#内容挖矿＃CHZ

In the past week, the market has been extremely volatile, and almost all of the changes are closely related to key macro data. In the first event, the non-farm payrolls data released by the United States on June 11th far exceeded expectations, causing the price of Bitcoin to plummet by more than 5%; then, on June 12th, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was 0.1% lower than expected, and the price of Bitcoin rose sharply by more than 5%; finally, on June 13th, the dot plot released by the Federal Reserve showed that the rate cut was lower than market expectations, and Bitcoin fell sharply by nearly 5% again. In just three days, the market experienced two roller coaster-like ups and downs, and many trend traders were deeply troubled by the repeated operations of the main institutions. This situation basically confirms the view that whether there will be a rate cut in September has become one of the most critical game points in the flow of funds in the second half of the year.

Among these three key macroeconomic events, the most eye-catching market reaction occurred when the inflation data was released on June 12th. Although the actual consumer price index (CPI) was only 0.1% lower than expected, within the reasonable error range, the market regarded this nuance as a major positive, suggesting that the market's excessive emphasis on macro data has almost reached a pathological level.

This enthusiasm for macro data reflects that in the absence of a strong cryptocurrency narrative logic, the market can only pin its expectations on loose liquidity policies for valuation space. Therefore, for leveraged traders, the timing of each future macro data release should be treated with extreme caution.

At present, the interest rate swap market shows that market participants generally expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points this year, but there are significant differences in market opinions on whether the first rate cut will be implemented in September. In the past week, with the release of a series of macro data, the swap market has been fluctuating sharply between 50% and 70% for the possibility of a rate cut in September. In this context of unclear expectations, if the rate cut in September is in line with expectations, it will mean that the timing of policy easing is advanced, and it also indicates that the magnitude of the easing policy may exceed market expectations (2-3 rate cuts).

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