Market Analysis
Tens of thousands of pie charts in Mentougou are waiting there. As soon as they are pulled up, they will take the opportunity to sell them down, and the market funds cannot catch them. In addition, the Gaza peace talks are heading for collapse.
The market is expected to remain volatile over the weekend. If it breaks through $60,000, don’t chase highs.
There is no big reason for the price of bitcoin to rise now. If the remaining 40,000 bitcoins in Mentougou continue to be processed,
Stimulated by the selling pressure in Mentougou, it may fall to $55,000. But if these 40,000 have not moved, there is no need to worry too much.
At the beginning of the month we said that the selling pressure and volatility of Bitcoin would continue until October, and now it seems to be about the same.
Crypto Events Next Week
Monday (September 2) TON Asia
Tuesday (September 3) US August ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday (September 4) Bitcoin Odyssey
Thursday (September 5) US August ADP employment figures; Meta Expo Dubai 2024
Friday (September 6) U.S. unemployment rate for August; U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for August
ETH
First of all, there is no doubt that Ethereum’s technology and developers are awesome, but why has it failed to recover this time?
What is very popular in this round is definitely re-staking. The essence of re-staking is to lock up ETH and reduce liquidity. It does not use ETH as a benchmark unit for measurement and pricing. Users' demand for ETH is greatly reduced.
The main function of Ethereum is the settlement layer. Now that L2 has emerged and the functions of L2 are highly overlapping with those of Ethereum, many demands have been diverted to L2, weakening the burning amount of L2.
From a macro perspective, we are currently in a tightening cycle with little market liquidity. Unlike ETH ETF and BTC ETF, the net inflow of ETH ETF has been negative for more than a month, which is equivalent to the new and old whales of the entire ETH cashing out through the ETF.
If ETH wants to take off, it has to start from the demand, allow more new assets to be priced in ETH, and expand user demand and liquidity.
Those who hold ETH don’t need to panic. After all, ETH is the leader among altcoins, so you can get through this period.
After the interest rate cut, more money will flow in. If traditional financial institutions of Web2 want to come in, they can only do so through ETFs, either by buying BTC or ETH.
Outlook for next week
1. Bitcoin: Currently, Bitcoin lacks its own favorable factors and is in a volatile state. Its price fluctuations are mainly affected by market news and macro data. A series of macro data will be released next week, especially the US unemployment rate data in August, which has attracted much attention. The market generally believes that this data will affect the extent of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, which may cause drastic market fluctuations. According to the analysis of the downward revision of employment by the US Department of Labor last week, it is expected that the unemployment rate next week may be higher than expected, so Bitcoin may show a volatile upward trend under the influence of macro data.
2. Ethereum: This week, Ethereum founder Vitalik tweeted that he was not inclined to support the development of DeFi within the Ethereum ecosystem, sparking widespread opposition in the market. In response to this situation, multiple projects and users within the ecosystem began to re-support Meme projects, pushing ETH to outperform BTC after Wednesday this week. Given the huge size of the Ethereum ecosystem and the support of Meme projects, it is expected that ETH will continue to outperform BTC next week.
3. Altcoin: Next week is the week for the release of U.S. macro data. The crypto market has performed relatively weakly recently. It is expected that Altcoin will mainly follow the fluctuations of macro data and it will be difficult for it to develop an independent trend.
