#内容挖矿

You will find that tomorrow's CPI and the Fed's interest rate meeting a few hours after the CPI will make the market more anxious, and even if these data are over, there will be new macro data next week that will make the market continue to be anxious.

Well, I know everyone wants to ask why it fell so badly. From my personal understanding, risk aversion may be the main reason. I also tweeted before that the CPI data is not ideal, and the market's inflation expectations will at least not fall. How can the Fed cut interest rates with a non-falling CPI and a growing labor force? Yes, so don't say that there will be no movement in June, and there will be no movement in July. As for whether there will be movement in September, it depends on the next data.

Although I don't plan to talk about too much data today, I will still talk about the current situation on the chain from four aspects. This is also the reason why I am not anxious, because everything is in an orderly wide range of fluctuations. We have said the four words "wide range of fluctuations" many times. I don't know how many friends still remember and need to adapt. Before there is more clear information, wide fluctuations are likely to continue for a long time, which may exceed the imagination of many of us.

First, from the data, many friends are worried that it is the dog dealer who is dumping the market or the ETF investors who have run away. In fact, it should not be. Although there was an inexplicable turnover of 16,000 BTC at $3,600, the largest turnover still came from investors who bought BTC in the past week. The reason why it may not be the dog dealer is that these chips are all loss-making. The dog dealer would rather lose money than dump the market. I dare say you don’t dare to believe it.

As for the selling of ETFs, there may be, but compared with the turnover that occurred today, the gap is too big. And the second point is that the support around $65,000 is still intact, and $64,000 to $69,000 is still the largest position at this stage, and there has been no large-scale selling. It has been said many times before that the current wide range of fluctuations is centered on $65,000 (US$66,000). If this structure is not destroyed, it is likely to remain the same.

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