1. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen again to the 50 and 200-period moving averages, and the U.S. dollar index #DXY has also risen, currently breaking through 106.5 points.

2. As of now, the number of bankruptcies among large U.S. companies has reached 634, with 69 applications received in November, the second-highest application volume since the 2020 COVID crisis. The number of bankruptcies continues to rise, as if a recession has already arrived, yet the U.S. economy is still growing at around 3% (see chart 1).

3. Due to heightened expectations among China's middle class for a depreciation of the yuan, there has been a massive capital outflow. #China faces its biggest risk from high tariffs imposed by the U.S., and the only way to address this is to preemptively depreciate the yuan to meet depreciation expectations (see chart 2).

4. Following point 3, due to market concerns over tariffs and de-globalization, there has been significant capital outflow from emerging markets ahead of the U.S. elections. This outflow has now stopped, aligning with the broader pattern of markets that have shifted their focus away from tariffs.

5. Optimism among small businesses in the U.S. is rising, similar to the surge in partisanship elsewhere. More importantly, actual activity indicators have shown some improvement in recent months, particularly employment data, indicating that fears of a severe economic downturn are unfounded.

6. It’s a bit long, please be patient~ However, global economic challenges persist, such as Italy's economic stagnation, rising inflation in Germany, and China's trade surplus signaling potential market impacts ahead of the ECB and Fed's interest rate decisions.

Recently released economic data show significant challenges facing major global economies, as Italy's industrial production remained unchanged in October 2024, marking the fourth consecutive month without growth and failing to meet modest growth expectations.

Germany's year-on-year inflation rate increased from 2% to 2.2% in November, indicating that despite lower energy costs, price pressures remain.

On the Chinese side, #Trade data shows that the trade surplus in November surged to $97.44 billion, with export growth only half of expectations and imports significantly declining nearly 4% year-on-year. The reason is weak domestic demand, indicating a continued slowdown in the economy, which could have significant implications for broader regional markets.

Market sentiment is also influenced by central bank policies, as traders expect the European Central Bank #ECB and the Federal Reserve to make decisions regarding interest rates amidst these complex economic indicators.

The market widely expects the European Central Bank to again lower the deposit facility rate on Thursday, following the ECB's recent dovish comments about the impact of Trump's re-election on slowing activity levels in the Eurozone.

7. With China clearly stating its easing monetary policy, the Shanghai Composite Index has broken through 3400 points, potentially attracting funds from other risk assets, such as Bitcoin.

8. Shanghai, China has released an action plan to support mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, aiming to achieve $300B in M&A transactions by 2027 and establish 10 global enterprises in key industries such as semiconductors and biopharmaceuticals through M&A.

9. Let's talk about something that everyone is concerned about. #特朗普 Keep a close eye on the price of $BTC, and hope that it reaches $150,000 during his presidency (a senior transition source revealed that this is another stock market for Trump).

10. It's important to combine multiple indicators. Many investors will post a chart to fit their arrogant biases and desire for likes. Some will say that Bitcoin #BTC☀️ peaked at 74k in March, which is foolish behavior (see chart 3).

11. An 8-step manual on how Saylor @saylor is ruling the world.

Your enemy has gold, sell all the gold, buy Bitcoin, defeat your enemy, legalize dollar stablecoins, make the dollar the world currency, and the U.S. will hold all the Bitcoin, we win.

12. Speaking of altcoins, short-term and medium-term altcoin season shows signs of weakening. Altcoins have consistently underperformed compared to Bitcoin, whose dominance is still rising. This trend indicates that funds are migrating from altcoins to stablecoins or Bitcoin, making the altcoin market more vulnerable.

December and market uncertainty. Historically, December is known for market hesitation; for instance, in December 2020, $XRP #xrp retraced all its gains from November and did not recover until February 2021. These trends are usually driven by market makers. However, what is your short-term view on altcoins? (see chart 4).

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