The Ethereum Cancun upgrade, which has been silent for a long time, is reported to be activated on the Holesky test network. This is the last test network fork before the main network. If the test is successful, the final mainnet launch time will be determined at tomorrow's conference call, which is tentatively expected to be between the end of February and the beginning of March.
It is precisely because of the recent performance of Ether and a series of tokens that they have begun to perform strongly. In terms of macro trends, short-term Ethereum has begun to lead the market. A series of negative judgments on Ethereum for a long time have wiped out the continuous new highs in the late market. This is based on the Ethereum ecology and possible late-stage potential. preliminary conclusions.
The current market value of Ethereum is US$285 billion, and the highest price in history is less than US$5,000. In other words, for this bull market that is already on its way, Ethereum only needs to more than double its previous high. Let’s not consider how much capital will flow back after the successful Cancun upgrade, nor will we calculate the market increase expected to be brought about after the possible Ethereum spot ETF is passed in May. Simply a new bull’s high point will be enough. Not only is it more than double the height.
From the data, the success of the Cancun test will continue to seize the market share of second- and third-tier public chains based on Ethereum's current position as the leading public chain ecology. This will completely intensify the involution of fees, and then the Ethereum ETF will be approved. The subsequent gray scale shipments are all short-term pains. But if we refer to the current situation of Bitcoin, what we should really consider at some point is how to prevent it from falling.
Today, the Bitcoin ETF data as of the 5th of this month was released. Currently, Grayscale is indeed in a state of weak shipments and cannot sell anymore. At present, the largest short position in the pie is still on the side of miners. On-chain data shows that miners have increased their shipments when the halving of the pie is approaching. At this stage, the number of pie held by miners on the chain has dropped to 2021 It is the lowest level since June this year and is still showing a downward trend.
Therefore, even though Grayscale's shipments are weak and BlackRock has been taking positions, the market still does not rise. The fundamental reason is here. Many friends may not understand why miners choose to ship on the eve of the halving of the pie? Everyone knows that the future giants are already on the way, and miners are no exception.
However, the current situation of the market is that most current Bitcoin mines need to update their mining equipment before the halving to cope with the subsequent upgrade in mining difficulty. Therefore, logically the selling pressure at the miner level will end at the end of the first quarter, and then the market as a whole will welcome the halving of the pie.
Since the adoption of Big Pie ETF, the total net capital inflow into the crypto market has reached 1.6 billion U.S. dollars. Last week alone, the net inflow of all crypto assets was 708 million U.S. dollars. Big Pie accounted for 703 million U.S. dollars, accounting for 99% of the total inflow. %. It is conceivable that after the Bitcoin miners stopped selling, the crazy attitude of the big pie to welcome this round of market explosion.
As the Spring Festival is approaching, I would like to give you a risk warning. Yesterday, a hot ERC404 protocol was released. In fact, there are quite a lot of new protocols released recently. Uncle San also did some interaction and research on several chains with his assistant tonight. My personal feeling is that in most of the agreements, the first batch of people to participate can make some money, and those who follow the trend are basically in vain. Especially at present, these projects have the shadow of Chinese people. If they can’t keep up with the pace, Just keep the tokens in your hand. We walked a little slower, but more steadily than them.
The news that the ID was on Bangzi Exchange doubled today. Previously, the ID was publicized and followed at 0.3 o'clock. It took me more than two months to get it myself. From a personal point of view, even if there is no such thing as the currency listed on Bangzi, I still admit that there is an expectation of doubling at the basic price of 0.3 points, but this good news has accelerated the explosion of the ID market.
My current personal opinion about ID is that it can be shipped appropriately. If it can get back below 0.4 points, those who have no positions can buy some. Like ENS, it is one of the sectors that can be held for a long time.
Let me briefly explain the reason for the holiday. The consistent logic of Sanshu in the secondary market is to buy coins that can tell a story. No matter how fake it is, as long as there is room for narrative within the stop loss line, it will explode in an instant. The last one was OKT, this one is ID. The ambush was correct, but you have to stay calm. I don’t think that frequent pursuit of hot spots can achieve good results. The lag in news often leads to the vast majority of people who chase hot spots being trapped at the top of the mountain.
BTC: From the perspective of technical narrative logic, the narrative logic is gradually adjusted. For now, just continue to wait for the complete tilt of buying and selling orders between institutions and miners. The basis for short-term violent rise is not large, but the probability of continuing to go short is lower in the future. The short-term daily support is 42,400 points and the pressure is 43,800 points. It is expected that there will be a breakthrough opportunity in the short term. After the breakthrough, pay attention to the standing form.
ETH: There should be no problem for Ether to break through 2,400 points in the past two days. Uncle San has always said that the growth of Ether in the first half of this year will outperform the market. The short- and medium-term macro narrative also illustrates this. The most important thing now is to maintain enough patience.
SOL: The Sol chain has been so popular recently, and the relevant basic configuration is indeed much better than the previous two years. Band participation can give you the opportunity to get below 90 points and pay proper attention.
OKT: The NFT sector has been quite active recently. As OK’s NFT token, it has returned to around 16 o’clock after a wave. The market washout is almost over now, so Xiaokura will pay attention. #DYM #sol #BTC #ETH #ID
