1. Dudley, former president of the New York Fed, said that due to the slowdown in labor market conditions and the continued existence of inflation risks, speculation of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has heated up again, and the US dollar will face selling pressure
2. So far, core CPI inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for 3.5 consecutive years and has shown no signs of slowing down, although the overall CPI has fallen to a three-year low.
From the COVID-19 crisis to now, six of the ten top central banks have started to cut interest rates this year, and the Federal Reserve will announce its first rate cut next week (September 18, 2024), but premature rate cuts may trigger inflation and worsen affordability, while spending cuts may lead to further increases in unemployment, as the current #失业率 is close to a three-year high (Figure 1)
3. Market crashes above 30% all occur when unemployment rate rises. Currently, the unemployment rate in the United States is 4.2%. If the unemployment rate continues to rise, it indicates that the United States is in recession. It is possible that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points to save the market.
4. Many people regard Bitcoin as a catalyst that changes the rules of the game for cryptocurrencies, but this is not the case. Pessimistically, this cycle may experience a correction and consolidation phase. From April to now, capital inflows have been difficult to drive prices.
5. If Bitcoin rises 70% from its current price, it could reach 92K
6. UK court recognizes#Tether$USDT as property, a major breakthrough for crypto and a victory for the space
7. From the Bitcoin $BTC liquidation heat map, in the long-term full leverage mode, please pay attention to the position below 57K and the position above 58.7K of Bitcoin (Figure 2)
8. As gold hits a record high,#Bitcoinhas decoupled from gold. This situation shows that the market is risk averse and tends to prefer traditional safe-haven assets such as gold.
