be 50 points.

The second is the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting released early Thursday morning. Most participants believed that the risk of a cooling job market was increasing, and many officials believed that inflation risks were receding and were relatively sustainable.

   
Finally, Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday night almost confirmed that interest rates would be cut in September. He said: "The time for policy adjustment has come. The policy direction has been made clear, and the timing and pace of interest rate cuts will depend on subsequent data, changes in the outlook and the balance of risks."
    

Overall, the Fed is going to cut interest rates at the next meeting. As for how much, I think the probability of a 25 bp cut is higher. There will be 2-3 cuts by the end of the year.

On August 23, 2024, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell officially announced at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting that "Now is the time to adjust policy. The timing and pace of interest rate cuts will depend on incoming data.

If the macro data is not unexpected, the first interest rate cut will be ushered in at the interest rate meeting on September 19. However, entering the early stage of the interest rate cut cycle does not mean that a surge will come immediately. There are still some risks that deserve everyone's attention. Therefore, the author summarizes some of the most important issues at present, hoping to help everyone avoid some risks.

Market Analysis
                                                    
The US interest rate cut is inevitable, and a big bull market is quietly brewing. The non-farm data was revised down by 800,000 the day before yesterday.

This shows that the US economic situation is not good. The PMI data released yesterday was expected to be 49.6, and the initial value was 48, which is still favorable for interest rate cuts. BlackRock said that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.

Two Fed officials said they believed it would be appropriate for the central bank to start cutting interest rates soon.

The pace of subsequent rate cuts should be gradual. The former Fed "hawk" said that this year's rate cut may be 75 basis points.

Fed FOMC meeting minutes are dovish: rate cut is possible in September

The Fed recently held a meeting to discuss interest rates. They felt that although interest rates are high now, rising inflation and unemployment may require them to adjust slightly. Several officials even felt that a 25 basis point rate cut was reasonable now, or they could have supported the decision.

However, most members still feel that if the data continues to meet expectations, they may have to consider easing policy at the next meeting. Fed Chairman Powell also said that they hope everyone can have more confidence that inflation can reach the 2% target before cutting interest rates.

ETFs are running out of momentum. In fact, since March, there has been no large-scale and sustained net inflow of ETF funds. In recent times, the daily net flow of Bitcoin ETFs is only a few hundred coins, and the daily net flow of Ethereum ETFs is only a few thousand coins, which is even less than the buying and selling volume of ordinary whales.

Institutions investing in Bitcoin are waiting for a more important macroeconomic catalyst, and institutions investing in Ethereum are observing whether a new narrative will emerge after the negative impact of Ethereum's FUD. At this stage, the flow of ETFs is unlikely to ignite bullish sentiment; while other segments of the crypto market are facing potential outflows of billions of dollars, further dampening market sentiment.