Market news in September:
Apple will hold a press conference on the 10th, and this time it will release new phones, and it is estimated that it will also bring AI phones, so whether it is Nvidia or Apple, it is good for the AI sector and the cryptocurrency circle.
At the same time, there will be a TV debate between Trump and Harris on the 10th. These will all affect the currency circle. I believe everyone knows Trump’s attitude towards cryptocurrency. If he mentions it, it will be good news. Therefore, there are a lot of news in September, and almost all of them are good news.
We should also pay special attention to the unemployment rate on the 6th, because this data is the last important data that affects the interest rate decision at 2 am on the 19th (Beijing time). It can be basically confirmed that this interest rate cut has begun, but the magnitude of the cut is more likely to be 25 points and less likely to be 50 points.
Then at the end of the month, CZ will be released from prison. All this happened in September, so there are more opportunities in September. At the same time, the closer to a rate cut, the greater the risk. After all, in the past, after the first rate cut, the U.S. stock market would experience a correction and then start a long-term bull market.
Therefore, we are still looking forward to September. After all, the more news there are, the more opportunities there are, but also the more challenges we face. It will also be more difficult to operate in the market, after all, there is a possibility of bad news.
Market analysis:
Bitcoin will maintain range fluctuations in the short term. Although it is bearish in direction, bulls still have opportunities. The short-term pressure level above is still in the 60,600-61,600 range. Then, if it breaks through 62,800, it is also a pressure level. Then there is the 64,000 US dollars.
The support levels are 58,200 and 56,000 US dollars, and the defensive support level is 54,500 US dollars. If it falls below here, I think it will not be excessive to see 50,000, although there is also a support level of 52,000.
Ethereum's short-term pressure is here at $2,560. 2,688-2,720 is a heavy pressure zone upwards, but the long-term thinking is still the same as before. If Ethereum does not break through and stabilize at $2,800, it will be a weak chicken. Unless it stabilizes at $2,800, it can come back, which is a watershed.
The downward support is at $2,400, then $2,310 and $2,088. It is worth mentioning here that the exchange rate of Ethereum to Bitcoin has almost reached the previous low point, and every time this happens, a large positive line will appear.
It has appeared twice before. This is the weekly trend of the Ethereum to Bitcoin exchange rate. After each big drop, there will be a big positive line on the weekly chart. Today, there are some signs of Ethereum's oversold rebound. After all, the decline is large, and Vitalik Buterin has been condemned by the world recently.
How to look at the market outlook
Since the cryptocurrency market has been fluctuating between 50,000 and 70,000 for too long in the past six months, it is expected that this balance will be broken in September and a unilateral super-large market will leave the 50,000-70,000 range. The super-large unilateral market will rise by 60,000+20,000=80,000, and the super-large unilateral market will fall by 60,000-20,000=40,000. If you make the right choice in September, you will become rich, and if you make the wrong choice, you will be liquidated. This is a general prediction of the market in September and October.
It is obvious from the monthly return rate of Bitcoin that in 11 of the past 13-24 years, Bitcoin had very bad Septembers, with 8 declines and 3 increases. Moreover, September likes to have a crash anniversary. September is likely to continue the downward trend in August, then bottom out, bottom out in mid-to-late September and then rebound at the end of September, come out of the haze in October and rise sharply in October.
Historically, the market has risen 9 times in October and only fell twice, one of which was in October 2014. In the 10 years from 2014 to 2024, the market has basically risen in October, and there have been 6 October surges, with an increase of 25-35%. This is based on historical data: September is likely to fall and October to rise.
September 6th 20:30 U.S. unemployment rate data (important)
September 11th US CPI Price Index data (important)
September interest rate cut + unemployment rate fell (good) + CPI fell (good) = big rise
September rate cut + unemployment rate increased (bad) + CPI increased (bad) = big drop
In September, I will continue to update my views based on the US economic data. The current market direction is formed by the combined forces of many uncertainties. We may be able to improve our chances of winning by following the following points:
① When you want to buy something you don’t understand, it is better to buy a large currency than a small currency;
② Bitcoin is the weathervane of the entire crypto market. Under the current market conditions, if Bitcoin is weak, other major currencies will not be strong (smaller currencies may occasionally emerge);
③ The batch strategy is conducive to lowering the average price, and the warehouse strategy is helpful to stabilize the mentality; if you are FOMO, buy until you are no longer FOMO; if you are afraid, sell until you are no longer afraid, and maintain your best state.
