There is significant deflation in China this year, economic concerns will continue to intensify, and yields have hit a record low (Figure 1)

2. The Federal Reserve is now in a dilemma. Cutting interest rates is equivalent to opening the floodgates, which will lead to the formation of asset bubbles. If interest rates remain unchanged, it will lead to recession.

China’s real estate stock prices are close to the lowest level in 20 years, and related stocks have fallen by more than 90% in 4 years. Therefore, the artificially driven economy often does not last long. It is a pity that people who take over

4. For risk assets, the main problem currently is the market’s concerns about the direction of the U.S. economy, which means that $BTC will face the embarrassing situation of falling into a liquidity crisis.

5. Bitcoin spot ETFs suffered heavy losses last week, with total outflows reaching US$700 million. None of the 12#ETFssaw capital inflows, of which $GBTC had an outflow of US$160 million and $FBTC had an outflow of US$400 million (Figure 2)

6. Ethereum $ETH has a bullish divergence and has formed higher lows. The downtrend of the past few months may be broken, which may have a significant boost to the entire market.

7. According to the heat liquidation chart, we need to pay attention to the position of 54200 below Bitcoin $BTC (Figure 3)

8. The 2-year Treasury bond yield in the United States is falling. The market expects that with the economic slowdown, interest rate cuts and further loosening of policies, the US dollar index has fallen back. In terms of macroeconomics and market liquidity, a rapid economic flash crash has been proven. Bad for Bitcoin

However, it turns out that the gradual slowdown in gold demand is a good buy signal for Bitcoin in the next quarter.

So now into the fourth quarter, what we need to pay attention to is the degree of slowdown in the U.S. economy and the global economy, as well as the central bank's response to economic data (ease or panic, including the degree of control). These factors are very important to the global market.

9. US inflation and core inflation and producer price index are very important data this week, including the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index which will also provide us with signs of the direction of the economy as it is the last inflation data before the #FOMC

If the economy declines and unemployment rises, the Fed may slowly implement quantitative easing, but inflation will come back. If#Fedstarts quantitative easing, Bitcoin and other risk assets will rise

10. 72% of Binance retailers are long cryptocurrencies (Figure 4)