白酒
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The Deadlock of Distributors
1. Recently, nearly half of the newly listed liquor companies reported negative revenue growth in Q3, with only Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu among the top brands maintaining double-digit growth; Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao only managed to sustain positive growth, while Yanghe plummeted by 44.82%.
2. The relationship between liquor companies and distributors has never been equal. When the market is tough, liquor factories can talk about feelings with distributors, but when the market is good, who treats distributors as brothers?
3. In 2012, Moutai also faced its darkest moment, openly warning distributors that anyone who dared to lower prices would be immediately eliminated without hesitation. This measure allowed it to surpass Wuliangye in 2013 and take the top spot.
4. The myth of high growth in the liquor industry in the past largely relied on distributors. Now that distributors are struggling to sell, we are in a phase of survival. When e-commerce platforms offer subsidies, distributors lose their advantages, leading to a decline in sales; e-commerce does not care about the survival of distributors.
5. In 2012, everyone could hold on because there were still good expectations. Now we lack good expectations. During periods of economic decline, the consumption of high-end liquor continues to decrease, which is an established trend. Companies can only continue to pressure distributors to stabilize profits, but distributors cannot clear their inventory and are not allowed to sell at low prices, plus they face low-price attacks from e-commerce platforms. How to resolve this?
6. The group of people who drink Moutai is not significantly affected, but those who drink Wuliangye and Diaoyutai are severely impacted; the middle class is always the first to be hit.
7. I revised this article seven times before publishing it. The picture shows the biting cold consumption in Beijing and Shanghai; the data does not lie. As long as consumption does not improve, the high-margin liquor industry will inevitably face a bubble.
8. Gradually, some people who used to drink Moutai have started drinking customized liquor; thinking about it now, it’s also a substitute option.
9. A heads-up about the declining bullish trend in the pancake circle; many are likely to take profits, especially with annual loans for mining sites. Be cautious that positions do not exceed 60% at this time.
10. Recently testing a quantitative model; once completed, I will share it with everyone. It is purely on-chain, publicly transparent, and traceable.
#白酒
1. Recently, nearly half of the newly listed liquor companies reported negative revenue growth in Q3, with only Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu among the top brands maintaining double-digit growth; Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao only managed to sustain positive growth, while Yanghe plummeted by 44.82%.
2. The relationship between liquor companies and distributors has never been equal. When the market is tough, liquor factories can talk about feelings with distributors, but when the market is good, who treats distributors as brothers?
3. In 2012, Moutai also faced its darkest moment, openly warning distributors that anyone who dared to lower prices would be immediately eliminated without hesitation. This measure allowed it to surpass Wuliangye in 2013 and take the top spot.
4. The myth of high growth in the liquor industry in the past largely relied on distributors. Now that distributors are struggling to sell, we are in a phase of survival. When e-commerce platforms offer subsidies, distributors lose their advantages, leading to a decline in sales; e-commerce does not care about the survival of distributors.
5. In 2012, everyone could hold on because there were still good expectations. Now we lack good expectations. During periods of economic decline, the consumption of high-end liquor continues to decrease, which is an established trend. Companies can only continue to pressure distributors to stabilize profits, but distributors cannot clear their inventory and are not allowed to sell at low prices, plus they face low-price attacks from e-commerce platforms. How to resolve this?
6. The group of people who drink Moutai is not significantly affected, but those who drink Wuliangye and Diaoyutai are severely impacted; the middle class is always the first to be hit.
7. I revised this article seven times before publishing it. The picture shows the biting cold consumption in Beijing and Shanghai; the data does not lie. As long as consumption does not improve, the high-margin liquor industry will inevitably face a bubble.
8. Gradually, some people who used to drink Moutai have started drinking customized liquor; thinking about it now, it’s also a substitute option.
9. A heads-up about the declining bullish trend in the pancake circle; many are likely to take profits, especially with annual loans for mining sites. Be cautious that positions do not exceed 60% at this time.
10. Recently testing a quantitative model; once completed, I will share it with everyone. It is purely on-chain, publicly transparent, and traceable.
#白酒
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Bank financial management can also lose 99%
When I first came online today, I saw many messages asking me how much I drank last night. My friend and I shared a bottle of Feitian, and I gave more than 1 or 2 liang to his father-in-law, and I basically split the rest, so it was about 4 liang of liquor. I was fine when I left his house, but when I got home, I felt so sleepy that I had to go to bed.
I didn't drink much when I was young, but I started to like drinking after I turned 35. When middle-aged men eat together, they won't drink unless they are in a hurry for a work meal. So now when I hear about young people not drinking and no one consuming liquor anymore, I just laugh it off. My brothers are still young, and they will be unlocked automatically in a few years.
I didn't drink much when I was young, but I started to like drinking after I turned 35. When middle-aged men eat together, they won't drink unless they are in a hurry for a work meal. So now when I hear about young people not drinking and no one consuming liquor anymore, I just laugh it off. My brothers are still young, and they will be unlocked automatically in a few years.
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Half of the warehouse
Let me tell you something I heard today.
Didn’t I tell you a few days ago that CSI 500a would issue 10 ETF funds, each with a scale of 2 billion, adding up to 20 billion, and the deadline is the 23rd of this month.
At that time, I said that the current market situation was too bad and it was difficult to raise 20 billion yuan in funds. These fund companies must have to find some unconventional means, such as asking brokerages and insurance companies to use money to cushion the situation, or looking for some big investors to compensate for the expenses privately.
Someone asked me about this. The initial condition was to pay an additional fee of 1.3%, which was later increased to 1.5%. Recently, I heard that someone is willing to pay 2%. That is, if I subscribe for 10 million, I will get 150,000 to 200,000 yuan, and I will bear the profit and loss after listing.
Didn’t I tell you a few days ago that CSI 500a would issue 10 ETF funds, each with a scale of 2 billion, adding up to 20 billion, and the deadline is the 23rd of this month.
At that time, I said that the current market situation was too bad and it was difficult to raise 20 billion yuan in funds. These fund companies must have to find some unconventional means, such as asking brokerages and insurance companies to use money to cushion the situation, or looking for some big investors to compensate for the expenses privately.
Someone asked me about this. The initial condition was to pay an additional fee of 1.3%, which was later increased to 1.5%. Recently, I heard that someone is willing to pay 2%. That is, if I subscribe for 10 million, I will get 150,000 to 200,000 yuan, and I will bear the profit and loss after listing.
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The craziest script
The sudden enthusiasm caused the Shanghai Composite Index to surge by hundreds of points in one day, and it reached 3,000 points in the last minute before the market closed. Who would have dared to think of such a crazy and bloody scenario before the market opened? Last Thursday, we were still worried that the low point of the year might be broken, but in just three trading days, we actually returned to 3,000. Those who trade A-shares are all crazy, even if they are not now, they will be sooner or later.
Today, the two markets traded more than 1.16 trillion yuan, and the market median was +2.94%. After the closing, the Shanghai Composite Index had closed up 0.87% in 2024, and the CSI 300 also closed up 3.33%. The situation has been changing unknowingly.
Today, the two markets traded more than 1.16 trillion yuan, and the market median was +2.94%. After the closing, the Shanghai Composite Index had closed up 0.87% in 2024, and the CSI 300 also closed up 3.33%. The situation has been changing unknowingly.