The first half of the bull market is over, and the second half of the bull market is about to begin

1. Current status of the cryptocurrency market and investors’ concerns

Over the past seven months, Bitcoin has been trading in a downtrend range between $74,000 and $52,000, with investors concerned about BTC’s future, unsure whether it will break out of the uptrend or continue to fall in price. The market is currently in a “wait and see” mode.

Analysts’ views and events that affect Bitcoin prices

Coinstash co-founder Mena Theodorou believes Bitcoin’s next big move depends on how the market reacts to upcoming political and regulatory changes in the U.S. during the election season, as well as upcoming macroeconomic data.

Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro, expects the September 18 FOMC meeting to be the next “big catalyst” for Bitcoin price action. Market participants generally believe that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will raise interest rates by 0.525%, which he said is a major positive for risk assets such as Bitcoin. This week’s US employment data will be the main driver of expectations and could cause volatility in crypto assets.

Coinstash CEO Tina Wang said investors should pay attention to the U.S. employment data released on September 6. The higher-than-expected unemployment rate in July raised concerns about a recession, but the higher-than-expected unemployment rate could also give the Federal Reserve more reasons to cut interest rates.

IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore believes that Bitcoin needs a “sustained breakout” of the recent high of $65,000 to consolidate a proper reversal. If this level is breached, Bitcoin will face a “resistance cluster” between $70,000 and $74,000 before the market can turn positive.

As the price of Bitcoin stabilized around $60,000, the number of addresses holding more than 10 BTC reversed in August and rebounded to 153,500, indicating that some addresses have begun to buy the bottom and build positions during the volatility. The US Bitcoin spot ETF also continued to have net inflows.

There is no new narrative in the crypto market itself, so the price trend of Bitcoin is moving closer to the macro environment, and the US economic situation determines the short-term trend of Bitcoin. The US economic situation is not easy to predict, but the huge amount of money released by the US's preventive interest rate cut is likely to make the price of a fixed amount of assets such as Bitcoin go up. After all, inflation cannot be diluted by quantity, so the only way is to get a higher increase than inflation.

However, Ethereum's performance is not as good as Bitcoin. As of the 29th, the US Ethereum spot ETF has seen net outflows for 9 consecutive days:

At present, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has reached the 0.4 mark, setting a new low since 2021. There are many factors that lead to the continued weakness of Ethereum, among which Grayscale's continued selling is one of the core reasons.

ETH is very suitable for building a position in the second half of this year. After ETH began trading on Nasdaq on July 23 this year, it has been repeating the process of Grayscale selling BTC at the beginning of this year. The selling process may last from half a month to one month until the market can take over Grayscale's selling. Once this critical point is reached, it is a very good time to build a position.

Pay attention to the BTC/ETH exchange rate in the second half of this year. Once Grayscale’s net outflow ends, it will be time to build a position.

The Fed's interest rate cut decision ignited market enthusiasm and brought positive changes to the cryptocurrency field. With inflation slowing and the job market stabilizing, investor sentiment has shifted from pessimism to optimism, and it is expected that asset prices will rebound strongly after a brief adjustment.

Bitcoin has demonstrated its appeal as a safe-haven asset, and has been increasingly held by institutions even amid volatility, indicating that its value will be further confirmed and enhanced. In particular, as Grayscale's ETH sell-off ends, changes in the ETH/BTC exchange rate will become a signal for investors to build positions that they should not miss. In this wave of monetary easing, the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, will usher in a new growth cycle.