At 8:30 p.m., data showed that the U.S. seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate at the end of June was 3%, and the core CPI annual rate was 3.3%, both lower than the previous value and expectations. The macroeconomic environment was strong and positive, and inflation no longer fluctuated and was declining in an orderly manner. After the data came out, the poll expectations for the Federal Reserve's annual interest rate cut directly increased to three times, and the crypto market responded with a round of highs.

The market fundamentals do need such favorable support, otherwise the extreme lack of liquidity and the continuous selling of related institutions can easily lead to a second disorderly stampede in the market. However, even if the data shows a double-favorable situation, Sanshu also believes that three annual interest rate cuts are not realistic. The cost-effectiveness is sufficient to go from one expectation to two actual implementations.

In any case, the probability of a 70% rate cut in September has greatly increased. Those who are still waiting for the index to fall below 50,000 in this round of market may be disappointed. In addition, the data on initial jobless claims for the week was slightly negative, which was consistent with the previous strong employment data, which was a small episode. Powell also said that the inflation rate below 2% is no longer the only criterion for whether to cut interest rates in the future, and the focus is on the labor market and employment. Logically, both the new high unemployment rate and the easing of inflation have met the basic requirements for the first rate cut.

Yesterday, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of 147 million US dollars, and the single-day inflow amount was the third largest since the ETF was approved. The inflow and outflow of funds of the Bitcoin spot ETF has gradually matured. It is expected that the short-term impact on the market will gradually decrease in the future, thus translating into a long-term impact similar to the positive macroeconomic data.

The short-term trend of Ethereum and related series is still quite obvious. It is almost like the Ethereum spot ETF will be listed within five working days, so the chips of related series should be very alert. Rumors suggest that Grayscale ETFE may be listed at the same time as other institutions. If this is true, we should be on guard against potential short-term selling pressure in advance.

There is nothing much to say about other aspects. The off-market sentiment has gradually eased recently, and the oversold indicators in the previous period have gradually recovered with the market fluctuations. Even if the data is positive in the short term, it will not directly reverse the market at one time. The imbalance of the long-short ratio and the necessity of rising fuel make the current market still need to fluctuate back and forth. Compared with everyone's expectation of directly pulling it up, standing on the premise that it can move towards a new upward trend in a healthy manner in the later stage, Sanshu is more inclined to give enough time to grind the bottom in this range.

BTC: Bitcoin briefly broke through 59,500 points in the evening, and then quickly pulled back. The current bearish trend is still trending back below 57,000 points. There are too many bulls, so let Bitcoin add some more fuel. At this rate, it is expected that the adjustment period will not take too long to bottom out. The bottom of the oscillation range is temporarily in the range of 56,500 to 59,500 points, and the trend reversal point focuses on the breakthrough and stabilization of the heavy chip area before 61,000 to 63,000 points.

ETH: Ethereum’s trend pressure level is moving back and forth around 3100 points, and the hype and pull on the news are still quite intense. In the evening, after the data showed positive news and it reached 3200 points, the price of the pie fell. If there is a deep wash, there is a probability that it will go back to below 3000 points. The most likely limit position is here, and the upper pressure level is 3200 points.

For copycats, pay attention to TIA, ORDI, SSV, and TON. I also said yesterday that I would pay attention to them after a new round of clean-up. I expect that there will be opportunities in the short term.

The Fear and Greed Index is 29 today.

Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! ​​​#美国6月CPI大幅降温 #美联储何时降息？ #BTC下跌分析 $BTC