1. When it comes to expectations, people often have either excessively high or excessively low expectations, making it difficult for anyone to achieve balance.
2. However, shattered expectations can cause significant harm, and the key landing point to avoid this harm is: focus on the present.
3. What does it mean to focus on the present? What does it mean for expectations to shatter? A girl with average looks spends a fortune on cosmetic surgery to find a good husband. Ten years ago, she might have looked like a stunning beauty, but today, it appears as a shattering of expectations. She now has a clearly artificial appearance, spent at least a million, emptied her pockets, and still has to spend tens of thousands each year on maintenance. The most critical point is that marrying her comes with genetic risks, and one must also observe what her parents look like. For such girls, they can only enjoy what they think is beauty.
4. The difficulty for the country over the past 25 years has been that it's hard to inject liquidity. If injected into the people, they don't spend; if into private enterprises, that's impossible; if into state-owned enterprises, it's expected but first, they need to renovate the office, then start a project to feed my relatives; if into local governments, it's just debt relief after debt relief.
5. For us, the challenge is accessing water. On one hand, everyone knows I've been trying hard to manufacture bowls this year, but unfortunately, it hasn't been very successful. Even in Shanghai, consumption has completely collapsed. The easiest place I can think of to access water now is - the stock market.
6. Last night, I added a bit of Alibaba stock. I saw Alibaba's overall strategic focus and its vigorous large-scale buyback, which has reduced the circulating shares by nearly 13%. Without certain confidence, one wouldn't dare to play like this. Additionally, Jack Ma has recently shown signs of a comeback. A legendary enterprise must have a legendary leader, which is personal branding. If Lei Jun doesn't come out to speak, Xiaomi's stock price can't soar. Similarly, Tesla's huge increase is also inseparable from Elon Musk's personal charm, and Jack Ma does not fall short in personal charisma compared to these two. Alibaba's transformation starts with Jack Ma.
7. Perhaps the country really needs Jack Ma.
8. This year and next year, a whole bunch of stock gods will not outperform the Shanghai Composite Index, so stay tuned. Doubling down on the index is the best choice for novice traders with fewer operations.
9. This year, cryptocurrencies and US stocks are likely to be a defensive year, with a stock-bond ratio of 5:5 being appropriate.
#币安MegadropSOLV #BTC重返10万

1. Old fans all know that I have mentioned two high-quality primary projects, one is a good platform, and the other is a good risk swap project.
2. The project itself is of high quality, but I couldn’t avoid my investment being halved, with losses reaching over 50% at one point. However, today it has come back and made a big profit.
3. When facing high-quality project investments, it requires firmness because often these projects have low valuations and little attention. Any slight disturbance can lead to huge losses. Therefore, we conduct an assessment every six months.
4. I also don’t know when the other project will take off. The recent updates on several products have been quite good for me, very user-friendly, and they have conducted a safe audit. The rest is left to time. Right now, it’s all about regular investments because its total supply is deflationary, and 15% of the project’s profits will be used to destroy this token.
5. TMF has been beaten down, but fortunately, the recent dividends have given me a bit of recovery. Holding a stock that can rise and pay dividends feels quite comfortable. Grasping the big cycle is really not difficult, it’s a vague correctness; but if you ask me for precise timing and price, I truly have no ability there. I can only say that I am willing to accept this price.
6. I continue to be optimistic about the monetary easing policy of the Chinese stock market next year. At this time, saying I am optimistic shouldn’t get me criticized, and I believe we will see results by June at the latest.
7. The biggest regret this year is not heavily investing in Xiaomi's calls. I was misled by some so-called value investment teachers. Making cars is not profitable, but it can improve the ecosystem; as long as the whole company is profitable, that’s enough.
8. Based on the last insight, I have a deep understanding of most people's lack of understanding of businesses. So many teachers have never run a business, and it’s indeed very difficult to do good investments because they lack a holistic perspective.
9. In the U.S., increasing tariffs, reducing taxes for companies, and driving out illegal immigrants are three main agendas. I’m curious how all three can be pursued simultaneously.
10. It's not even the Spring Festival yet, and the foot traffic on the streets of Shanghai has decreased by at least half... Where have all the people gone?

Stay Alert in Times of Peace
1. As the year comes to an end, the grand wave of layoffs has begun again. It's more expensive to lay off old employees, so new employees will likely be the first to go. It's unfortunate for those who were laid off at the end of last year to experience that pain again.
2. Even if you haven't been laid off yet, you can't laugh it off. Let's look at the following scenarios.

When you hear that Old Wang next door has been laid off, what are your thoughts for the day?
a. Smiling, relieved that you survived another day.
b. After returning home, you quickly calculate with your wife: the mortgage is 15,000, the car loan is 5,000, school fees for the kid are 10,000, daily expenses are 8,000, and you're thinking you really can't afford to be laid off again.

Most people's thought process is probably b.

3. What about the bosses? How do they think?

a. It's the end of the year, and I really don't know where next year's growth will come from. Maybe let's lay off a few people to save some money. They won't dare to say anything since the economy is bad.
b. Hang in there for the happiness of the family. Even if there are losses, we must protect everyone's jobs.

Most bosses probably choose a.

4. Looking back, most of the irreplaceable skills you've built have been debunked. For most companies, there are very few people and positions that can truly be irreplaceable. Reflecting on your own inadequacies is a process of self-criticism, but don't stop improving your skills.
5. Regarding expectations for next year, I, like Dean Lu, would give it a score of 120 points. You know the phone number, right?
6. The main reason is that in the last meeting, I really didn't hear about pillar industries. Last year there were new productive forces like photovoltaics and lithium batteries, but this year they have all stalled. I only heard about the Hainan Free Trade Port and AI, nothing else. It sounds like the company has lost its main business income.
7. However, I am optimistic about policy expectations. It's normal for policy expectations to contradict fundamental expectations. When fundamentals are declining, good stimulus policies are needed. But everyone, please stop just shouting slogans.
8. The market has entered a stage of fluctuation, and it's very likely to move in a range-bound manner. In a one-sided market, short-term profits are hard to come by, and in a fluctuating market, long-term profits are also hard to achieve. This is an opportunity to make money in the short term, so seize it well.

1. The situation is stronger than the individual; this is the term I heard the most at the recent economic seminar.
2. The situation of internal and external troubles has completely formed, forcing those in power to start responding directly.
3. Another term is shouting slogans; currently, slogan-style meetings have become completely ineffective.
4. Every October, there is a large wave of currency settlement, but in November, there is a record outflow of foreign exchange. I don't know who is behind the internationalization of the renminbi; the internal situation can be stabilized by policy, but the external cannot be controlled.
5. The next 25 years will be an era of massive foreign exchange outflows. The 1980s experienced huge outflows of foreign exchange; previously, the exchange rate of the renminbi to the Hong Kong dollar was 2, and underground money shops traded it up to 10.
6. In plain terms, this time of year should be when the renminbi is the strongest, but it collapses at its strongest point, reflecting the issue of expectations, similar to selling stocks during a rebound.
7. Our foreign exchange reserves have recently been debunked; we have 32 trillion in reserves, but foreign exchange liabilities have also reached 24.5 trillion, meaning the net worth is only less than 800 billion, insufficient to cope with foreign exchange fluctuations.
8. Returning to this year's economic conference, the previously supported industries were not mentioned; last year, new productive forces like photovoltaics and lithium batteries were mentioned, but this year everything has stalled. The only thing I heard mentioned was Hainan Free Trade Port and AI; I didn't hear anything else. To put it bluntly, it may really be that they couldn't find growth points in the industry, so they simply didn't mention them.
9. The whole situation can simply be compared to a company without main business income, experiencing the pains of structural change. Would you invest in a company without main business income? This is also the reason why foreign capital is still allocated in small amounts, although certainly more than in September.

1. The situation is stronger than people. This is the most common phrase I have heard in recent economic seminars.
2. The expectation of internal and external troubles has been fully formed, forcing the top leaders to start dealing with it head-on.
3. Another word is sloganeering. The current sloganeering-style meetings are completely ineffective.
4. There is a large wave of foreign exchange settlement in October every year, but there is a record foreign exchange outflow in November. I don’t know who is the one who internationalized the RMB. The plate inside can be stabilized by policies, and even by force, but the outside can’t be controlled.
5. 25 years will be an era of large-scale foreign exchange outflow. The 1980s experienced a huge outflow of foreign exchange. The RMB to HKD exchange rate used to be 2, and underground banks speculated to 10.
6. In other words, this time should have been the strongest time for the RMB, but at the strongest When it is strong, it falls. What is reflected behind it is the expectation problem, just like when you sell stocks after a rebound
7. Foreign exchange reserves have also been falsified recently. Our foreign exchange reserves are 3.2 trillion, but foreign exchange liabilities have also reached 2.45 trillion, which means that the net value is less than 800 billion, which is not enough to cope with foreign exchange fluctuations
8. Let’s talk about this year’s economic conference. The previous supporting industries were not mentioned. Last year, new quality productivity-photovoltaic-lithium batteries and the like were mentioned. This year, all of them were turned off. I only heard Hainan Free Trade Port and AI mentioned, and nothing else. To put it bluntly, it may be that they really didn’t find the growth point of the industry, so they simply didn’t mention it
9. The entire plate now simply compares the company to the pain period of industrial structure change. Will you invest in a company without main business income? This is also the reason why foreign capital is still allocated in small quantities, of course, it is definitely more than that in September
10. The last one is very important: I wish you all a happy Christmas🧑🎄

The Deadlock of Distributors
1. Recently, nearly half of the newly listed liquor companies reported negative revenue growth in Q3, with only Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu among the top brands maintaining double-digit growth; Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao only managed to sustain positive growth, while Yanghe plummeted by 44.82%.
2. The relationship between liquor companies and distributors has never been equal. When the market is tough, liquor factories can talk about feelings with distributors, but when the market is good, who treats distributors as brothers?
3. In 2012, Moutai also faced its darkest moment, openly warning distributors that anyone who dared to lower prices would be immediately eliminated without hesitation. This measure allowed it to surpass Wuliangye in 2013 and take the top spot.
4. The myth of high growth in the liquor industry in the past largely relied on distributors. Now that distributors are struggling to sell, we are in a phase of survival. When e-commerce platforms offer subsidies, distributors lose their advantages, leading to a decline in sales; e-commerce does not care about the survival of distributors.
5. In 2012, everyone could hold on because there were still good expectations. Now we lack good expectations. During periods of economic decline, the consumption of high-end liquor continues to decrease, which is an established trend. Companies can only continue to pressure distributors to stabilize profits, but distributors cannot clear their inventory and are not allowed to sell at low prices, plus they face low-price attacks from e-commerce platforms. How to resolve this?
6. The group of people who drink Moutai is not significantly affected, but those who drink Wuliangye and Diaoyutai are severely impacted; the middle class is always the first to be hit.
7. I revised this article seven times before publishing it. The picture shows the biting cold consumption in Beijing and Shanghai; the data does not lie. As long as consumption does not improve, the high-margin liquor industry will inevitably face a bubble.
8. Gradually, some people who used to drink Moutai have started drinking customized liquor; thinking about it now, it’s also a substitute option.
9. A heads-up about the declining bullish trend in the pancake circle; many are likely to take profits, especially with annual loans for mining sites. Be cautious that positions do not exceed 60% at this time.
10. Recently testing a quantitative model; once completed, I will share it with everyone. It is purely on-chain, publicly transparent, and traceable.
#白酒

1. Looking at the picture above, I am in Shanghai, and the feeling of consumption in Shanghai is really chilling. After 10 PM, you can hardly see anyone in the core Nanjing West Road business district.
2. Shops in the surrounding area that used to make 5,000 a day last year are now struggling to make even 1,000. The taste is still the same, the location is still the same, the owner is still the same, but the revenue is no longer the same.
3. We have never experienced a real decline; after all, we are still a young new force. It’s a pleasant surprise for outsiders to know that we can still manage without them. The current predicament is actually the result of being beautifully isolated.
4. Snack street stalls have been driven up to 2,000 a day, which is clearly a way to exploit the situation. The contradiction between the proletariat and the bourgeoisie has been escalating since ancient times; everything is for the transfer of wealth.
5. A good friend has started a very large private dining business. I originally wanted to inquire about it, but he didn't mention it, so I won't ask anymore.
6. Several foreign trade bosses have reported that things are going pretty well, perhaps one of the few industries that are still doing okay this year.
7. In the second picture, there are more and more people going to parks and city walks. Why? It's because these activities don't cost money. During economic downturns, the first to be hit are the small business owners, followed by their employees.
8. Just hold on a little longer; we are almost at the point where we need to print money. As long as it doesn't turn into hyperinflation, there is hope. Keep it up.
#经济

Late-night thinking on chasing high strategies (US stocks, cryptocurrency version)

Background keywords: large funds, fear of heights, rising trend, above MA200, signs of breakthrough, medium- and long-term bullish (anti-plagiarism)

Strategy action: 30% of the position is long at the current price, and 70% of the position is reserved for entering the market at an appropriate time (anti-plagiarism)

Strategy explanation:
Scenario 1: Rising: 30% of the position is long at the current price, corresponding to 90% of the total position, that is, you will underperform the market by 10% of the return, but you have 90% of the position return, which is a considerable return; if you are afraid of heights and have large funds, I think you dare not buy 90% of the position directly at the current price (considering false breakthroughs and black swans), so it far exceeds your expected return, and you are very happy (anti-plagiarism)

Scenario 2: Falling: Only If you enter the market with a 30% position and the market falls by 10%, then a 30% drop in your 30% position is equivalent to a 9% drop in your total position. However, if the market falls by 10%, you lose 1% less, and the remaining 70% position can be used to buy at the bottom. You are calm and unhurried (anti-plagiarism)

Scenario 3: High-level shock and sideways trading: This means that you have failed to judge the market. Go back and continue to practice, brother, and figure out the volume and price before playing (anti-plagiarism)

Ps: This strategy is only suitable for chasing highs, and the scope of use is only suitable for US stock indexes and BTC, not for A shares. It is for you who are confused. If it helps you, remember to click a little love (anti-plagiarism)

#追高 #bnb历史新高 #BTC☀

Recommend an ETF strategy for betting on Ethereum
If ETF passes, ETH will rise first, profit!
If ETH rejects strk and falls more than ETH, profit!
It is much better than naked long, recommended!
#eth#ETH大涨 #ETH走势分析

The following is a reference to the pi cycle top indicator
In October 2023, the BTC price bottomed out at 25,000, and an over-bottom signal appeared (history proves that bottom-picking is correct)
In March 2024, the BTC price topped out at 73,000, and an escape top signal appeared (history proves that escaping the top is correct)
The current BTC price is 60,800, and the bottom-picking signal has not yet been reached (but 57,000 has reached the bottom-picking bottom line)
Will history verify again whether this indicator is useful?

BTC has already completed the halving, which is considered a positive development, so a one-month correction is normal. Don't cry and howl, just hold on! #BTC走势分析

I fully support Binance’s DWF. This garbage is a cancer in the cryptocurrency circle. It manipulates the price of the currency and always increases the price to trap people. People in the circle know that the currency controlled by DWF cannot be bought. If you buy it, you will be trapped by at least 30%. Fuck it! Fuck it!

Trial line, those who haven't bought in can enter the market
Place a ladder order, 20% at 28 USD, 30% at 27 USD, 50% at 26 USD (full position)
#ETC减半

Many people ask whether to exchange eth to btc. My answer is to pay attention to the exchange rate!!!
If the eth/btc exchange rate is high, you can exchange it at any time without any problem, but now it is low, the exchange rate will definitely return, and eth's advantages in l1 are irreplaceable
Simple summary: continue to hold eth and wait for the exchange rate to rise
#BTC #ETH

2024.5.8 (Goal)

When I entered the market last year, I was excited to make 10 times the profit. Now it has been changed to 3 times. After several rounds of small-scale market conditions, I found that the altcoins follow the decline but not the rise in both the large and small cycles (except for a few strong coins, but there are huge risks in the past. This round of altcoins is a local growth)

How can I make 3 times the profit in this round of market conditions? My strategy is low leverage + swing trading. 3 times BTC, 2 times ETH and SOL (gradually open positions, generally divided into 3 times) are all low-risk with a probability of explosion of no more than 5%, but the profit can be doubled. If I operate 4-6 swing trading times, I should be able to achieve the goal of 3 times

#BTC #ETH #sol

Smooth transition

$BTC
2x leverage is enabled, the account will be liquidated only when the price drops to 30,000
Sleep peacefully, earn 1x more profit