I remember when the market just started in October last year, many partners who had been dormant for a year or two suddenly became active and were actively looking for ways to buy U in preparation for a good result in this round of market. Some of the cycle targets they set were ten times, and some were a hundred times, as if as long as they got on the first train, everything that followed would be a natural outcome.

The development of the market is often unexpected. When we are still in the period of emotional brewing, Bitcoin surges due to the news that the ETF is about to pass. The newly born inscription sector has created one wealth-making myth after another. The lucky ones of the meme concept emerge one after another, and the almost forgotten Solana ecosystem emerges as a dark horse.

Therefore, the old players in the market could no longer hold back their wallets under the extreme FOMO. The development of things often starts with hope and ends with despair, and cryptocurrency trading is no exception. This wave of decline from 72,000 points to 53,000 points buried the dreams of countless people who planned to achieve class leap in this round of bull market.

I was chatting with a few friends yesterday afternoon. When we talked about the current market situation, we all expressed frustration about most VC coins, and all of them were experiencing the withdrawal of their positions in the altcoins. However, the value logic of using Bitcoin as the first position for many years has prevented everyone from losing their principal. One of my friends has a 60% Bitcoin position, with an average cost of 27,000 yuan. Another friend has been fully invested in Ethereum for four years, with a cost of less than 1,500 U. For them, all-in has become a representative of value.

I have never seen anyone in the industry who remains short and has not started to trade in the current market conditions. This kind of wisdom probably only exists in legends. The wisdom of Soha lies in the ambush and fixed investment when no one is interested in the market, and the calmness to stay away from the hustle and bustle when the market starts to rise and fall sharply.

The recent capital inflow from the macro market is relatively obvious. Yesterday, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of 216 million US dollars, which was a faster growth rate than the previous two trading days. Due to the potential listing of Ethereum spot ETF, Sun Ge has recently started buying Ethereum again. On the negative side, the German government's selling behavior, which has been the focus of recent attention, has also eased in terms of sentiment. At present, the German government still has 23,000 big coins. If the current outflow rate is maintained, it will be difficult to form a new blow to the market.

I watched Powell's speech on monetary policy last night. To put it simply, the current economic situation in the United States is not bad. Although the progress in fighting inflation is good, it has not yet reached the requirement of a clear interest rate cut. Although the unemployment rate is at a new high, short-term employment is still strong. More data is needed to determine future economic policies. In any case, compared with the previous completely hawkish speech, last night was much milder. The probability of a rate cut in September is currently 71%. Tomorrow night is the day for the release of new CPI data. If it is positive, the market will bottom out this month, and the trend in the second half of the year will be very optimistic based on this.

In terms of market fundamentals, Bitcoin and Ethereum have been in a reciprocating rhythm in the past two days. Ethereum was strong yesterday and Bitcoin was strong today. However, Ethereum gradually strengthened in the evening. If nothing unexpected happens, the Ethereum ETF should be listed before the 15th. In the short-term market, there is no extra space except for the necessary purchase of high-quality chips to lower the average price. Wait until this hellish operation stage is over before making a step-by-step layout.

As for whether the short-term bottom has been reached, Uncle San believes that this is still debatable. Technically, the market must break through and stabilize above 61,200 points before there is a chance for a short-term reversal. Otherwise, no matter how it rebounds, a new round of bottoming out is a natural outcome. Optimistic, the bull market process based on the interest rate cut cycle has just begun; pessimistic, this round of bull market trend is indeed scarred.

Time passes slowly, and the years are fragrant. When there is no good market, you must always live up to the time that will never come back. Before the reversal, continue to enjoy life outside the market. There are beautiful scenery everywhere in life, and flowers bloom everywhere when your heart is wide!

BTC: Bitcoin is currently adjusting above the first technical support of 57,000 points. The trend is gradually changing from a strong breakthrough to a weak shock. It is estimated that the market will continue to fluctuate below the pressure level during the day. The main focus is on the data tomorrow night. If the CPI data is positive, it will be conducive to the breakthrough of this round of market, otherwise the probability of continuing to explore at the weekend is more than 80%. The gradual upward movement of the support level is a sign that the panic of this round of high-level decline has gradually eased. The large-scale selling pressure has basically ended. The adjustment of the remaining technical indicators should continue to be patient. The next two scenarios are: the first is to explore below 56,000 points again this week to confirm the bottoming trend for the third time, and then reverse; the second is that the data tomorrow night is positive, the market will strengthen and break through the 61,200 point trend reversal point, and then maintain a period of high-level shocks and then break upward. If the market continues to bottom out for the third time, then allow yourself to be greedy for this big drop. With the position of the macro cycle, we can hold it firmly and go far.

ETH: Ethereum's trend pressure level is around 3100 points, and the hype and pull on the news are still quite intense. In the evening, Sun Ge started buying again, and this time everyone's expectations will be realized.

For the copycat products, pay attention to TIA, ORDI, SSV, and TON. I have already made a round of purchases. Those who are still waiting and watching will make more purchases when the possible big stocks continue to fall in the near future. Just keep an eye on them for now.

The Fear and Greed Index is 28 during the day.

Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #美联储何时降息？ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #德国政府转移比特币 #BTC下跌分析 #美国6月非农数据高于预期 $BTC