#内容挖矿

Pulling down ALT is undoubtedly the most stupid move, after all, #BTC and #ETH are both in a downward trend.

In fact, in the field of cryptocurrency, leverage is everywhere, some on the chain, and some on the exchange. Many ALT holders are keen to pledge their chips and then exchange them for more mainstream assets such as BTC and ETH. However, this kind of pledge has a liquidation weight, and the representative $CRV liquidation last week is such a case. A large amount of CRV was pledged on the chain and exchanged for $ETH. This situation is reasonable, but there are still many investors who use the borrowed ETH to pledge and borrow again, which forms spot leverage.

In the former case, only fluctuations in the CRV price will trigger the liquidation of CRV; but in the latter case, as long as the price of ETH falls, the liquidation of ETH will lead to a chain of liquidations of CRV, and this is exactly the situation we are facing now. Of course, the price drop made it difficult for many investors to hold on and left the market, which is also one of the reasons. This also confirms the saying: when the decline occurs, no token sold is innocent.

However, compared with the current predicament of ALT, BTC and ETH are still relatively strong. Although there are declines, their declines are only about 2%. This has a lot to do with the fact that earlier investors have not left the market on a large scale. It can be clearly seen from the data that many friends are worried about whether the dog dealer is smashing the market, but in fact, the selling in the last 24 hours is more from investors who lost money. If they are dog dealers, such dog dealers may as well come more.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿

The market has been terrible recently. I suggest that you watch the market less, do more things you like, and learn more. Here I would like to share a passage with you:

Many people fall into poverty not because they lack desire, but on the contrary, because their desire is too strong, which makes them too demanding in their expectations of assets. They expect that once they invest, the value of the asset will rise instantly and continue to rise, and they will not allow any form of decline. Once the market fluctuates, they feel that they have been deceived and begin to blame others.

However, no asset can guarantee that it will only rise and not fall forever. Only those who are dishonest will promise such unrealistic returns. Mencius once said: "Those who have permanent property have perseverance, and those who have no permanent property have no perseverance." From the perspective of investment, only those who have firm beliefs and enough patience can accumulate and maintain assets with long-term appreciation. Those who are always anxious and eager for success are often not worthy of owning assets that can bring stable growth.

Therefore, even in times of economic prosperity, many people are still in poverty. They always blame others and society, but fail to realize that the real problem may lie in their own mentality and behavior.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

In the past week, the market has been extremely volatile, and almost all of the changes are closely related to key macro data. In the first event, the non-farm payrolls data released by the United States on June 11th far exceeded expectations, causing the price of Bitcoin to plummet by more than 5%; then, on June 12th, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was 0.1% lower than expected, and the price of Bitcoin rose sharply by more than 5%; finally, on June 13th, the dot plot released by the Federal Reserve showed that the rate cut was lower than market expectations, and Bitcoin fell sharply by nearly 5% again. In just three days, the market experienced two roller coaster-like ups and downs, and many trend traders were deeply troubled by the repeated operations of the main institutions. This situation basically confirms the view that whether there will be a rate cut in September has become one of the most critical game points in the flow of funds in the second half of the year.

Among these three key macroeconomic events, the most eye-catching market reaction occurred when the inflation data was released on June 12th. Although the actual consumer price index (CPI) was only 0.1% lower than expected, within the reasonable error range, the market regarded this nuance as a major positive, suggesting that the market's excessive emphasis on macro data has almost reached a pathological level.

This enthusiasm for macro data reflects that in the absence of a strong cryptocurrency narrative logic, the market can only pin its expectations on loose liquidity policies for valuation space. Therefore, for leveraged traders, the timing of each future macro data release should be treated with extreme caution.

At present, the interest rate swap market shows that market participants generally expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points this year, but there are significant differences in market opinions on whether the first rate cut will be implemented in September. In the past week, with the release of a series of macro data, the swap market has been fluctuating sharply between 50% and 70% for the possibility of a rate cut in September. In this context of unclear expectations, if the rate cut in September is in line with expectations, it will mean that the timing of policy easing is advanced, and it also indicates that the magnitude of the easing policy may exceed market expectations (2-3 rate cuts).

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

BTC is a safe-haven asset to some extent. The risk they avoid is not the risk of capital depreciation, but the risk of acceptance.

For example, in the early days of the war between Russia and Ukraine, both countries had a phased foreign exchange blockade. During this period, the national currencies began to depreciate, and the channels and exchange rates for exchanging dollars gradually turned underground. It was extremely difficult to exchange gold, securities, real estate, bonds, etc. outside the country.

In layman's terms, when you want to "run away", many so-called "value-preserving" assets are difficult for you to take away. Even if some can be taken away, it is not easy to exchange them into local legal currency or US dollars in a third country. However, BTC can do it. Some friends say that stablecoins are not safer, but that is too naive. I won't say more about this.

Therefore, when a large number of long-term holders are high-net-worth investors, their desire for short-term gains is not so strong, and the amount of funds carried by BTC will not be particularly huge. It can be regarded as a small-scale "safe haven" asset. Even if liquidation is required, it may not be necessary to rush. Therefore, long-term holders who have held positions for more than 2 cycles have now exceeded 30%, which is generally evident.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

Although the price of BTC showed a phased decline on Monday, falling below $66,000, from the perspective of on-chain data, except for a slight increase in the turnover of short-term investors, other aspects still maintain the same trend as in the past, and No substantial changes occurred. As for the price of BTC, we may have to adapt to the trend of wide fluctuations for a long time.

Before there is any significant good or bad information (data), the view that a stock is bullish when it rises and bearish when it falls may not be accurate.

At present, it is not ETFs that can fundamentally influence the price of BTC, but the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and macro data for this expectation. The rest of the impact is relatively limited, except for black swan situations. If the economy has a black swan and causes a recession, then the US stock market will Both the financial market and the currency market will inevitably be implicated, and there is no possibility of being spared. However, there is indeed no key macro data this week, so it can be considered a holiday for everyone.

This week is a period of intensive speeches by Federal Reserve officials. In fact, it is not important what they say now. After all, it is quite clear in the just-concluded dot plot that one interest rate cut (1.5 times) in 2024 has been expected, and no more hawkishness is expected. But that's the case, and there's a holiday in the United States on Wednesday (Juneteenth).

Not much else. The turnover rate itself is extremely low, so it will naturally not have an impact on the current support position. The support between US$64,000 and US$69,000 is still strong, and there has been no large-scale selling behavior. If it were not for the following: Worried about the situation, it is very likely that this week will pass just like that.

What is worrying is that the stock of the exchange is not very friendly. It has been mentioned since the weekend that more than 7,000 BTC have been accumulated on the exchange over the weekend. Not only has there been no sign of being consumed, but it has accumulated more and more. At present, More than 10,000 BTC have been acquired, and these 10,000 BTC have basically not been digested from Friday to now. The focus depends on the purchasing power after four o'clock in the morning.

However, the current purchasing power is really too low. It can be seen from the data of spot ETFs that it is mainly emotions that play a role. After all, maintaining high interest rates means that the probability of the United States entering a recession is increasing, so we can only watch as we go.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

First, it describes that the data on Sunday is unremarkable, and the movement of BTC on the chain is at the low point of the bear market, which reflects the current lack of interest of investors in the current price turnover. Then it is mentioned that except for individuals and institutions who have made fixed investments, after more than three months of price fluctuations, those who want to buy and sell have basically completed the operation. The remaining holders are not willing to leave before falling below $56,000. Even if it falls below, there will not be too many investors who leave due to panic, unless there is a black swan event that leads to negative news.

Then it is pointed out that when there is no clear positive or negative data, a wide range of fluctuations around the current support level is a high probability event, because the liquidity is low, the price has not broken, and the investor sentiment has not improved. The trend is mainly controlled by the Federal Reserve, and interest rate cuts are the key topic.

From the data, the turnover rate of BTC is extremely low, and the situation of investors in the range of $64,000 to $69,000 has not changed. It is the range with the most positions and the strongest support. There is no key macro data next week, which is a rare window period. Judging from the stock of exchanges, there is no expectation for the weekend. There are still about 7,000 chips away from the lowest stock value in the past six years. There is no sign of this part of the chips leaving the market. It depends on whether it can be digested after the opening of the US stock market on Monday.

This content analyzes the current situation of the cryptocurrency market, investor behavior and related data performance in detail, and conducts an in-depth discussion on market trends and key factors, providing valuable reference for understanding the current situation of the cryptocurrency market.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿

This passage deeply analyzes some characteristics and current situations of people who speculate in cryptocurrencies. First, it points out that people who speculate in cryptocurrencies are often middle class. They have certain funds but hope to cross the class through speculating in cryptocurrencies. Then it describes various phenomena of mutual contempt among people who speculate in cryptocurrencies. This internal division and prejudice reflects their complex mentality and competitive consciousness.

It also emphasizes that the market is short-term bullish and long-term bearish, and the universality of losses. Whether you are a full-time speculator for five years or ten years, you may face a tragic ending, which also leads to their distorted mentality and personality changes when facing losses.

In recent years, it has become increasingly difficult to make money in the cryptocurrency circle, and the normalization of losses has further aggravated their negative emotions and weird personalities, making them sensitive, suspicious, and difficult to get along with.

Finally, it is concluded that in life, we should try to avoid close contact with people who speculate in cryptocurrencies to avoid being affected by their negative state.

This also reminds people to be cautious about high-risk investment behaviors such as cryptocurrency speculation. At the same time, for those who have already participated in it, we should pay attention to their psychological and emotional changes to avoid adverse effects on themselves and others. In the field of investment, rationality and risk awareness are crucial. We should not be blinded by temporary interests, but also be alert to the series of consequences that may result from investment failure.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

At present, the price of BTC is relatively stable on weekends. Even the negative news such as the possibility of only one interest rate cut in 2024 has not been able to continue to suppress BTC to below $65,000 for a long time. It can be seen that the consensus at this position is still relatively high.

Compared with Saturday, the liquidity on Sunday will be slightly lower. Generally speaking, this is the period of the week when liquidity is at the lowest level. I often say that when liquidity is low on weekends, the amplitude may often be larger. Of course, this situation actually happens less frequently, but because I have suffered losses in this regard, I will be more cautious, especially for those who use high leverage. Once liquidity decreases and the amplitude increases, it is very likely that the price will not change on Monday, but the position will be gone.

Another consequence of reduced liquidity is that the turnover rate of BTC on the chain continues to decline, and today is no exception. You should also know what I am going to say. Yes, early investors still do not participate too much in turnover, and the main investors who are doing turnover are still short-term investors in the past week. Don't tell me you're tired of hearing these words. I'm tired of hearing them too much myself. But the market is like this, and so is the data. Although it's boring at the moment, once there is a change, the data can still give us guidance.

The decrease in turnover rate also means that the support position has not changed. From the data, we can clearly see that $64,000 to $69,000 is still the area where investors with the most positions gather. When there is no substantial change in the chips in this area, it means that the support power of this range is still quite good. I have said this for three months, and it has been proven that it is still correct at least until now.

The turnover rate itself is low, not to mention the purchasing power. It has been mentioned many times that Friday is the day with the lowest purchasing power in a week. On Friday, we saw that the minimum annual stock value of BTC in the exchange increased by less than 5,000 pieces, but from the current point of view, these 5,000 pieces have not been sold to the market. Maybe they want to wait until liquidity is more abundant, and the inventory has accumulated slightly on Saturday. The current inventory value is about 5,500 BTC higher than the lowest value in nearly six years.

#ETH #BTC

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

Three taboos in the currency circle: no entry, no viewing, and no speech! If you violate it, please see the following analysis!

1. No entry
The old saying "investment is risky, enter the market with caution" has to change now, and should be changed to "the currency circle is risky, investors are prohibited from entering". The "investors" referred to here include two categories: one is pure "leeks"; the other is investors who participate indirectly through financial management methods such as purchasing funds. What if you have already entered? Very straightforward, quickly book a plane ticket-run away. It is better to run away early than late, and it is better to run away late than not.

2. No viewing
Those "leeks" who really don't want to run away, are unwilling to run away, still have fantasies about the currency circle, and have to hold the idea of ​​"if you want to live a decent life, you must have a little green on your head", it is recommended to find something else to do after buying coins. If there is really nothing to do, don't pay attention to the currency circle, cover your eyes, so as not to itch.

3. Silence
Silence does not mean covering your mouth and not letting you speak. Whether you make money or lose money, don't go out and show it. We have to have a sense of shame. Cryptocurrency trading is not a great thing to bring honor to our family. Besides, all your attention and every word you say may become data in the transaction database. It's okay to harm yourself, but don't let others get involved!

Of course, I advise everyone like this, but I can't do the above three points myself. Just because of the material needs, I have to endure humiliation and stay in the currency circle, staring at the market and watching the comments. Only in this way can I get first-hand information. Most importantly, I firmly believe that: in 2024, the bull market will definitely come!

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ
This is why most of the time, high interest rates are accompanied by economic recessions. Only economic recessions can effectively and quickly fight inflation. After the market is hit hard, the Federal Reserve will release water (QE) to reactivate the market. This cycle repeats itself. This process has gone through countless cycles.
I have said some nonsense again, and returned to the data of #BTC . As before, although the price of BTC has fallen below $66,000, it can be seen from the turnover rate on the chain that earlier investors are still not interested in turnover. In fact, since the price of $56,000, it has been said that low prices have made it increasingly difficult for current investors to hand over their chips. You don’t have to believe it, just wait and see.
For more investors, the bull market has not yet started. At least before the end of the first quarter of 2025, these investors are still looking forward to the arrival of the bull market. After all, the halving cycle, the US election, FASB, spot ETFs, etc. have not yet erupted. They have all experienced the wave of $56,000. What is $65,000? Really, this is not something I said casually. The wide range of fluctuations has exceeded three months. In 100 days, those who are impatient have already withdrawn. Those who can hold on until now are those who are waiting.
This is also why the support of $64,000 to $69,000 is still quite strong. I don’t know whether this range can be maintained and how long it can be maintained, but at least at the moment, this price still holds the largest amount of BTC, and these holders have not shown signs of large-scale turnover. The main turnover is still provided by short-term investors.
Early investors have no motivation to change hands, so even if the price of BTC falls below the "support level", it will rebound. This was also the case when it was $26,000. So unless investors at this position begin to panic and leave, I don't think it's that scary.
From the perspective of the BTC holdings of the exchange, after refreshing the lowest stock in nearly six years yesterday, there was a slight increase today, probably exceeding less than 5,000 BTC. It depends on after 4 a.m., but this excess is not much, just consume it. Tomorrow is the weekend, I don't know if it will be more difficult. After all, when liquidity is greatly reduced, it is very likely that the amplitude will increase accordingly.
#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿etc
Sometimes, it may be just a straw that breaks the camel's back, and today's University of Michigan's one-year inflation expectations acted as such a straw. In fact, in Powell's speech the day before yesterday, the Fed's inflation expectations (core PCE) for the end of 2024 have been raised from 2.6% to 2.8%. The Fed is not stupid. On the contrary, they are all the top smart people in the United States. What we can perceive, they must also be able to see.
Inflation is like a poison for the United States, and its antidote is most likely an economic recession. Some partners say that you see how good the US stock market is rising, and the Nasdaq has set a new high. However, if you look closely, you will know that only those heavyweight stocks are driving the rise, and more than 90% of other stocks are mostly falling. This is similar to BTC. When the spot ETF is approved, funds are all concentrated on BTC, and occasionally a little will flow to other assets.
But when the market is not good, more funds will only be concentrated on BTC. There may be ETH in a few months, but there is only BTC at present, so BTC is more resistant to declines, after all, there is support based on USD. For US stocks, AI can be regarded as a stimulant for technology stocks.
Therefore, most US stocks that are not related to AI have also performed poorly. For example, Nike, one of the kings in the field of footwear, has fallen by 30% since the beginning of 2024.
In fact, many friends and the Federal Reserve know that it will be an extremely slow process to achieve interest rate cuts by reducing inflation. To put it bluntly, the possibility of defensive interest rate cuts is extremely low. This is also the reason why there are few defensive interest rate cuts in the nearly 60-year history of the United States. When you try to defend, inflation will rebound, so you can only continue to raise interest rates.
So why do Powell and the Federal Reserve pay so much attention to the unemployment rate? Because for the United States, the way to judge an economic recession is different from that of most countries in the world. Many countries regard a recession as a decline in GDP for two consecutive quarters, while the United States pays more attention to the unemployment rate. A recession is only considered to occur when GDP falls and unemployment rises sharply.
#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

Two prerequisites for not changing positions easily:

First, the more you can hold the correct orders, the easier it is to close the positions at a good position.

Second, the premise of not cutting positions easily is to see the right and light positions.

Third, the premise of stop loss is to know right from wrong. Making a mistake and correcting it is called stop loss. Stop loss cannot stop opportunities at the same time. If you are sure it is wrong, you should stop loss immediately. If you are sure it is right, if the position is light during the callback, you can still increase the position instead of stop loss.

Fourth, you cannot set a stop loss based on the loss of funds, but you should see whether the analysis is correct. If it is not right, leave the market immediately. If it is right, it is normal even if you are trapped a little.

Fifth, hanging a stop loss order is untenable. Futures are counterparty transactions. It is okay to close one position, but if you want to close 10,000 positions, you cannot trade without enough counterparty.

Sixth, different capital scales require different entry and exit methods in terms of operational details.

Seventh, what should you do if you make a mistake? If you make a mistake, you should flee quickly. It is not only necessary to stop loss, but the key is to stop mistakes.

Eighth, stop loss is to stop mistakes and prevent them from expanding. Temporary losses are not necessarily mistakes, and temporary profits are not necessarily correct. If it is not wrong, don't stop, but if it is wrong, stop immediately.

Ninth, if it is wrong, you should run away immediately, and you can't drag your feet or hesitate. If you are sure that your order is wrong, you don't have to care about the point. As long as the opponent has an order, grab it quickly and close the position as soon as possible. This is one of the principles of trading.

Tenth, why is it difficult to close a position? This is because there is no real basis when entering the market, or even impulsive entry. After entering, you will be uneasy, so closing a position becomes a dilemma.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿

From the data this time, we can see that investors who made profits earlier are completely indifferent to the price drop and almost do not participate in the turnover. The data of BTC on the chain is the most fair, and no transfer will be missed. Therefore, the conclusion is that the so-called dog dealers will not smash the market unless they are losing money, and the whales will not leave the market unless they are losing money.
Because it is obvious from the data that 75% of the BTC involved in the turnover are investors who are losing money, and very few profitable investors leave the market. Let's think about how many wide fluctuations there are around $65,000. If they are undetermined investors, they would have left long ago. Those who hold it now want to continue waiting for the climax of the bull market. After all, the bull market after halving has not started yet.
On the other hand, the support of around $65,000 that has been mentioned for two months has not changed until now. Investors between $64,000 and $69,000 have not left the market on a large scale. Those who hold the largest amount of BTC do not leave, and those who can participate in the turnover are very limited. The main reason for the current price drop is still the liquidity problem. There is not enough depth. Even one BTC can cause the price to fall by $10,000. These people do not leave, not because they are stupid, but because they do not care about short-term prices at all.
Those who care about short-term prices have already changed hands, which is why the stock of BTC in the exchange is getting smaller and smaller, because most investors will not withdraw from the exchange if they want to participate in short-term turnover, and those who withdraw from the exchange have no intention of selling in the short term.
This is not what I said casually. It can be seen from the stock of the exchange that even if the price of BTC is falling now, it still refreshes the lowest stock value in the past six years. A large number of investors have not panicked about the current price, and the supporting investors have no signs of selling.
We can even clearly see that the amount of BTC transferred in and out of the exchange in recent working days is very low, which also proves what was said before, that most investors are not interested in participating in the turnover.
My personal opinion is that as long as the support is not broken, even if it falls below $65,000, it will rebound in a short time. The current situation is very similar to last year's $26,000.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ
There was indeed an increase 24 hours ago, but 24 hours ago, the price of BTC was actually about the same as it is now. It is equivalent to oscillating back to a similar position after a day.
Why is this happening? Everyone should understand that the decline was due to a significant increase in employment in the non-agricultural data, and the subsequent increase was due to the CPI data being lower than expected. The two data are actually competing with the Fed's dot plot in June, so the priority of the dot plot should be the highest in a quarter, second only to adjusting interest rates.
In layman's terms, as long as the interest rate adjustment is not involved every three months, the expectations brought by the dot plot are the greatest, followed by inflation, unemployment and other data. These data are all for adjusting interest rates. So before the dot plot came out, I said that three or more times are good news, two times are in line with expectations, slightly bad news, and one or less than one time is bad news.
So when the conclusion comes out, isn't it normal that the increase caused by CPI being lower than expected is wiped out? Then some friends will ask why it didn't fall immediately, but waited for so long. These friends probably didn't read my tweets for a long time, and may not be very clear about the "4 a.m." theory.
In other words, the time when American investors are more focused on the currency market is 4 a.m. and radiates out. The trading volume begins to rise 1 to 2 hours before 4 a.m., and the trading volume drops sharply 1 to 2 hours after 4 a.m. In layman's terms, after Powell's speech, the peak trading time in the US currency circle has basically passed, and after the opening of the US stock market today, the mood gradually began to ferment.
Then back to the question that friends are most concerned about, is it that the dog dealer is smashing the market now, are the giant whales starting to flee, and is the bull market over? I don't think so. From the data, although the news in the past 24 hours is bad, BTC has an extremely low turnover rate. This is what I have always emphasized before. It is difficult for investors to sell their BTC after the market is smashed.
#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

The dot plot is based on two rate cuts in 2024. If the number is greater than two, it is positive, less than two, it is negative, and equal to two is the market expectation. If the estimate of Powell's speech is correct, it still shows that inflation has not been fully controlled. It needs to be judged based on data. It is impossible to give a definite guarantee at present, among which the unemployment rate is crucial. As for whether his remarks are hawkish or dovish, it is difficult to determine.

In terms of data, we briefly browse. Although the current price of BTC has almost returned to $70,000, there has been no overreaction on the chain. Many investors have not participated in the transaction, but there is still a certain risk aversion, which is not difficult to understand. Anyway, after Powell's speech, there will be a short period of calm. Of course, there will be the University of Michigan's one-year inflation forecast on Friday, but compared with CPI and Powell's speech, its energy is relatively smaller.

We have also mentioned earlier that investors are not interested in the range from $56,000 to $72,000. If they are to participate in the transaction, the best way is to pull the market. If they rely on the market crash, these people will basically not move, and there are spot ETFs that are eyeing them, so the space that can be smashed will be extremely limited.

The support level is still between $64,000 and $69,000, and there is no change. The number of BTC in this range continues to increase, and it has now exceeded 2.48 million. As we have always said, if these holders do not leave the market on a large scale, the support of around $66,000 will not be easily broken. This does not mean that it will not fall below $66,000, but that even if it falls below it, it will be easier to rebound. After all, these investors did not participate in the sell-off, so the pressure must be limited.

Then the BTC on the exchange once again refreshed the lowest stock value in nearly six years, which also means that the vast majority of investors do not intend to participate in the transaction, and even have no intention of leaving the market in the short term, so the current pressure is relatively small, but the problem of liquidity shortage still exists, so the possibility of continued wide fluctuations cannot be ruled out.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

There are some main reasons why retail investors missed the bull market:

**Overinvestment and losses in the bear market**:
- Failure to stop losses in time at the beginning of the bear market resulted in a large loss of principal, which laid the foundation for a series of subsequent wrong decisions.
- Blindly adding positions in the medium term not only failed to recover losses, but further consumed all available funds, putting oneself in a more difficult situation.

** Mentality collapse and escape**:
- At the end of the bear market, facing huge capital losses, life pressure and negative news, the mentality completely collapsed, and chose to uninstall the exchange to escape, thus missing the opportunity to build a bottom.

** Lack of continuous attention to the market and correct judgment**:
- In the early stage of the bull market, there is still a bear market mentality, skeptical about the recovery of the market, and even if occasionally concerned, there is no courage to re-enter.
- Realized that the bull market is coming in the medium term, but could not participate due to funds being occupied or other reasons, so it could only be missed.

**Being swayed by emotions, chasing ups and downs**:
- In the late stage of the bull market, driven by greed, they took out the last funds to enter the market at a high level regardless of the risks, but ended up buying at the halfway point and suffered greater losses in the end.

For example, some retail investors kept covering their positions in the bear market and tried to buy at the bottom, but ended up getting deeper and deeper into the trap; and when the bull market came, they didn't believe it at first, and only chased highs after it rose a lot. Or they blindly followed the trend and bought when they saw a certain coin rising sharply, without considering the overall market situation and risks. For another example, after experiencing losses in the early stage, they dared not try again easily even if the market improved, or exaggerated their previous failures, resulting in missing opportunities that should have been seized.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿

You will find that tomorrow's CPI and the Fed's interest rate meeting a few hours after the CPI will make the market more anxious, and even if these data are over, there will be new macro data next week that will make the market continue to be anxious.

Well, I know everyone wants to ask why it fell so badly. From my personal understanding, risk aversion may be the main reason. I also tweeted before that the CPI data is not ideal, and the market's inflation expectations will at least not fall. How can the Fed cut interest rates with a non-falling CPI and a growing labor force? Yes, so don't say that there will be no movement in June, and there will be no movement in July. As for whether there will be movement in September, it depends on the next data.

Although I don't plan to talk about too much data today, I will still talk about the current situation on the chain from four aspects. This is also the reason why I am not anxious, because everything is in an orderly wide range of fluctuations. We have said the four words "wide range of fluctuations" many times. I don't know how many friends still remember and need to adapt. Before there is more clear information, wide fluctuations are likely to continue for a long time, which may exceed the imagination of many of us.

First, from the data, many friends are worried that it is the dog dealer who is dumping the market or the ETF investors who have run away. In fact, it should not be. Although there was an inexplicable turnover of 16,000 BTC at $3,600, the largest turnover still came from investors who bought BTC in the past week. The reason why it may not be the dog dealer is that these chips are all loss-making. The dog dealer would rather lose money than dump the market. I dare say you don’t dare to believe it.

As for the selling of ETFs, there may be, but compared with the turnover that occurred today, the gap is too big. And the second point is that the support around $65,000 is still intact, and $64,000 to $69,000 is still the largest position at this stage, and there has been no large-scale selling. It has been said many times before that the current wide range of fluctuations is centered on $65,000 (US$66,000). If this structure is not destroyed, it is likely to remain the same.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ
Detailed interpretation of the content of the money-making rules:

**Trend**:
- Emphasizes the importance of following the trend. The trend of the times often contains huge opportunities, such as the current trend of digitalization and intelligence. Being able to keenly capture and follow these trends is like taking a fast-moving train.
- Industry trends are also key. Different industries will have different development trends at different times. Entering an industry that is in a rising period often has a greater chance of success. For example, the rise of the Internet industry in the past and the booming development of the new energy industry today.

**High value**:
- Focusing on high-value areas means being able to obtain richer returns. With limited resources, focusing on the most valuable parts can maximize benefits.
- The 80/20 rule is indeed ubiquitous. Whether it is wealth distribution or business focus, grasping the key 20% often brings 80% of the results.

**Patience**:
- Success requires time to accumulate and settle. It takes three years to initially adapt and understand an industry, and five years to truly understand the doorway, and ten years or even longer to persist in order to become a leader in the field. During this period, you need to be patient, keep learning and improving.
- It is often difficult to achieve real and lasting success if you are impatient.

**Cycle**:
- Each industry has its own development cycle and rhythm, and it is very important to accurately grasp this cycle. Active action in the upward cycle can easily achieve results; while over-investment in the downward cycle may lead to wasted efforts.
- The example of farmers planting vividly illustrates the importance of cycles. Different seasons have different tasks and goals. The same is true in the business field. Resources and actions should be reasonably planned according to industry cycles.

For example, in the boom cycle of the real estate industry, investment and development often can obtain high profits; while in the trough period, cautious decision-making is required. Similarly, entering the early stage of the emerging technology industry may achieve great success with the explosive growth of the industry. In short, understanding and using these money-making rules can help people be smoother and wiser in the pursuit of wealth.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

Since 23:00 Beijing time, the price of BTC has risen and exceeded $70,000. Obviously, everyone knows the reason. It is true that the market relaxed a little after the New York Fed released its one-year inflation expectations. However, the focus is still on the US May CPI data released at 8 pm on Wednesday and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting released at 2 am on Thursday.

In terms of importance, both today's New York Fed data and Wednesday's CPI data actually provide a basis for the Fed's decision-making. Therefore, the interest rate meeting in the early hours of Thursday is more important. Of course, there is nothing worth paying attention to in the meeting itself. After all, the interest rate in June will not change, and even the possibility of a rate cut in July is not great. There are two key points, one is the dot plot, and the other is Powell's speech. The former is more important and will have a greater impact on prices.

Back to the data of BTC, although the price of BTC broke through $70,000 in stages after the opening of the US stock market, the turnover rate of BTC on the chain remained at a low level and did not change substantially. After all, investors nowadays are very smart, and fewer and fewer people are participating in turnover in this volatile market.

It can be clearly seen from the data that earlier investors have hardly changed and have always maintained a calm attitude. After all, the wide range of fluctuations has lasted for a long time, and the undetermined chips have been almost cleaned up. Except for some investors who specialize in short-term trading, everyone is waiting for the real moment of change, and they are not ready for large-scale turnover before that.

To put it bluntly, when there is a large amount of turnover including earlier investors, when the support of $64,000 to $69,000 begins to be broken, it may be the time when the market will change significantly. Of course, it is more likely to fall. After all, it is possible that the support will not be broken when it rises. The first three supports are the best examples.

From the perspective of exchange inventory, although the change on Monday was still small, it once again refreshed the lowest inventory value in nearly six years. This also shows that the vast majority of BTC is waiting for the outbreak brought by halving. From the detailed data, even if the BTC price hovers around $70,000, there is no sign of large-scale reduction or large-scale purchase.It is estimated that the trading volume will not expand until after 4 am.

#BTC #ETH