Ever since the Fed started cutting interest rates, some Vs have been trying to attract attention by writing articles like "the financial war is over, we have won"...
First, please ask these illiterate self-media to read the entire book "Unrestricted Warfare" before you come up with your conclusions. Otherwise, it will be a joke.
2. The financial war will not be won unless these shorts are defeated!
The feeling I have today is very similar to the process in 1998 when Soros tried to short Hong Kong and was repelled by our battle to defend Hong Kong.
At that time, before the option settlement date on August 28, 1998, Soros and a group of international speculators engaged in a series of desperate games with the Hong Kong government, which had the backing of the motherland's massive foreign exchange reserves.

What is the good news?
Central Bank:
1. Reduce the deposit reserve ratio and policy interest rate, and drive the market benchmark interest rate down. The above means that the deposit reserve ratio will be lowered by 0.5% recently, providing 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity to the financial market!
2. Lower mortgage interest rates and unify the minimum down payment ratio for mortgages.
3. Create new policy tools to support the development of the stock market. Let me explain: lower interest rates mean more money is deposited in banks, and this stagnant money needs to be put into motion.
There is a lot of money from ordinary people here, and it is not easy to make this part of money active. There have been too many disturbances in recent years, and Chinese people are still used to saving money. How to make this part of money flow into the market? Look at the three policies above! There are mainly two markets that can carry a large amount of funds to flow:

There are so many favorable policies released today that it is hard to count them all. What is different from before is that this time there is real money support, and it is no longer just empty talk.
The central bank governor spoke before the market opened, covering four points:
1. Reduce the interest rate of existing mortgage loans by 50BP;
2. The 7-day reverse repo rate was lowered by 20BP; the reserve requirement ratio was lowered by 50BP;
3. Reduce the minimum down payment ratio for second home loans from 25% to 15%;
4. Create new monetary policy tools to support the development of the stock market, create special bonds for stock repurchase and increase, guide banks to provide loans to listed companies and major shareholders, and support the repurchase and increase of stock holdings.

Apple had an unusual sudden dive at the end of last Friday's trading, with a small drop of only 2%, but at the last moment of the trading, $50 billion was traded. This kind of huge selling pressure is rare. Many people speculated that this was Warren Buffett's move to sell Apple again, because in the first half of this year, Warren Buffett had already reduced his holdings of Apple shares by a large proportion.
Generally speaking, Buffett will not reveal the reason for making a deal before the deal is completed. Someone asked this question at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting this year, but Buffett did not answer directly, emphasizing that the main motivation was just risk management. However, judging from the recent situation of iPhone 16, it is really below expectations.

Recently I talked with some friends from big companies about income issues.
It is not difficult for ordinary people in big cities to earn 200,000 yuan a year through hard work, such as passing the civil service exam, the teacher exam, and entering a large company. It does not require much talent, but the ceiling is about 400,000-500,000 yuan, which most people cannot surpass. But for employees of large companies, 400,000-500,000 yuan is a starting point. If you work hard, you can achieve it around the age of 30, and then there is room for advancement. Many people can reach the 1 million level. If you are excellent or have good opportunities, you can rise to the 2 million level. If you go above that, you are no longer a worker, and you have to be called "General" in the world.

The previous article said that the LPR did not change at all, which means that there was no interest rate cut. The explanation given is probably that there will be interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio cuts, and targeted interest rate cuts for existing mortgages, but you have to wait; because banks are suffering, the average interest rate spread is only about 1.5%. If the interest rate is cut immediately, the interest rate spread will be further reduced, and it will also trigger deposit relocation, etc. Balabalabala...
Let me explain this problem technically first.
The so-called interest rate spread is the difference between the interest rates of loans and deposits. All financial institutions basically make money from this. In essence, it is the bank's gross profit, and then the net profit after deducting various operating costs, taxes, and bad debts. The interest rate spread varies in different parts of the world. The average interest rate spread in most countries is above 2%. my country's current interest rate spread is around 1.5%, which is indeed lower than the average level.

The Federal Reserve finally cut interest rates this morning, announcing a 50 basis point cut to a level between 4.75% and 5.00%. This is the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve since March 2020, and the long-awaited rate cut cycle has finally begun. After the meeting, the Federal Reserve disclosed the latest dot plot, with the median interest rate expected to be 4.38% at the end of 2024, which means that there are two more rate cuts expected this year; it will be reduced by 100 basis points in 2025, and is expected to drop to 3.38% by the end of the year, and to less than 3% by the end of 2026. The market is actually quite full of expectations for rate cuts in the next two years.
The 50 basis point rate cut was a bit beyond expectations, so when the data was first seen, the market thought that the Fed had seen data that no one knew about. Powell explained in his subsequent speech that if they knew that the July employment data was weak at the end of July, they would have chosen to cut interest rates at that time, which was actually managing market expectations: Although I cut by 50bp, I did not dove.

It was said before that the interest rate would be cut by 25BP. Well, the "interest rate cut" exceeded expectations. Come on, stand in the corner and curse.
In the early morning, the Federal Reserve "cut interest rates" beyond expectations. My evaluation can only be described in four words: "amazing". I can only say that they have played the expectation management very well. Explain from the perspective of economics. Since you do not admit the recession and believe that the economy is full of momentum, then you should cut it a little bit, slowly release the pressure, and let the growth and pressure offset each other, in order to achieve the goal of moderately reducing inflation. This is what they said in the process of raising interest rates in the past. But the result is that the rate was cut by 50 BP at the beginning. Since a more radical stimulus action was chosen, it is to prevent the signs of economic recession in advance. But if we look at the dot plot, except for a certain room for interest rate cuts in 25 years, the Fed believes that the interest rate should stay at around 3.4% in the next three years. It needs stimulation, but also needs to control costs. Listen, doesn't it mean that you want both? Free America, are you starting to act like a hooligan? ....

At 2 a.m. tonight, the Federal Reserve will make its September interest rate decision. This meeting is known as the "most unpredictable" in history and may be the "biggest surprise in 15 years." Just last week, the market had collectively determined that the interest rate cut would be 25 basis points, but this week, well-known journalists and former Fed officials, known as "Federal Reserve mouthpieces," said that the interest rate cut should be more radical, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut prevailed.
CME's "Fed Watch Tool" currently predicts that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut tonight is 64%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut has shrunk to 36%. In fact, whether the US will cut interest rates is no longer a problem. What is more important is whether the People's Bank of China will follow suit.

Expectations of a Fed rate cut a few hours later:
If the Fed really cuts interest rates, inflation in the US will definitely surge, and with it, the US will enter the quagmire of "stagflation", and finally enter the economic downturn cycle that the US has been unfamiliar with for many years...
If the other side wants to die quickly? Then they should lower interest rates as much as possible! We will all be doomed together.
If the other side still wants to maintain peace and prosperity, even if it is an illusion? Then just delay it as much as possible, and let others make wild assumptions about what they want!
I don’t know when it started, but everyone has developed a wrong expectation, and is looking forward to the Fed cutting interest rates as soon as possible.

The next biggest event in the world will be the Federal Reserve’s 918 interest rate meeting, or to be exact, at 2 a.m. Beijing time on September 19, when the latest U.S. dollar interest rate will be announced, attracting worldwide attention.
I just checked the betting website and found some changes. The probability of a 50bp rate cut is currently 49%, while the probability of a 25bp rate cut is only 51%. These are the probabilities that gamblers have bet on with real money, and the pool currently contains $45 million.
Among the big institutions, Morgan Stanley insists on a 50bp cut, while Goldman Sachs insists on a 25bp cut. There are still some differences between the institutions. If you look at the odds above, the gap is not very large, and it is a meeting with a lot of suspense. Because of the suspense, the market cannot price in expectations in a stable manner in advance, which means that whether it is 25bp or 50bp, it is likely to have an impact on the global financial market in the short term. As for whether it is a good impact or a bad impact, we will only know it in the early hours of Thursday.

The Market Supervision and Administration Bureau of Hefei High-tech Zone issued a notice: Recently, the "Hong Kong Meicheng Mooncakes" sold by Three Sheep Network Technology Co., Ltd. through live broadcasting has attracted attention. A case has been filed for investigation into the suspected "misleading consumers" and other behaviors of Three Sheep Network Technology Co., Ltd. in the live broadcast, and it will be handled in accordance with the law and regulations based on the investigation results. Our bureau has repeatedly interviewed and urged enterprises to standardize their business practices in conjunction with relevant departments, and will resolutely investigate and deal with illegal and irregular behaviors in the live broadcasting of enterprises in accordance with the law. The "Hong Kong Meicheng Mooncakes" promoted by Brother Xiao Yang and the anchors under Three Sheep involved false propaganda, which made him fall. Brother Xiao Yang said in the live broadcast room that this mooncake sold more than 1 million orders. Hong Kong Meicheng's high-end mooncakes contain black truffles, which are prepared by Michelin masters. Many netizens left messages saying that they had never heard of "Hong Kong Meicheng". Some netizens found out through mainstream online shopping platforms such as Hong Kong hktvmall that Meicheng mooncakes were not sold on mainstream websites in Hong Kong, and they were very similar to the well-known Hong Kong brand Maxim's mooncakes.

The housing price data for August was released, and overall it is still the same, with no improvement. Except for Jilin, the remaining 69 cities are all falling. Beijing and Shanghai have been flat for two months, and in August they also joined the falling army.
The sales price of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month, 0.4 percentage points wider than last month; the sales price of second-hand residential properties in second- and third-tier cities fell by 1.0% and 0.9% month-on-month, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points wider than last month, respectively. The decline has not only not slowed down, but accelerated. The most outrageous is Xiamen, which fell by 2.2% month-on-month and 14.6% year-on-year, and these are the official data. A 2.2% drop in housing prices in one month, how many months will it take for Xiamen locals to earn back this 2.2%? Another city that fell by 2% month-on-month is Huizhou, a second-tier city in Guangdong. Previously, it had been hyping the concept of Shenzhen spillover. Now Shenzhen is unable to take care of itself, and the cities around Shenzhen will only be worse. This is just like stock speculation. Once the leading stocks collapse, the second, third, and fourth dragons, which seem to have less gains and are cheaper, will only fall more.

Last night, the European Central Bank decided to cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%; cut the refinancing rate by 60 basis points to 3.65%; and cut the marginal lending rate by 60 basis points to 3.9%.
In June this year, the European Central Bank cut all three key interest rates by 25 basis points, the first rate cut since it stopped raising interest rates in October last year. In July, it remained unchanged. This is the second rate cut in Europe this year. This time, the loan rate cut slightly exceeded market expectations. Look at how others cut interest rates. The deposit rate only dropped by 25 basis points, while the loan rate dropped by 60 basis points. Learn from them~
The Federal Reserve will also start its first interest rate cut next week. The market currently expects a high probability of a 25 basis point cut, with further rate cuts in November and December. The European Central Bank expects one or two more rate cuts before the end of the year. Canada has already cut interest rates three times before.

Last night, crude oil plummeted by more than 4%, hitting a new low since 2022. Brent crude oil is already below $70, and the price of US oil is even lower than this. There has always been a logic that crude oil will plummet every few years.
Why the crash?
My simple and crude view is that crude oil is not scarce. OPEC calls for joint production cuts every day, but in fact it cannot escape the law of economic cycles. When the economy is on the rise, production cuts are somewhat helpful and prices can rise. However, when prices rise to a certain level, time drags on, and the economic cycle goes down, production cuts are useless, demand is weak, supply exceeds demand, and prices begin to fall sharply, or even plummet.