Bitcoin spot ETF is like a double-edged sword, always keeping an eye on your pockets. The passage of spot ETF has overdrawn the increase of Bitcoin in advance, but in the case of insufficient liquidity during the interest rate hike cycle, Bitcoin has been seriously bleeding. Altcoins have not shown any outstanding performance, but they have fallen a lot.
Moreover, with the passage of the ETF, Bitcoin has no new narrative, including the lack of new narrative in the entire circle. This has led to the entire cryptocurrency being completely dependent on the U.S. stock market and the U.S. market. Recently, the main trading hours in the U.S. market have performed poorly. Friday’s ETF data was particularly poor, and the main BlackRock data was also 0. Fortunately, there was no outflow from BlackRock.
September is a very important month. According to historical rules, the market usually rises before and falls after a rate cut, and then a bull market starts after the fallback. So in September, the market first rises and then falls back, ending the volatility that has lasted for more than half a year. If we can get through September, we will win.
If we follow past market conditions, the bull market would have been awakened 163 days after the Bitcoin halving in 2016 and 2020. Now we have experienced 134 days, and there is still exactly one month left, which means that after September, the bull market will be awakened in October.
Will rate cuts really push up the price of Bitcoin?
For cryptocurrency investors, the fundamental concern about the Fed's rate cut is whether this rate cut can push up the price of Bitcoin! History tells us that the Fed's rate cuts are often beneficial to Bitcoin. This is because rate cuts reduce the cost of capital, and investors are more inclined to put their money in high-risk, high-return places, such as Bitcoin. So if the Fed cuts interest rates, the editor thinks that several aspects of how it may help Bitcoin:
Stimulating investment: In a low-interest rate environment, investors will look for higher returns, which may drive up the price of Bitcoin.
Improved market sentiment: The rate cut sends a signal that the Federal Reserve is actively stimulating the economy, and investors may therefore be more willing to take risks and invest their funds in Bitcoin.
Highlighting Bitcoin's anti-inflation properties: When interest rate cuts lead to lower returns on traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, Bitcoin's anti-inflation properties may become more prominent, attracting more investors to buy.
Increase market liquidity: The loose monetary policy brought about by interest rate cuts has resulted in more money in the market, making it easier for investors to enter the market, thereby pushing up Bitcoin prices.
Summarize:
August is about to end, the monthly line will close, and the market will be adjusted to this position. I have two predictions for September. First, if the Fed cuts interest rates, global capital will flow back, the industry will recover, and cryptocurrencies will start a bull market. Second, if the Fed continues to maintain high interest rates in September, the market will continue to experience violent fluctuations in September until the bull market starts in October. Therefore, whether the Fed cuts interest rates or maintains high interest rates, this year's bull market will not be affected. Those who hold chips in their hands can hold them firmly, and those who are still waiting for the bottom can slowly build positions at low prices.
