Non-agricultural data
The non-farm data is out, which mainly consists of two parts. The forecast data for the unemployment rate in August is 4.2%, and the published data is also 4.2%, which is in line with expectations.
The forecast value of non-farm data was 16, and the published value was 14.2, which was neutral news and further provided data support for the interest rate cut. The non-farm employment data in August rebounded from the weakness in July, but the data for the first two months were revised down.
All we can say is that the United States has played with expectations very clearly. It wants to cut interest rates, but it doesn't want to cut them too quickly. So it starts with 25 basis points and cuts interest rates slowly. It doesn't want to cut interest rates quickly because of an economic recession.
I have said many times that September is a time point for the market to connect the past and the future, and it is also a time point for the market to gradually turn from weak to strong. I can only say that this month will see the golden pit of the second half of the year. You can read my previous article. The last time I talked about the golden pit, it was also when Bitcoin fell sharply, and then Bitcoin rebounded to 70,000. A good time to enter the market is greater than all your waiting in the middle, which is the choice is greater than hard work.
After all, in this almost desperate market situation, many people do not believe in a bull market.
The US economy is good, but it’s over. There is insufficient motivation to cut interest rates, and it’s going to fall!
The US economy is bad. It’s over. It’s going to collapse and go into recession. It’s going to fall!
The United States has cut interest rates, it’s over, the good news has come, and the market is going to fall!
If the United States doesn’t cut interest rates, it’s over. The market is dry and will fall!
When you hate someone, even breathing is wrong. When the market is rubbish, everything you do is bad.
But if you believe there is still a bull market, I believe the dawn is not far away.
So from the moment Buffett sold off US stocks and the founder of Nvidia reduced his holdings of Nvidia shares, these people have already smelled the crisis in the market. They are stockpiling cash in preparation for better bargaining at low prices.
Why I still believe that Bitcoin will have a bull market
So the market would ask, why do U.S. stocks rise during the interest rate hike cycle, but fall during the interest rate cut cycle?
It is a liquidity issue. When the US dollar is in an interest rate hike cycle, the US dollar is in a strong cycle. Global funds will flow back to the United States for risk aversion, and part of the funds will flow into the US stock market, bringing liquidity and driving up the US stock market.
When the interest rate cut cycle begins, funds will seek safety and begin to flow out of the United States. Non-US currencies will strengthen, which will also take away some funds from US stocks, causing liquidity to decline, thereby triggering a short-term decline in US stocks.
However, with the arrival of multiple interest rate cuts, liquidity will come again, because as interest rates fall, funds deposited in banks will go to markets with higher yields, that is, US stocks.
In addition, institutional investors who previously gave up financing due to the increase in financing costs due to the interest rate hike will now start to raise funds again as interest rates fall. The purpose of financing is to invest and obtain higher returns. In the United States, U.S. stocks are still the most attractive market, which brings together the world's top listed companies.
Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why the U.S. stock market rises during the interest rate hike cycle, but sees capital outflow when the interest rate cut cycle begins.
But as I said, the escape is only a temporary risk aversion. As interest rates fall, this part of the safe-haven funds will flow back from US bonds to US stocks again.
Let me say something that is considered good. Even though mainstream coins fell so sharply yesterday, many altcoins no longer followed suit. This shows that the market has begun to differentiate, and many altcoins have reached a price and market value that the market can accept.