Expectations of a Fed rate cut a few hours later:

If the Fed really cuts interest rates, inflation in the US will definitely surge, and with it, the US will enter the quagmire of "stagflation", and finally enter the economic downturn cycle that the US has been unfamiliar with for many years...

If the other side wants to die quickly? Then they should lower interest rates as much as possible! We will all be doomed together.

If the other side still wants to maintain peace and prosperity, even if it is an illusion? Then just delay it as much as possible, and let others make wild assumptions about what they want!

I don’t know when it started, but everyone has developed a wrong expectation, and is looking forward to the Fed cutting interest rates as soon as possible.

To stabilize inflation in the US?

To reignite the recovery of global manufacturing?

In order for the economies of various countries to return to the steady growth before the epidemic, will the prices of all kinds of assets around the world return to normal and continue to rise?

...

These fantasies about the Fed's interest rate cuts are not limited to the poor investors of Myanmar A-shares, but also include a large number of investment institutions from Wall Street to domestic ones! ...

Today, I will review it again for you. I still believe that the Fed will cut interest rates by a maximum of 25 basis points:

① Powell, who refused to admit defeat to the Federal Reserve, was previously severely accused of "cutting interest rates too early", which led to inflation; so this time, he withstood the pressure and held on until now to really decide to cut interest rates.

So, is it possible to cut interest rates by 50% right from the start? Is this admitting recession while accepting inflation? This is equivalent to all previous efforts being in vain and just admitting defeat!

② There is no precedent in the history of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points for the first time.

They are several periods: the Internet bubble in 2001, the financial crisis in 2008, and the epidemic crisis in 2020.

All of these correspond to huge financial instability driven by black swan events. But now, it is obviously not as serious as this, nor as urgent as this moment!

③ Exchange rate hits a new low. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen hits a new low. If we rashly cut interest rates by 50% at this time, it will inevitably cause greater financial instability.

This is not the essential purpose of lowering interest rates - to reduce inflation and thus stabilize the financial markets and the national economy.