Market conditions:

However, in general, the key factors that are most likely to affect the crypto market in the future are: Fed rate cuts, elections, SEC regulatory strategies, FTX debt repayment schedule, US stock and technology stock trends, US Bitcoin ETF fund flows, halving cycles, etc. Especially in anticipation of rate cuts and halving, many investors and institutions have adopted early deployment methods, but some analysts still say that they should pay attention to short-term risks, and BTC may pull back to the range of 400-500 million US dollars.

Bullish and positive events


Bitcoin’s illiquid supply reached 74% of the total, a record high, indicating that the supply shock caused by the halving is actually intensifying, which will provide increasing impetus for Bitcoin and other crypto assets in the coming months.


Grayscale: If the dollar weakens and interest rates continue to fall, it will be good for Bitcoin. The main downside risk to crypto valuations is a further rise in unemployment and a possible recession, but U.S. policymakers will start to release money and promote consumption when there are signs of a recession.


A 25 basis point rate cut could signal the start of a typical easing cycle, while a more aggressive 50 basis point cut could cause an immediate surge in Bitcoin prices, but could be followed by a pullback as recession fears grow.


Bitcoin may have strong support at $54,000, and the options market still shows medium-term bullish signals.


According to data, Bitcoin's average hash rate has been growing steadily over the past year and has seen significant growth in 2024. Historically, the hash rate has generally moved in line with Bitcoin's price movements, reflecting miners' confidence and more optimistic market sentiment.


Bitcoin’s net realized profit/loss metric stabilized in the second half of this year, indicating a balance between profits and losses as the market matures after the halving.


Positive events:


Russia allows the use of cryptocurrencies for international trade.


The U.S. SEC no longer seeks to restart hedge fund trading fee disclosure rules.


Zurich Cantonal Bank Launches Bitcoin and Crypto Products.


Metaplanet has partnered with the crypto arm of Japanese financial giant SBI.


Market Phase and Altcoin Performance


Phase 1:


After a market bottom, Bitcoin typically rebounds first, leading the rally. As investors begin to see gains, capital begins to flow into Ethereum and other major altcoins.


Phase 2:


This phase coincides with events (regular reductions in Bitcoin block rewards), during which Bitcoin continues to lead. However, interest in altcoins continues to increase, and investment also spreads to altcoins with larger market capitalizations.


Phase 3:


As the market matures, Bitcoin’s dominance may begin to wane. This phase typically sees Bitcoin prices approach or set new all-time highs. Historical data shows that the third phase shows Bitcoin approaching or exceeding its previous highs, after which a wider range of altcoins begin to rise.


Phase 4:


This phase occurs after a possession event and typically sees altcoins explode in value. As capital flows from Bitcoin and large-cap altcoins into these high-risk, high-reward assets, investors begin to earn significant returns from small-cap and newer altcoins.


Bitcoin Dominance:


Bitcoin dominance, which measures the percentage of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, is currently between 55% and 60%. It is expected to drop to around 58% by the end of 2024. This decline indicates that capital is shifting to altcoins.


summary


In terms of the comparison between the long and short positions, the bullish sentiment does not overwhelmingly cover the bearish view. The current market perception is more inclined to believe that there is still a risk of decline before the interest rate cut, and several other major factors such as the election, the US economy, and regulation are still unclear, and the market trend may fluctuate violently at any time. However, institutions are generally optimistic about the long-term upward trend of the crypto market, and whales are also quietly making arrangements. In short, ordinary investors still need to be cautious in the current situation and always pay attention to market changes.