1. Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics has created a different version of #萨姆规则 , focusing on the 25-54 age group, showing that the recent sharp divergence from the overall unemployment rate suggests that there is little risk of a recession.

2. If inflation continues to fall, the federal funds rate is expected to drop from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to 3% to 3.5% next year. The Federal Reserve is expected to gradually lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at each of its recent meetings.

However, if the labor market deteriorates, a further 50 basis point cut is possible, which would put downward pressure on short-term interest rates but help maintain stability.

3. The market value of stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong has evaporated by US$6.5 trillion, which is lower than the peak three years ago (Figure 1)

4. According to reports: Huang Renxun sold more than $53 million worth of #NVDA stock last week

5. In the past two years, China's efforts to stimulate the market have had no effect, and foreign capital has fled. Domestic investors have mostly turned to real estate and have become the undisputed receivers (Figure 2)

6. The market is confident that the rate will be cut at the September meeting, with Fed Funds futures indicating a 70% chance of a 25bp cut and a 30% chance of a 50bp cut.

7. After the arrest of Telegram founder Durov, $TON network activity exploded, with daily transaction volume soaring to more than 10 million, an increase of 160%, and active addresses also surged (Figure 3)

8. Many clowns with a large number of followers on Twitter spread false information, saying that the bear market has arrived. Now it is just that $BTC has not continued to rise, and it is just a short break. It is very common for risky assets to adjust and go sideways in a bull market.

9. Market forecasts suggest a Republican sweep or a split Democratic government is the most likely scenario.#Harrishas a 49% chance of winning, but#Trumpis gaining momentum in September

10. Bitcoin short-term holders#STHare under pressure. The market weakness has not forced enough short-term investors to surrender and passively become#LTHlong-term holders. Currently, about 95% of short-term investors' assets are in a loss state. They are facing psychological and financial pressure, which directly increases the possibility of panic selling (Figure 4)

11. In the past 7 days #Ethereum the total supply increased by about 15,000 Ethereum, a total of 18,000 additional $ETH were issued and 2,000 $ETH were destroyed