1. Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics has created different versions of #Sam's Rule, focusing on the 25-54 age group, indicating a recent sharp divergence from the overall unemployment rate version, which suggests a low risk of recession
2. If inflation continues to fall, the federal funds rate is expected to fall from the current 5.25% to 5.5% range to 3% to 3.5% next year, and the Fed is expected to gradually cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at each recent meeting
But if the labor market deteriorates, a further 50 basis points cut is possible. This rate cut will put downward pressure on short-term interest rates, but at the same time help maintain stability
3. The market value of stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong has evaporated by $6.5 trillion, down from the peak three years ago (Figure 1)
4. According to reports: Huang Renxun sold #NVDA stocks worth more than $53 million last week
5. In the past two years, China's stimulus to the market has had no effect, foreign capital has fled, and domestic investors have mostly turned to real estate, becoming a solid buyer (Figure 2)
6. The market is confident that $#美联储 will cut interest rates at the #FOMC meeting in September. Federal Funds Futures show that there is a 70% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 30% chance of a 50 basis point cut
7. After the arrest of Telegram founder Durov, $TON network activity exploded, with daily transaction volume soaring to more than 10 million, an increase of 160%, and active addresses also surged (Figure 3)
8. Many clowns with a large number of fans on Twitter are spreading false information, saying that the bear market has arrived. Now it’s just that $BTC has not continued to rise, and it’s just a short break. It’s very common for risky assets to adjust and go sideways in a bull market
9. Market forecasts show that a Republican sweep or a Democratic split government is the most likely thing.#Harrishas a 49% chance of winning, but #特朗普 is gaining momentum in September
10. Bitcoin short-term holders #STH Faced with pressure, the market weakness has not forced enough short-term investors to surrender and passively become#LTHlong-term holders. Currently, about 95% of short-term investors' assets are in a loss state. They are facing psychological and financial pressure, which directly increases the possibility of panic selling (Figure 4)
11. In the past 7 days, the total supply of#Ethereumhas increased by about 15,000 Ethereum, with a total increase of 1.80,000 and destroyed 2,000 $ETH