Has the cow finished walking?
First of all, we need to judge whether the bull market has ended or is in the adjustment stage.
First, we look at the historical adjustment phases, one is May-September 2023, and the other is May-August 2021. The adjustment months are 6 months and 4 months, and the closing period is 3 months.
Secondly, if we look at the historical bull market peaks and bear market adjustment months, such as 2018 and 2022, they are basically 15 months, and the months with negative closings are as high as 10 months.
Combined with the overall market situation, there is an expectation of interest rate cuts in the future, so the probability of a direct bear market is very low, unless the interest rate cut is accompanied by an economic recession. The negative impact of the economic recession is greater, and it directly turns into an economic depression.
Of course, you can say that this bull market adjustment is probably the most painful one in history. It is not an exaggeration to say that the adjustment has been going on for 4 times, or that it has lasted for 7 months. Except for Bitcoin, the decline of other currencies is basically no different from experiencing a bear market.
However, for Bitcoin, we still have to judge that it has reached its peak. Now is an adjustment period rather than a bear market.
Secondly, look at the waves. If five waves are completed now, this is how it is drawn.
The problem is that the wave theory has three necessary conditions: the adjustment end point of wave 2 cannot be lower than the starting point of wave 1, the adjustment of wave 4 cannot be lower than the high point of wave 3, and wave 3 cannot be the shortest. Here, wave 3 is obviously the shortest, which is not in line with reality.
Whether it is the interest rate cut at the macroeconomic level or the approval of ETFs this year, the bull market should not be too disrespectful.
When will the 5th wave of bull market start and where will the 5th wave go?
In any case, we can predict that the 4th wave of adjustment is coming to an end. I personally predict that it is likely to be in October. We have followed up on several relatively cautious blockchain game projects before, and the project owners have been reluctant to make big moves, whether it is coin distribution or TGE.
We have also heard recently that there are plans for big moves in October.
Then the next question is where can wave 5 go.
The 5 waves are divided into failed 5 waves and successful 5 waves.
From another perspective, if we assume that there will be 5 waves sooner or later in the future, it will inevitably break through the previous suppression of 73,000 US dollars. Then the current structure will be a head and shoulders bottom. Based on this, we draw the price track, and the target position of the upper track is 100,000 US dollars, which is consistent with this price.
Of course, there is no top in a bull market, and we cannot say that 100,000 is the precise upper limit. As for how high it is, we still have to wait for the market to come out. When the top structure really appears, it is time for us to run away. So be sure to pay attention to my channel, this time I will definitely help you escape the top.
Why does Bitcoin always plummet in September?
September was one of Bitcoin’s worst months, and there are three theories as to why:
First, because it is unfavorable for risky assets.
Second, it is because of the SEC enforcement season.
Third, people expect the situation in September to be bad.
Markets hate uncertainty, and there is a lot of it right now, which is one of the reasons for Bitcoin's weakness. Investors are rebalancing their bets, expecting cryptocurrencies to rebound sharply in October and November as uncertainty dissipates. Despite a decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF inflows, investment advisors are still rapidly adopting Bitcoin ETFs. Historical trends show that cryptocurrencies can rebound sharply, so be prepared.
Changes in the global economic environment, uncertainty in policy regulation, and fluctuations in market sentiment may all have a significant impact on Bitcoin prices. In particular, the current pace of global economic recovery is uneven, and there are differences in monetary policies among countries, which increases market uncertainty.
It is not far-fetched for Bitcoin to reach the $100,000 mark in 2024. Current market performance, historical trends, key events, and technical analysis all point to a positive direction. Of course, while pursuing high returns, investors should also remain rational and pay attention to market dynamics and policy changes to make more informed investment decisions.
