Bitcoin has fallen by more than 10% for two consecutive days, hitting the largest consecutive decline since the correction in June. The entire network has liquidated 570 million US dollars in 24 hours, including 445 million long positions. At the current price, only five Bitcoin mining machine models can continue to make profits, and most of them have shut down and surrendered. Nearly 80% of my friends in the circle with tens of millions of assets have been liquidated and returned to zero due to leverage. In today's big drop, all of my last 20% of my pending buy orders are in place. From now on, the past is gone with the wind, and we will only fight for the future.
After the market plummeted, the most discussed question was whether the short-term market had fallen to the right level. Before answering this question, I think it is necessary to discuss with you why the market has fallen so much?
Considering the halving cycle, each bull market will be preceded by a retracement of at least 30%. In terms of the decline, today is the closest to the black swans of 312 and 519. In addition, the halving effect of each cycle is a new high trend six months after the Bitcoin halving, and the time point seems to be close now. In terms of trend, the biggest interference factor in the first half of the year was the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, which led to the early new high of Bitcoin, which directly disrupted everyone's market judgment.
Combined with the current macro-reality, the accelerated decline that began at 7 o'clock this morning is basically consistent with the information that Uncle San learned about the sale of cakes in a certain inland province. In addition to this secret act of selling cakes, the German government's public sale during the day and Mentougou's public compensation during the day directly accelerated this round of decline. However, the one-time release of bad news has a greater positive impact after the short-term pain.
Therefore, this is a round of bubble clearing action that exceeded expectations and gave infinite hope to Bitcoin ETF. Everyone is experiencing the crypto market with ETF for the first time. Sanshu, like everyone else, remained vigilant when the market just started to fall. He chose to start bottom-fishing after the first decline and rebound. He continued to accumulate chips when it touched the previous support for the second time. He bought the last chips when it touched the trend support yesterday. The technical support induction became the fuse that temporarily buried himself.
As long as you haven't been thrown off the bus, you are lucky. Sanshu is in a full position like everyone else. If you lose money, you can just start over. If the market can pick up as expected after three months or six months, and the asset data returns to the previous high, then we must thank the exploitation of this plunge and the gift of mental training.
As for whether the market has fallen to the right level in the short term? I think it is still open to discussion in the short term! First of all, the technical structure, the trend support of 56,000 points was directly broken without any obstruction. After the German government sold the big cake for a few days, there are still 40,000 pieces in hand, and the lending stampede in the market is still continuing. In other words, after breaking the previous double bottom structure, the big cake must find a new support point to stop falling.
There are currently two ways to find a new support point. First, tomorrow morning, the daily line will close back above 57,000 points, which will form a daily line with a huge long lower shadow bottom pattern, forming the bottom of a new round of market. Second, after a short adjustment, the second wave of lows will be higher than the previous lows, and the daily double bottom trend will be formed. Refer to the adjustment status of 312 and 519. If it is more extreme and the bottom is not established in the short term, then another support of 52,000 points will be hit to form a new rising structure. As for the four-digit pie, there is no recognition of cost-effectiveness after the main force smashes the market. If it really goes down, it will be 43,000.
Macroeconomically, the unemployment rate in the United States in June was 4.1% in the evening, reaching a new high since November 2021. The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in June were 206,000, higher than expected but much lower than the previous value. The news is generally positive. There is another positive data that needs to be explained. The 165,000 new non-farm payrolls in April were revised to 108,000, and the 272,000 non-farm payrolls in May were revised to 218,000, which is consistent with the judgment of Uncle San when the data was released before. The water content is ridiculous!
The beauty of sunrise lies in the fact that it is born out of the deepest darkness. The currency circle is inherently turbid, with both rises and falls happening simultaneously. Now that the market has come down, according to past experience, whether it is based on this as the bottom, or continues to probe downwards to find a new bottom, the market needs a slow repair cycle. The bloodbath is inevitable, so just wait and see and wait for an opportunity to act again.
BTC: Bitcoin has fallen into the trap of a technical bear market. The ETF purchase data after the opening of the US stock market in the evening has not yet been released. The impact of macro sentiment should focus on overnight data. If the net outflow continues, the daily line will continue to fall in a small range. The hourly line showed that the short-term volume has obviously declined in the evening. In any case, it has entered a time window of extreme panic in the short term. It will take at least a week to get through it. You can buy the bottom, but be cautious. From the technical perspective, pay attention to whether 57,000 points can break through and stabilize. Effective stabilization can quickly warm up short-term sentiment. Pay attention to the trend support of 54,000 to 52,000 points. If it drops to this position again, even if it stops falling, it will extend the consolidation time in the later period. In the short term, watch the market and do the market.
ETH: The panic selling of Ethereum is obvious, and the trend is linked to Bitcoin.
The altcoins are completely out of school this time. The day before yesterday, I bought at 34 points on Ordi, hoping to catch up, but today it went directly to around 25 points. The panic selling of altcoins was the most intense this morning. Let's wait for Bitcoin's sentiment to ease in the next two days. After this battle, most altcoins are expected to establish a bottom structure before Bitcoin and Ethereum, after all, they have fallen enough in the early stage. The intraday USDT premium is also large, and the bottom-fishing army has entered the market.
The Fear and Greed Index was 29 during the day, the lowest level since January this year.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #美国6月非农数据高于预期 #德国政府转移比特币 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美国首次申领失业救济人数超出预期 $BTC
