At around 4 pm, the BA one-minute market of Bitcoin continued to show many long downward K-lines. Combined with the transaction data, it can be basically determined that some large investors could not bear the pressure and directly chose to sell at the market price. Judging from the entry and exit data of more than one BTC large investor in the past month, panic has spread from retail investors to large investors, and Bitcoin is bound to bottom out again near the previous low.
The accelerated decline of the daily market started from Powell’s speech at the European Central Bank Forum last night. He did not give a positive answer on whether the core rate would be cut in September, and emphasized the topic of repeated inflation and the target of 2% by the end of next year, which led to the concerns of the risk market and the market began to fall.
There are several negative factors in the macro market recently, which Grayscale's report also mentioned: the liquidation of Mentougou, the sale of confiscated assets by the US government, the sale of confiscated assets by the German government, and the sudden large-scale reduction of miners last month, etc. In my opinion, the biggest impact in the short and medium term is the sequelae of the liquidation of Mentougou. The handling of confiscated assets will not be done overnight. In terms of volume, the market basically chooses to accept them openly, and the sales of miners will end as long as the market recovers appropriately.
In three months, the total market value of the crypto market has dropped from $2.7 trillion to $2.3 trillion, and the daily trading volume has also dropped from $180 billion to the recent $50 billion. In any case, I do not recommend that you short the depressed market! In the current market environment, only a little bit of momentum is needed to push the market forward. The sudden approval of the Ethereum spot ETF last month is an example.
Looking back at history, every period of time when trading volume and on-chain activity are extremely low is the starting point for a new round of market outbreak, and there has never been an exception!
Yesterday, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of 13.7 million US dollars, of which Grayscale GBTC accounted for the absolute majority. If the recent data excludes the impact of Grayscale, the overall OTC new users are still in a state of net inflow, so the negative impact on the entire ETF market does not exist for the time being.
Looking back, the boat has passed through thousands of mountains; looking forward, the long road is also brilliant! Life is full of disappointments, and not all waiting can be fulfilled immediately. You should smile and don't panic. If it is difficult, it means that this road is right.
BTC: After a few days of adjustment near 63,500 points, Bitcoin turned around without volume support and broke through the 60,000 point position again. From the four-hour technical point of view and the daily line, Bitcoin has a certain rebound demand after the continuous decline. The high point of the daily cycle is at the pressure level of 62,000 points, and the support below is relatively weak at 60,000 points. The probability of another test if the capital sentiment does not ease is relatively high. However, from the logic of the cycle, the overall market's long and short trends tend to be in a state of long exhaustion, which is suitable for the main force to pull the market in stages. It is expected that the short-term bottom will be confirmed within 12 hours, and the data on Friday is temporarily positive. The monthly cycle will not have much room for breakthrough. If the monthly cycle on the time axis bottoms out during the day, the high point of the oscillation range is expected to appear around the 10th, followed by a long-term bottoming breakthrough.
ETH: Ethereum's trend is linked to Bitcoin, but the market sentiment is relatively high. Ethereum, which has a relatively high cost-effectiveness, is one of the top currencies. The listing of ETFs is one of the main reasons why Ethereum can maintain its strength in the future. It is expected that Ethereum will conservatively increase by at least double in the quarter after the listing of ETFs, which will be equivalent to the high point after Bitcoin is approved. Continue to buy low and pay attention to recent news and the listing time of Grayscale!
SOL: Vaneck became the first institution to apply for Solana spot ETF, triggering a rebound in the related ecosystem. Continue to pay attention to the chips below 140 points. After breaking through 150 points yesterday, Bitcoin went down in tandem. If there is a chance to return to below 140 points in the short term, continue to pay attention.
The fear index is 50 during the day.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #美国首次申领失业救济人数超出预期 #非农就业数据即将公布 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数年率增幅创2021年3月以来新低 $BTC
