Market Analysis
The US interest rate cut is inevitable, and a big bull market is quietly brewing. The non-farm data was revised down by 800,000 the day before yesterday.
This shows that the US economic situation is not good. The PMI data released yesterday was expected to be 49.6, and the initial value was 48, which is still favorable for interest rate cuts. BlackRock said that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.
Two Fed officials said they believed it would be appropriate for the central bank to start cutting interest rates soon.
The pace of subsequent rate cuts should be gradual. The former Fed "hawk" said that this year's rate cut may be 75 basis points.
The conflict between Iran and Israel has come to an end. For BTC, the current problem is the selling pressure in Mentougou. BTC will continue to go sideways for a while until September.
The copycat season may arrive early.
The longer the market adjustment lasts, the stronger the rebound is likely to be!
Although the altcoin market has experienced an unexpected plunge recently, history shows that each market has its own uniqueness. The current despair may indicate a greater rebound opportunity in the future, so don't lower your expectations because of a short-term downturn.
Remember, the essence of the bull market has not changed. Even if there is a sharp drop in the short term, a few strong rebounds can quickly reverse the situation. It is crucial to maintain a long-term vision and firm confidence. Short-term fluctuations are the norm, and long-term trends are the key.
A sharp drop in a bull market is usually just a temporary adjustment. As long as there is no major change in market fundamentals, the market still has the potential to rise in the long run.
The best time for bulls to attack this week is tonight. If Powell's speech at the Jack Ma Annual Meeting is dovish, the probability of being dovish here is higher. If positive news can be released, it will directly lead to a breakthrough in the market.
This is the most critical and important time point that affects this week. There are also some factors that can affect the market, such as changes in the contract positions of the entire network. For example, the main driving force for the rise to exceed 60,000 this time came from Coinbase spot purchases, not futures. On the contrary, contract positions reaching a certain level will suppress price increases.
The probability of a 1-digit drop in September has risen to over 70%
According to the latest forecast of the Fed Watch tool, the market's expectation for a 1 basis point rate cut in September has clearly increased. The market currently believes that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 1 basis point in September is 73.5%, which is much higher than the 65.5% reported by the Momentum Zone yesterday. The probability of a 2 basis point cut has dropped to 26.5%.
The callback is about to end
The 200-week moving average (200WMA) proposed by PlanB is a key indicator for analyzing the long-term trend of Bitcoin. This thing is often seen as an important support and resistance point in the market, and it is also a good tool to measure changes in market sentiment. During the bear market from 2018 to 2019 and the market turmoil caused by COVID-19 in 2020, the 200WMA showed its role as an important support line. Even in the bull market in 2021, although the price of Bitcoin has pulled back several times, every time the price approaches the 200WMA, it can get support and then start to rise again.
Historical data also tells us that if orange and red dots appear on the price chart, it usually means that the market is overheated, and this may be a good time to sell Bitcoin. Recently, PlanB also said that according to the 200WMA heat map, Bitcoin has increased fourfold from the bottom in 2022 to now. Historically, a 7 to 10-fold increase often starts from this stage.
