1. Due to high housing prices and high interest rates, housing affordability in the United States is at a multi-decade low, and insurance and property taxes, as well as rising utility bills and other living costs, have not helped much

2. China's stock market has fallen to its lowest point in January 2019. Can the A-share market maintain 3,000 points? What do you think?

3. As of now, there is only a 15% chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut (Figure 1)

4. In the first quarter of 2024, the global debt scale reached 315 trillion US dollars, soaring by 15 trillion US dollars in 12 months, accounting for about 330% of the world's 83596371349. Simply put, there is a large imbalance between debt and GDP, which will lead to a series of problems

5. Just today, the ECB cut its benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points, a total of 50 basis points.

The dilemma facing the ECB now is to either continue to implement loose policies to maintain economic growth or slow down the pace of easing to ensure that inflation above the target is rewarded lastingly. Of course, this also has a great impact on the US dollar.

In addition, the US data for August 00264864608 showed that the inflation rate fell to 1.7%, lower than the expected 1.8%, and the core PPI inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.5%. PPI inflation is currently at its lowest level since February 2024, so as always, bet on the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

6. The realized price of Ethereum illustrates the average cost of different investor groups, among which large investors holding $10,000 to $100,000 54714410120 have an average cost of $1,868, while smaller investors have a cost of $1,318 to $2,195. Combined with historical data, this may be a potential opportunity to buy $ETH (Figure 2)

7. FTX#FTTIn the fourth quarter of this year, $16 billion in cash will be redistributed to creditors. Let's assume that if this money flows into the cryptocurrency market, will it drive the price up? (Figure 3)

8. Harris's election probability rose to 50% after the debate, while #Trump's was 49%. Friends who play cryptocurrency #Crypto🚀🚀 , what do you think about this?

9. From the Bitcoin liquidation chart, please pay attention to the position above $BTC at 58490 (Figure 4)

1. Elon Musk said: Regulations will never die unless someone is willing to abolish them. Regulations are immortal. Unless someone really destroys them, they will never die. Many times, regulations may be made for various legitimate reasons.

2. The US #两年期国债收益率 is falling, indicating that #降息 is coming soon. If recession concerns are reduced, the market may rebound soon. From historical data, before the Fed cuts interest rates, the 2-year Treasury yield tends to fall, which is what we are seeing now (Figure 1)

3. PCE inflation has recently been moving in a healthy direction. If this trend continues for another three months, the United States may return to pre-COVID-19 inflation levels. Later today, we will see #CPI Data

Unless inflation is unexpectedly high, the Fed will start cutting rates this month, but the impact on the market will depend on the speed of the cut, whether it is 25 basis points or 50 basis points. The analysis is in my previous tweets

But as of the time of posting, the market predicts a 28% chance of a 50 basis point cut, while a 72% chance of a 25 basis point cut

4. Cryptocurrency assets outflowed $726 million. The market is in a low mood in the short term amid concerns about economic growth and political uncertainty

5. As of today, Bitcoin #BTC mining difficulty hit a new record high (Figure 2)

6. In the past six months, short-term holders of Bitcoin #STH have been losing money on their chips, which is the largest $BTC sell-off in this cycle

7. The market is betting on Harris and Trump's election votes at 49% each, and the current situation is awkward (Figure 3)

8. If Bitcoin rebounds and creates a bullish divergence, it will be $BTC Great buying opportunity (Figure 4)

1. Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics has created different versions of #Sam's Rule, focusing on the 25-54 age group, indicating a recent sharp divergence from the overall unemployment rate version, which suggests a low risk of recession

2. If inflation continues to fall, the federal funds rate is expected to fall from the current 5.25% to 5.5% range to 3% to 3.5% next year, and the Fed is expected to gradually cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at each recent meeting

But if the labor market deteriorates, a further 50 basis points cut is possible. This rate cut will put downward pressure on short-term interest rates, but at the same time help maintain stability

3. The market value of stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong has evaporated by $6.5 trillion, down from the peak three years ago (Figure 1)

4. According to reports: Huang Renxun sold #NVDA stocks worth more than $53 million last week

5. In the past two years, China's stimulus to the market has had no effect, foreign capital has fled, and domestic investors have mostly turned to real estate, becoming a solid buyer (Figure 2)

6. The market is confident that $#美联储 will cut interest rates at the #FOMC meeting in September. Federal Funds Futures show that there is a 70% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 30% chance of a 50 basis point cut

7. After the arrest of Telegram founder Durov, $TON network activity exploded, with daily transaction volume soaring to more than 10 million, an increase of 160%, and active addresses also surged (Figure 3)

8. Many clowns with a large number of fans on Twitter are spreading false information, saying that the bear market has arrived. Now it’s just that $BTC has not continued to rise, and it’s just a short break. It’s very common for risky assets to adjust and go sideways in a bull market

9. Market forecasts show that a Republican sweep or a Democratic split government is the most likely thing.#Harrishas a 49% chance of winning, but #特朗普 is gaining momentum in September

10. Bitcoin short-term holders #STH Faced with pressure, the market weakness has not forced enough short-term investors to surrender and passively become#LTHlong-term holders. Currently, about 95% of short-term investors' assets are in a loss state. They are facing psychological and financial pressure, which directly increases the possibility of panic selling (Figure 4)

11. In the past 7 days, the total supply of#Ethereumhas increased by about 15,000 Ethereum, with a total increase of 1.80,000 and destroyed 2,000 $ETH

There is significant deflation in China this year, economic concerns will continue to intensify, and yields have hit a record low (Figure 1)

2. The Federal Reserve is now in a dilemma. Cutting interest rates is equivalent to opening the floodgates, which will lead to the formation of asset bubbles. If interest rates remain unchanged, it will lead to recession.

China’s real estate stock prices are close to the lowest level in 20 years, and related stocks have fallen by more than 90% in 4 years. Therefore, the artificially driven economy often does not last long. It is a pity that people who take over

4. For risk assets, the main problem currently is the market’s concerns about the direction of the U.S. economy, which means that $BTC will face the embarrassing situation of falling into a liquidity crisis.

5. Bitcoin spot ETFs suffered heavy losses last week, with total outflows reaching US$700 million. None of the 12#ETFssaw capital inflows, of which $GBTC had an outflow of US$160 million and $FBTC had an outflow of US$400 million (Figure 2)

6. Ethereum $ETH has a bullish divergence and has formed higher lows. The downtrend of the past few months may be broken, which may have a significant boost to the entire market.

7. According to the heat liquidation chart, we need to pay attention to the position of 54200 below Bitcoin $BTC (Figure 3)

8. The 2-year Treasury bond yield in the United States is falling. The market expects that with the economic slowdown, interest rate cuts and further loosening of policies, the US dollar index has fallen back. In terms of macroeconomics and market liquidity, a rapid economic flash crash has been proven. Bad for Bitcoin
However, it turns out that the gradual slowdown in gold demand is a good buy signal for Bitcoin in the next quarter.

So now into the fourth quarter, what we need to pay attention to is the degree of slowdown in the U.S. economy and the global economy, as well as the central bank's response to economic data (ease or panic, including the degree of control). These factors are very important to the global market.

9. US inflation and core inflation and producer price index are very important data this week, including the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index which will also provide us with signs of the direction of the economy as it is the last inflation data before the #FOMC

If the economy declines and unemployment rises, the Fed may slowly implement quantitative easing, but inflation will come back. If#Fedstarts quantitative easing, Bitcoin and other risk assets will rise

10. 72% of Binance retailers are long cryptocurrencies (Figure 4)

Market sentiment may be low right now, but history shows that such low times often herald big gains in the#cryptocurrencyand #WEB3 sectors

With#Bitcoin$BTC #BTCWith global liquidity near all-time highs and expected to increase, Q4 2024 could spark a major rally in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies for the following reasons:

1. Despite the current market panic, historical patterns show that major price increases tend to occur during periods of low sentiment, as evidenced by the Fear & Greed Index

2. Major institutions are actively increasing their holdings of cryptocurrencies, demonstrating long-term confidence and likely driving future price increases

3. Global liquidity is about to expand, driven by expected central bank rate cuts, which has historically been associated with higher Bitcoin prices and broader gains in the cryptocurrency market

4. The reset of the Fear & Greed Index and increased institutional investment and global liquidity suggest that Q4 2024 could mark the start of a major bull run in the cryptocurrency market

If there is no breakout in Q4 2024, we may view this as an extended cycle

This could indicate that the consolidation phase will continue into Q1 2025, potentially leading to a longer#bullmarket and higher gains, as we’ll soon know $ETH $SOL

Cryptocurrency evening summary:

a. Due to the low layoff rate and the decline in weekly unemployment claims in the United States, the number of initial unemployment claims fell by 5,000 to 227,000 last week. Despite the decline in job vacancies, the labor market continued to strengthen. Fewer layoffs eased concerns about the sluggish labor market. Due to the slowdown in recruitment, #美联储 may consider a small interest rate cut at the upcoming meeting (Figure 1)

b. The U.S. federal debt hit a record high, and the public debt reached 35.3 trillion U.S. dollars for the first time, an increase of 64 billion U.S. dollars in just one day, which is equivalent to 123% of the U.S. $#GDP . At this rate, it will reach 36.3T U.S. dollars by the end of 2024

c. Before the post, Bitcoin $BTC is being challenged by META, and the price of Ethereum $ETH is constantly being crushed. At least this is the case for now. Bitcoin is still in a range-bound state, and there is no obvious catalyst to drive the rise for the time being (Figure 2)

d. Let's talk about altcoins #山寨币 After the first wave of rise in Q1, the current consolidation and re-accumulation are normal, and the second wave of rise will follow #Bitcoin, which is often the biggest stretch in the cycle

e. Bitcoin strengthened again in the US trading session this week. It has experienced panic selling in almost every market opening trading session. The focus now is on the non-farm data on Friday night

f. The current Bitcoin#MVRVZ-score is 1.47. Usually MVRV Z-score>5 indicates an overbought state, indicating that the price of Bitcoin may be approaching a high point, and <span Bitcoin's current price is lower than the purchase price, which indicates that the market is undervalued

g. Bitcoin #SOPR Indicator is based on 6-week SMA7 days. According to the chart #LTH, long-term holders are in a continuous buying trend while short-term holders#STHare in a selling trend (Figure 3)

h. From the global money supply #M2 and the M2 chart issued by the Federal Reserve's economic data, Bitcoin#BTCBull markets always coincide with the expansion of global liquidity, so as liquidity gradually expands, we are still in a bull market (Figure 4)

i. Goldman Sachs strategists say the tax policies promoted in the US#presidentialelection may have a significant impact on #S&P500 index earnings $BTC $ETH

#加密货币 Evening sorting

a. Transportation stocks fell rapidly, while unemployment began to rise. Since 1970, whenever the transportation sector weakened rapidly, a recession often followed soon after. At the same time, consumer stocks also performed poorly, indicating that#USconsumers are weakening. When consumers are weak, households will cut spending, which will slow the economy and increase the possibility of recession. Some economic-related sectors (such as housing construction) are still resilient, which suggests that the United States still has some time before a full-scale recession hits (Figure 1)

b. PCE year-on-year inflation remains stable #美联储 has all the data for rate cuts. Of course, some small rate cuts will not have a positive impact on Bitcoin. Overall, financial conditions are already quite loose, so this will not produce a step change. The reasons are explained in detail in this article: https://reurl.cc/ReqR6G

c. Data covering 29,597 emerging market funds show that stock funds have experienced outflows for the 12th consecutive week, with a net amount of US$419 million, and investors have turned to#bondfunds $1.04 billion was injected, the largest amount in seven weeks (Figure 2)

d. August #以太坊 The on-chain lending market liquidation reached $436 million, the second highest in history $ETH The 22% price plunge played a big role, accounting for $289 million on Aave

e. The number of daily active addresses of Celo stablecoins is showing a strong upward trend and may soon surpass Tron. Stabila is working with major players such as Valora and Trust Wallet to further promote adoption (Figure 3)

f. AI-powered 2024 presidential campaign predictions, chatbots now support Harris instead of Trump

g. Bitcoin #BTC Short-term holders have sold 642,366 coins since mid-August $BTC It seems that they are all cutting their losses and leaving the market. Some people say that the collapse of the stock market will benefit risky assets. What do you think about this?

h. Comparison of altcoins #比特币 has been bleeding. Compared with the previous few days, the trend of#altcoinhas improved slightly (Figure 4)