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Cryptocurrency evening summary
1. Latest news: Russian Defense Minister Belousov arrives in Beijing to hold talks with Qing military and political leaders
2. The interesting thing about Harris is that she released the Black Agenda to try to increase the support of black men before the election because they are worried that they may fall behind Trump. Is this playing to the charm of the opposite sex?
3. About $400 million flowed into#cryptocurrencyfunds last week as the political scene heats up, with Republicans #特朗普 gaining more momentum than Democrats Harris and re-boosting the market
4. Whether the Republicans or Democrats win the election, the average return of the market in the election year is positive, so we don't have to worry. Since 1928, the average return of the #标普500 index in the election year is 11.3%, and 19 out of 23 years, about 83%, have performed well.
2. The interesting thing about Harris is that she released the Black Agenda to try to increase the support of black men before the election because they are worried that they may fall behind Trump. Is this playing to the charm of the opposite sex?
3. About $400 million flowed into#cryptocurrencyfunds last week as the political scene heats up, with Republicans #特朗普 gaining more momentum than Democrats Harris and re-boosting the market
4. Whether the Republicans or Democrats win the election, the average return of the market in the election year is positive, so we don't have to worry. Since 1928, the average return of the #标普500 index in the election year is 11.3%, and 19 out of 23 years, about 83%, have performed well.
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Cryptocurrency evening summary
1. Reuters: Iran has launched two satellites,#Kowsarand #Hodhod, to Russia, expanding cooperation between the two countries in space amid US concerns
2. Breaking news: IDF attacks Beitlong, northern Lebanon. The village of Deirbila in Beitlong, northern Lebanon, was hit by airstrikes, about 70 miles from the Israeli border, while Israel continues its military offensive against Gaza.
3. Investors have never been so optimistic #美股 Data shows that investors' allocation to stocks has reached 61%, which is the highest level in 40 years
4. Daqing's retail sales increased by 2.1% year-on-year (Figure 1)
2. Breaking news: IDF attacks Beitlong, northern Lebanon. The village of Deirbila in Beitlong, northern Lebanon, was hit by airstrikes, about 70 miles from the Israeli border, while Israel continues its military offensive against Gaza.
3. Investors have never been so optimistic #美股 Data shows that investors' allocation to stocks has reached 61%, which is the highest level in 40 years
4. Daqing's retail sales increased by 2.1% year-on-year (Figure 1)
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Cryptocurrency evening summary
1. Obama is campaigning for Harris: He encouraged black people not to sit idly by in the election, and believed that some people did not want to see a female president in the United States. When he made this statement, Harris was stepping up efforts to regain the final victory. Friends, who do you hope will be elected as the next president of the United States?
2. Latest news: North Korea threatens to wage war against South Korean drones. North Korea claims that South Korean drones recently flew over Pyongyang, allegedly dropping anti-North Korean propaganda, and threatens South Korea that it will use all means to attack if this happens again. A few days ago, North Korea vowed that it would not clash with South Korea.
2. Latest news: North Korea threatens to wage war against South Korean drones. North Korea claims that South Korean drones recently flew over Pyongyang, allegedly dropping anti-North Korean propaganda, and threatens South Korea that it will use all means to attack if this happens again. A few days ago, North Korea vowed that it would not clash with South Korea.
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Cryptocurrency evening summary
1. India has approved a $5.4 billion plan to build two new nuclear-powered submarines, an effort to strengthen its naval capabilities amid growing tensions with the Qing dynasty. These submarines are said to be faster and stealthier than traditional submarines.
2. The death sentence of Fan Yifei, former vice president of the Bank of Qing, was commuted to life imprisonment. Because he accepted bribes of more than 386 million yuan, he was sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve. After the reprieve, his sentence will be commuted to life imprisonment without parole.
3. The global money supply has reached an all-time high of $107 trillion. In addition, the US #降息 50PB may disappoint us. A large interest rate cut will cause the market to worry about economic recession (inflation rose by 2.4% in September, and the number of initial unemployment claims soared to the highest level in more than a year, that is, inflation is too high and unemployment rate is rising)
2. The death sentence of Fan Yifei, former vice president of the Bank of Qing, was commuted to life imprisonment. Because he accepted bribes of more than 386 million yuan, he was sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve. After the reprieve, his sentence will be commuted to life imprisonment without parole.
3. The global money supply has reached an all-time high of $107 trillion. In addition, the US #降息 50PB may disappoint us. A large interest rate cut will cause the market to worry about economic recession (inflation rose by 2.4% in September, and the number of initial unemployment claims soared to the highest level in more than a year, that is, inflation is too high and unemployment rate is rising)
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Cryptocurrency evening summary
1. Hezbollah fired 300 rockets at Israel in a matter of minutes, hitting Safed. Their targets were Israeli towns. Reports have confirmed that Safed was directly hit as tensions escalated in the region.
2. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said: Our war is the war of the free world. There is only one war in the world. The war with Iran is not just our war, but the war of the free world. What do you think of this?
3. As of this year, the number of bankruptcies in the United States has reached 512, which is the highest number since the 2020 COVID-19 crisis (518 bankruptcies). Therefore, in terms of the economy, individual indicators are not strong (Figure 1)
2. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said: Our war is the war of the free world. There is only one war in the world. The war with Iran is not just our war, but the war of the free world. What do you think of this?
3. As of this year, the number of bankruptcies in the United States has reached 512, which is the highest number since the 2020 COVID-19 crisis (518 bankruptcies). Therefore, in terms of the economy, individual indicators are not strong (Figure 1)
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Cryptocurrency evening summary
1. North Korean leader said: We will never attack South Korea. The idea of seeking a strong unification of the Korean Peninsula is unthinkable. We have never thought of attacking the Republic of Korea.
2. Israel warns Lebanese evacuees not to return to their homes, #以色列 IDF continues to attack villages and nearby locations, and interestingly Hezbollah fired about 85 rockets today, followed by a new attack, but there are no reports of casualties from the previous attack
3. The Qing stock market plunged amidst large fluctuations and record trading volume.#HangSeng Technology once fell by more than 15%. The rise in mainland stocks reflects the pricing gap during the holiday period. However, today's NDRC press conference was dull. No new policies were announced. It mainly elaborated on existing policies, emphasized execution and boosted confidence in achieving the 5% growth target. Therefore, the market sold off quickly. Regardless of good or bad news, today's market ushered in an epic decline. In the long run, the Qing Dynasty must refocus on the economy rather than the stock market to have a sustainable bull market. As of 2023, the debt of the Qing Dynasty will account for 311% of GDP, which is twice that of 2008 (about 150%) (Figure 1)
2. Israel warns Lebanese evacuees not to return to their homes, #以色列 IDF continues to attack villages and nearby locations, and interestingly Hezbollah fired about 85 rockets today, followed by a new attack, but there are no reports of casualties from the previous attack
3. The Qing stock market plunged amidst large fluctuations and record trading volume.#HangSeng Technology once fell by more than 15%. The rise in mainland stocks reflects the pricing gap during the holiday period. However, today's NDRC press conference was dull. No new policies were announced. It mainly elaborated on existing policies, emphasized execution and boosted confidence in achieving the 5% growth target. Therefore, the market sold off quickly. Regardless of good or bad news, today's market ushered in an epic decline. In the long run, the Qing Dynasty must refocus on the economy rather than the stock market to have a sustainable bull market. As of 2023, the debt of the Qing Dynasty will account for 311% of GDP, which is twice that of 2008 (about 150%) (Figure 1)
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Cryptocurrency evening summary
1. Israel launched air strikes on several areas in southern Lebanon, and the strike further escalated tensions, with many residents fleeing the affected areas
2. The US public debt has reached a record high of 35.7 trillion. Since September 27, the public debt has increased by 345 billion, or more than 100 billion per day.
From 2020 to now, the federal debt has soared by 12.5 trillion, while the US GDP has only increased by 7.1 trillion. In other words, the growth rate of the federal debt is almost twice that of the world's largest economy. Isn't it terrible?
And #国债 accounts for 123% of GDP. It may only be a matter of time before it exceeds 126% in 2020 (the highest record).
2. The US public debt has reached a record high of 35.7 trillion. Since September 27, the public debt has increased by 345 billion, or more than 100 billion per day.
From 2020 to now, the federal debt has soared by 12.5 trillion, while the US GDP has only increased by 7.1 trillion. In other words, the growth rate of the federal debt is almost twice that of the world's largest economy. Isn't it terrible?
And #国债 accounts for 123% of GDP. It may only be a matter of time before it exceeds 126% in 2020 (the highest record).
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Nine indicators to help you buy at the bottom and sell at the top #BTC
1. Price Power Law
A power law is a mathematical principle that describes a functional relationship between two quantities where one quantity varies as the power of the other.
Taking Bitcoin as an example, the power law model can help us find the fair value (red line) and expected bottom (orange) of Bitcoin.
Usually the part reaching the red line (minus two standard deviations) is in the fixed investment range
When it reaches the orange part, it is the bottom.
When the green part (positive two standard deviations) is reached, it is in the batch escape range.
Of course, the price power law needs to be combined with multiple indicators (bottom range, fair value, etc.)
2. Bottom range
Some friends may ask, when is the relative bottom? You can refer to the indicators in the figure below to make decisions
A power law is a mathematical principle that describes a functional relationship between two quantities where one quantity varies as the power of the other.
Taking Bitcoin as an example, the power law model can help us find the fair value (red line) and expected bottom (orange) of Bitcoin.
Usually the part reaching the red line (minus two standard deviations) is in the fixed investment range
When it reaches the orange part, it is the bottom.
When the green part (positive two standard deviations) is reached, it is in the batch escape range.
Of course, the price power law needs to be combined with multiple indicators (bottom range, fair value, etc.)
2. Bottom range
Some friends may ask, when is the relative bottom? You can refer to the indicators in the figure below to make decisions
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Cryptocurrency evening summary
1. Mark Cuban said: We speculate on what Trump is doing with the economy and everything, but without the war, everything is so good under the leadership of #特朗普
2. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba warned that Japan's declining birth rate and population decline pose a serious threat to the country's foundations, describing it as an emergency in a policy speech
3. Iranian Swordsman: Palestinians have every right to fight Israel. The Lebanese people are defending their land and they need assistance and support to resist the attack.
4. The US economy contracted more than expected, with 254,000 expected and 147,000 expected. In addition, the unemployment rate returned to 4.1% (from 4.2% in August and 4.3% in July, far below the historical average of 5.7%). The Sam rule is likely to expire next month (Figure 1)
2. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba warned that Japan's declining birth rate and population decline pose a serious threat to the country's foundations, describing it as an emergency in a policy speech
3. Iranian Swordsman: Palestinians have every right to fight Israel. The Lebanese people are defending their land and they need assistance and support to resist the attack.
4. The US economy contracted more than expected, with 254,000 expected and 147,000 expected. In addition, the unemployment rate returned to 4.1% (from 4.2% in August and 4.3% in July, far below the historical average of 5.7%). The Sam rule is likely to expire next month (Figure 1)
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Cryptocurrency evening summary
1. Ukrainian President Zelensky said on October 1 that#Ukrainiancompanies can currently produce 4 million drones per year, and Ukraine has contracted for the domestic production of 1.5 million drones
Interestingly, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently announced that Russia plans to increase drone production tenfold to 1.4 million by 2024, which is less than the 2 million drones Ukraine plans to produce by 2024. Earlier, there were reports that Russia was secretly manufacturing drones in a certain country.
2. After yesterday's report that the second-in-command cashed out his shares, Apple CEO Cook also sold more than 220,000 shares of#AAPLthis week, worth about $50 million. Is he going to run away with all the money?
Interestingly, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently announced that Russia plans to increase drone production tenfold to 1.4 million by 2024, which is less than the 2 million drones Ukraine plans to produce by 2024. Earlier, there were reports that Russia was secretly manufacturing drones in a certain country.
2. After yesterday's report that the second-in-command cashed out his shares, Apple CEO Cook also sold more than 220,000 shares of#AAPLthis week, worth about $50 million. Is he going to run away with all the money?
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Cryptocurrency evening summary
1. As the risk of conflict increases, some countries are preparing to evacuate their citizens from Lebanon. The governments of the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Spain have arranged military flights, and Cyprus and Turkey are also ready to assist in the repatriation operation.
2. Reuters: Italian President Meloni called on G7 leaders today to resolve the escalating Middle East crisis, focusing on stabilizing the border between Israel and Lebanon. She stressed that Italy, as the current chair of the G7, will be committed to a diplomatic solution and suggested strengthening the UN peacekeeping mission. Despite the recent violence,#Italystill has no plans to withdraw UNIFIL from Lebanon
2. Reuters: Italian President Meloni called on G7 leaders today to resolve the escalating Middle East crisis, focusing on stabilizing the border between Israel and Lebanon. She stressed that Italy, as the current chair of the G7, will be committed to a diplomatic solution and suggested strengthening the UN peacekeeping mission. Despite the recent violence,#Italystill has no plans to withdraw UNIFIL from Lebanon
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Cryptocurrency evening summary
1. Qing citizens arrested in Germany for espionage, Source: ABC
2. Shigeru Ishiba was elected as the new prime minister. He succeeded Fumio Kishida, who had been defense minister, after winning the party election. He called for early elections on October 27.
3. In the past week, capital inflows into US large-cap stocks dominated, while broad stock#ETFsoutflows were nearly $4 billion, but overall bond capital flows were positive (Figure 1)
4. The manufacturing industry in Qing Dynasty further contracted in September. The manufacturing PMI index of Qing Dynasty fell to 49.3 points, lower than the expected 50.5 (usually below 50 means contraction), while new orders fell to 47.5, the lowest level since 2022, indicating that the manufacturing industry in Qing Dynasty will further weaken (Figure 2)
2. Shigeru Ishiba was elected as the new prime minister. He succeeded Fumio Kishida, who had been defense minister, after winning the party election. He called for early elections on October 27.
3. In the past week, capital inflows into US large-cap stocks dominated, while broad stock#ETFsoutflows were nearly $4 billion, but overall bond capital flows were positive (Figure 1)
4. The manufacturing industry in Qing Dynasty further contracted in September. The manufacturing PMI index of Qing Dynasty fell to 49.3 points, lower than the expected 50.5 (usually below 50 means contraction), while new orders fell to 47.5, the lowest level since 2022, indicating that the manufacturing industry in Qing Dynasty will further weaken (Figure 2)
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Cryptocurrency evening summary
1. Breaking: Hezbollah confirms leader Hassan Nasrallah is dead (killed in IDF airstrike on Beirut yesterday)
2. Let's talk about the US dollar and Bitcoin. With the rapid depreciation of the US dollar,#DXYusually falls, which will attract new capital and push up the price of Bitcoin. With the recent weakening of the US dollar, the positive correlation can be seen when the US interest rate is added. If the Fed continues to cut interest rates as planned, it may cause DXY to fall further, which will be beneficial for funds to enter risky markets such as Bitcoin.
3. According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin#BTCaccumulation has surged significantly in the past 30 days, and smart investors are rushing to buy Bitcoin
2. Let's talk about the US dollar and Bitcoin. With the rapid depreciation of the US dollar,#DXYusually falls, which will attract new capital and push up the price of Bitcoin. With the recent weakening of the US dollar, the positive correlation can be seen when the US interest rate is added. If the Fed continues to cut interest rates as planned, it may cause DXY to fall further, which will be beneficial for funds to enter risky markets such as Bitcoin.
3. According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin#BTCaccumulation has surged significantly in the past 30 days, and smart investors are rushing to buy Bitcoin
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1. Breaking news: Hezbollah confirms leader Hassan Nasrallah is dead (killed in IDF airstrike on Beirut yesterday)
2. Talking about the US dollar and Bitcoin, with the rapid depreciation of the US dollar, usually #DXY falls, it will attract new capital and push up the price of Bitcoin. With the recent weakening of the US dollar, the positive correlation will be seen when the US interest rate is superimposed. If the Fed continues to cut interest rates as planned, it may cause DXY to fall further, which will be beneficial for funds to enter risk markets such as Bitcoin
3. According to Glassnode data, the accumulation of Bitcoin #BTC☀ has increased significantly in the past 30 days, and smart investors are rushing to buy Bitcoin
4. Bitcoin spot #ETF✅ has seen a steady net inflow, which indicates that investors are more confident, especially institutional investors. Of course, this optimism is attributed to the promotion of market-friendly policies such as US interest rate cuts and China's economic stimulus (Figure 1)
5. In August,#corePCE increased by 0.13% month-on-month. If it is to reach #美联储 9 SEP forecast (2.6% year-on-year) then core PCE must grow by an average of 0.15% month-on-month by the end of the year, which means less than 0.15% is bullish (Powell will continue quantitative easing or speed up the pace to give the green light)
6. From the chart, we can see that in the past month and a half, the realized profits of STH-short-term holders have declined, because the current price is lower than their purchase price (Figure 2)
7. From the chart, it can be seen that the selling pressure of Bitcoin $BTC is the lowest this year. Even though Bitcoin is close to its historical high, few people sell it, so this is bullish sentiment (Figure 3)
8. Finally, let's talk about A-shares #A股 In the past 20 years, there have been about 4,800 trading days of decline, and long-term investment returns are only determined by the 30 trading days with the highest increase (it's the holiday), which means that 99% of the days of Qing stockholders are spent in pain, so are you optimistic about A-shares?
2. Talking about the US dollar and Bitcoin, with the rapid depreciation of the US dollar, usually #DXY falls, it will attract new capital and push up the price of Bitcoin. With the recent weakening of the US dollar, the positive correlation will be seen when the US interest rate is superimposed. If the Fed continues to cut interest rates as planned, it may cause DXY to fall further, which will be beneficial for funds to enter risk markets such as Bitcoin
3. According to Glassnode data, the accumulation of Bitcoin #BTC☀ has increased significantly in the past 30 days, and smart investors are rushing to buy Bitcoin
4. Bitcoin spot #ETF✅ has seen a steady net inflow, which indicates that investors are more confident, especially institutional investors. Of course, this optimism is attributed to the promotion of market-friendly policies such as US interest rate cuts and China's economic stimulus (Figure 1)
5. In August,#corePCE increased by 0.13% month-on-month. If it is to reach #美联储 9 SEP forecast (2.6% year-on-year) then core PCE must grow by an average of 0.15% month-on-month by the end of the year, which means less than 0.15% is bullish (Powell will continue quantitative easing or speed up the pace to give the green light)
6. From the chart, we can see that in the past month and a half, the realized profits of STH-short-term holders have declined, because the current price is lower than their purchase price (Figure 2)
7. From the chart, it can be seen that the selling pressure of Bitcoin $BTC is the lowest this year. Even though Bitcoin is close to its historical high, few people sell it, so this is bullish sentiment (Figure 3)
8. Finally, let's talk about A-shares #A股 In the past 20 years, there have been about 4,800 trading days of decline, and long-term investment returns are only determined by the 30 trading days with the highest increase (it's the holiday), which means that 99% of the days of Qing stockholders are spent in pain, so are you optimistic about A-shares?
LIVE比特视界
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Cryptocurrency evening summary
1. Latest news: If#Harrisand Tim Waltz win, the First Amendment will be in danger. Harris has publicly discussed the possibility of #Facebook and #twitter and Musk may lose his privileges. If amended, it will at least affect the freedom of speech of the American people.
2. Americans currently believe that Republicans will do a better job of ensuring national prosperity than Democrats, leading by 6 percentage points, or 50%, to Democrats (44%).
3. As mentioned yesterday, analysts raised their earnings expectations for #标普500 and temporarily reduced concerns about economic recession. From a technical perspective, the market is still bullish (Figure 1)
2. Americans currently believe that Republicans will do a better job of ensuring national prosperity than Democrats, leading by 6 percentage points, or 50%, to Democrats (44%).
3. As mentioned yesterday, analysts raised their earnings expectations for #标普500 and temporarily reduced concerns about economic recession. From a technical perspective, the market is still bullish (Figure 1)
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Cryptocurrency evening summary
1. Latest news: If#Harrisand Tim Waltz win, the First Amendment will be in danger. Harris has publicly discussed the possibility of #Facebook and #twitter and Musk may lose his privileges. If amended, it will at least affect the freedom of speech of the American people.
2. Americans currently believe that Republicans will do a better job of ensuring national prosperity than Democrats, leading by 6 percentage points, or 50%, to Democrats (44%).
3. As mentioned yesterday, analysts raised their earnings expectations for #标普500 and temporarily reduced concerns about economic recession. From a technical perspective, the market is still bullish (Figure 1)
2. Americans currently believe that Republicans will do a better job of ensuring national prosperity than Democrats, leading by 6 percentage points, or 50%, to Democrats (44%).
3. As mentioned yesterday, analysts raised their earnings expectations for #标普500 and temporarily reduced concerns about economic recession. From a technical perspective, the market is still bullish (Figure 1)
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Cryptocurrency evening summary
1. The United States proposed a ceasefire between#Hezbollahand #Israel, but the details are still unclear. Due to concerns about the expansion of the conflict, Hezbollah and Israel are drafting a ceasefire proposal with the support of the United States and its allies. Countries supporting the plan include the United States, the European Union and#SaudiArabia. Previously, Israel attacked the leader of Hezbollah's drones in Beirut. Israel launched a precision airstrike against Hezbollah's drone commander in Beirut. Fierce fighting with Iranian-backed organizations continues. Hezbollah fired 45 rockets into northern Israel, which brought a brief calm to northern Israel.
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Cryptocurrency evening summary
1. Japan has experienced 30 years of stagnation and now needs to seriously face the population crisis and inflation. At the same time, Japan is also the largest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds. Therefore, Japan's economic actions will affect the US and even the global economy.
2. U.S. consumers are still worried #经济衰退 The difference between their assessment of the current economic situation and their expectations has narrowed to the lowest level since the COVID-19 outbreak
In addition, Americans lack optimism about the labor market. The proportion of consumers who believe that there are ample job opportunities and that jobs are hard to find is 12.6%, which may mean that the unemployment rate will reach around 6%. If the unemployment rate rises, it will directly affect some policy operations of the Federal Reserve (Figure 1).
2. U.S. consumers are still worried #经济衰退 The difference between their assessment of the current economic situation and their expectations has narrowed to the lowest level since the COVID-19 outbreak
In addition, Americans lack optimism about the labor market. The proportion of consumers who believe that there are ample job opportunities and that jobs are hard to find is 12.6%, which may mean that the unemployment rate will reach around 6%. If the unemployment rate rises, it will directly affect some policy operations of the Federal Reserve (Figure 1).
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Cryptocurrency evening summary
1. The yield curves of major economies around the world have turned positive for the first time since 2022. The difference between 2-year and 10-year bonds in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Canada has begun to turn positive. The global large-scale #降息 cycle is doomed to begin. Is this a signal of a global economic recession?
2. The S&P 500 index is currently at 5,700 points, which is more than 300 points higher than the highest price target set by Wall Street strategists at the end of 2024, and 18% higher than the average target of 4,861. Based on the individual data, does it mean that the valuation is too high?
3. You may be concerned about the policies of the Qing Dynasty. Recently, the Qing Dynasty withdrew its stimulus measures, which caused the stock market to rise by 4%, which may be beneficial to #commodities. Please also check the following content (Figure 1):
2. The S&P 500 index is currently at 5,700 points, which is more than 300 points higher than the highest price target set by Wall Street strategists at the end of 2024, and 18% higher than the average target of 4,861. Based on the individual data, does it mean that the valuation is too high?
3. You may be concerned about the policies of the Qing Dynasty. Recently, the Qing Dynasty withdrew its stimulus measures, which caused the stock market to rise by 4%, which may be beneficial to #commodities. Please also check the following content (Figure 1):
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Cryptocurrency evening summary
1. Japan's labor shortage further proves that the aging population will lead to inflation, which indirectly affects the value of the yen. In addition, China's youth unemployment rate is also increasing. In August, China's youth unemployment rate reached 18.8%.
2. According to the historical data, whenever #美联储减息 , corporate profits will decline, but this time the profits did not decline. Friends, do you think that profits will decline as the economy weakens? (Figure 1)
3. As of September, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has been falling. If this continues, it will fall for 5 consecutive months, which has not happened since 2010 (Figure 2)
2. According to the historical data, whenever #美联储减息 , corporate profits will decline, but this time the profits did not decline. Friends, do you think that profits will decline as the economy weakens? (Figure 1)
3. As of September, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has been falling. If this continues, it will fall for 5 consecutive months, which has not happened since 2010 (Figure 2)
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Cryptocurrency evening summary
1. There is not much to say about the macroeconomics today. Maybe everyone is worried that Japan #加息 will bring down the US stock market and cryptocurrencies. According to the chart data, the Bank of Japan has no urgency to raise interest rates, so the possibility of tightening the yen and risky assets is temporarily small (raising interest rates). The USD/JPY exchange rate is mainly driven by the future US yield (Figure 1)
2. Continuing with the first point, according to people familiar with the matter, the central bank is likely to keep borrowing costs unchanged at 0.25% when it ends its two-day meeting on September 20. Given the recent turmoil, including the#Nikkei225index's biggest drop in history on August 5 (just a few days after the central bank raised interest rates), the central bank needs to pay close attention to financial markets. In addition, most economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to wait until December or January before raising interest rates again.
2. Continuing with the first point, according to people familiar with the matter, the central bank is likely to keep borrowing costs unchanged at 0.25% when it ends its two-day meeting on September 20. Given the recent turmoil, including the#Nikkei225index's biggest drop in history on August 5 (just a few days after the central bank raised interest rates), the central bank needs to pay close attention to financial markets. In addition, most economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to wait until December or January before raising interest rates again.
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