The sudden enthusiasm caused the Shanghai Composite Index to surge by hundreds of points in one day, and it reached 3,000 points in the last minute before the market closed. Who would have dared to think of such a crazy and bloody scenario before the market opened? Last Thursday, we were still worried that the low point of the year might be broken, but in just three trading days, we actually returned to 3,000. Those who trade A-shares are all crazy, even if they are not now, they will be sooner or later.
Today, the two markets traded more than 1.16 trillion yuan, and the market median was +2.94%. After the closing, the Shanghai Composite Index had closed up 0.87% in 2024, and the CSI 300 also closed up 3.33%. The situation has been changing unknowingly.
In fact, the market was still a bit tense this morning, but the turning point occurred in the afternoon, when almost all indexes rose violently at the same time, setting off the prelude to a shocking rebound. So what happened at noon? Mainly, zyzzj held an economic meeting today and released the content of the meeting after 1 pm, mainly including:
1. We must lower the reserve ratio and implement forceful interest rate cuts.
2. Promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and increase the issuance of "white list" loans.
3. Support the revitalization of existing idle land.
4. Vigorously guide medium- and long-term funds into the market and clear the bottlenecks for social security, insurance, and financial management funds to enter the market.
5. Support mergers and acquisitions and restructuring of listed companies.
6. Research and formulate policies to protect small and medium-sized investors.
7. Maintain employment, stabilize prices, and promote consumption.
The core idea is to implement stimulus policies with greater determination and force.
In addition, foreign media broke a lot of news today. Bloomberg said that the government is considering injecting 1 trillion yuan into state-owned banks to increase loans to stimulate the economy; Reuters said that 2 trillion yuan of bonds will be issued this year, 1 trillion yuan to solve local debts, and 1 trillion yuan to stimulate the economy, such as home appliance replacement and subsidies for multiple families. Both sides mentioned that in order to achieve the 5% GDP target, the government is determined to stimulate liquidity more vigorously.
Morgan Stanley called this meeting a positive surprise, and Goldman Sachs believes that this round of policies will catalyze a policy rebound and recommends tactical investment in Chinese stocks. Let me translate for you what tactical investment means, which means that long-term strategies are not discussed for the time being, and short-term bulls can be used for a wave.
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In terms of sectors, the leading gains today are all related to consumption. Liquor surged 9.88%, not individual stocks, but the entire sector. Many stocks hit the daily limit before 2:30. The next largest sector is real estate, which rose 7.5% today. Compared with the difficult task of supporting the national housing prices, it is much easier to support the real estate sector. Because the former is worth hundreds of billions, while the latter is less than 1 trillion in total.
Although we cannot see the northbound data, we can clearly feel that a large amount of foreign capital has flowed back today, because the stocks that have performed well in the market are those that were heavily held by the northbound stocks in the past, which may be the preference of the short-term market style.
After today's close, foreign futures are still rising, and A50 has risen by 4.3% compared to the closing at 3 pm, which means that tomorrow morning it will definitely open higher and continue the short squeeze. This unreasonable rise in the market has many problems at the technical level and is unsustainable, but under the pull of extreme emotions, you can't make any rational constraints on the short-term trend.
Maybe it can only run wild for 3-4 trading days, but these 3-4 trading days are enough to cause terrible harm to those who bet on the wrong direction. The market tortures bulls like boiling frogs in warm water and cutting meat with a blunt knife, and punishes bears like a violent storm, killing them with three punches.
I have gained a lot in the past three days, but I am not very excited because all I gained is the loss I made before. I was optimistic when the CSI 500 index was at 6,500 points a few years ago, but today it is less than 5,000 points. I am sad when I think about it.
The only consolation is that the Hong Kong stock market has performed strongly this year, with a cumulative increase of 20%. I haven't logged into my account for almost a year. Today I went back and took a look, and the losses have been greatly narrowed. I have prepared myself mentally before, and I will use the US dollar earnings to fill the gaps in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. If I can lose less in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks now, I will feel comfortable when I settle accounts at the end of the year.
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Finally, I want to share a little gossip I heard today. Several friends have reported that the money that the financial industry asked employees to pay back was returned. Haha, the operation of asking people to pay back their wages is very confusing, and the operation of returning the money is also very confusing. I really think that many people and things are just makeshift teams. They do things on impulse and then regret it and withdraw it.
This is probably the underlying tone of the Chinese stock market, where emotions outweigh logic, passion outweighs rationality, so let's just play along.