a. According to research, the#DemocraticPartyis losing support among Mexican voters, whose confidence in #特朗普 has increased in the past three years since Trump stepped down, while #Biden's approval rating has dropped by 7%, with 60% of#Mexicanvoterslacking confidence in his leadership (Figure 1)

b. By looking at the data, ISM services performed better than manufacturing, although it barely rose, while manufacturing fell further.

c. The U.S. labor market remains fairly stable, with few signs of a serious deterioration consistent with the extreme rate cuts priced in by short-term interest rate markets, initial jobless claims remain stable and continuing claims also slow

In addition, the stable labor market is also consistent with the layoff rate. The weakest part of the market is still hiring, which increased slightly this month, but is still in line with the mid-term cycle before the COVID-19 pandemic.

d. Bitcoin's#UTXOprofit fell to its lowest level this year. Remember the last time UTXO profit fell to 68.5%, BTC's price rose sharply by 273% (Figure 2)

e. With less than two months to go until the US election, the Fear and Greed Index has fallen to an extreme fear level of 22%.

f. In the Bitcoin chart, if the wick at the arrow is filled, it is normal, it should be a good#DYORfor bulls, but if the lower level is lost, guess $BTC will still bleed (Figure 3)

g. Currently, many cryptocurrencies are experiencing seller fatigue, the selling speed is getting slower and slower, and the trading volume is much smaller, but there don’t seem to be many people willing to take over.

i. Currently, the correlation between#Bitcoinand the S&P 500 is 29%, indicating a weak positive correlation between Bitcoin price changes and the index dynamics. When the correlation exceeds 80%, it can be expected that BTC will follow the direction of #标普500 (Figure 4)

J. Finally, some opinions:

Market sentiment may be low right now, but history shows such lows often herald big gains in the#cryptocurrencyand #WEB3 sectors

With #Bitcoin $BTC approaching all-time highs and global liquidity expected to increase, Q4 2024 could spark a major rally in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies for the following reasons:

1. Despite the current market panic, historical patterns show that large price increases often occur during periods of low sentiment, as evidenced by the Fear and Greed Index

2. Major institutions are actively increasing their holdings of cryptocurrencies, showing long-term confidence and likely driving future price increases

3. Global liquidity is about to expand due to expected central bank rate cuts, which historically correlates with higher Bitcoin prices and broader gains in the cryptocurrency market

4. The reset of the Fear and Greed Index and the increase in institutional investment and global liquidity suggest that the fourth quarter of 2024 could mark the beginning of a major bull run in the cryptocurrency market

If there is no breakout in Q4 2024, we may view this as an extended cycle

This could indicate that the consolidation phase will continue until Q1 2025, potentially leading to a longer#bullrunand higher gains, we'll know soon