The latest US CPI fell beyond expectations, with the unadjusted CPI annual rate in August at 2.5%, the fifth consecutive month of decline, the lowest level since February 2021, and lower than the market expectation of 2.6%. ​​​Further proves that the economy is cooling down. It really is all data you need.

After the release of the US CPI: the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September rose to 85%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut was 15% (71% and 29% before the CPI was released).

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 43.8%, the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 7.3% (27%, 55%, and 18% before the CPI was released).

Powell's 2.0% is getting closer and closer. Even if he doesn't want to cut interest rates, the Federal Reserve's voting mechanism will push for a rate cut. #美国8月CPI低于预期