The capital market was very calm this weekend and nothing major happened, but it’s not good to have a blank night report. I’ll go through a few of them so you can get an impression.

1. At the regular policy briefing held by the State Council Information Office on Friday, the 22nd, a reporter asked how China viewed the possibility that the United States would impose a 60% tariff on China. The spokesperson replied that China's economy has strong resilience, great potential, and sufficient vitality to withstand and resolve external shocks. The US move will cause American consumers to pay higher prices and lead to rising inflation.

This incident has a potential impact on the stock market, because there was a group of people in the capital market who believed that Trump would raise tariff barriers after taking office. As a hedge, the Chinese government is likely to introduce policies to stimulate domestic consumption. Judging from the response from the State Council Information Office on Friday, China is not worried about the US tariff increase and is relatively confident, which makes some analysts realize that the expected stimulus policy may not be realized.

The sudden enthusiasm caused the Shanghai Composite Index to surge by hundreds of points in one day, and it reached 3,000 points in the last minute before the market closed. Who would have dared to think of such a crazy and bloody scenario before the market opened? Last Thursday, we were still worried that the low point of the year might be broken, but in just three trading days, we actually returned to 3,000. Those who trade A-shares are all crazy, even if they are not now, they will be sooner or later.

Today, the two markets traded more than 1.16 trillion yuan, and the market median was +2.94%. After the closing, the Shanghai Composite Index had closed up 0.87% in 2024, and the CSI 300 also closed up 3.33%. The situation has been changing unknowingly.

This weekend was relatively quiet, so there isn't a lot worth talking about.

1. The fact that the LPR did not fall in September was on Friday, which was not a big surprise. The People's Bank of China is not a subsidiary of the Federal Reserve, so there is no need for interest rates to follow. And usually when the interest rate is lowered, there will be some advance preparations, such as lowering the deposit rate first.

This weekend, there was news about a deposit rate cut. Some city banks cut their deposit rates, but this was not the start of a new round of rate cuts, but the end of the rate cut on July 25. Here is a brief explanation of the different paces of rate cuts for large and small banks. Usually, large banks cut first, followed by small banks.

Pick a few things to talk about.

First of all, the LPR announced early in the morning has not changed, and both the 1-year and 5-year terms remain the same.

The official explanation was that the current interest rate spread of banks is relatively small (about 1.5%), which is lower than the normal standard for bank profits. It will take some time to digest, but it did not say how long it will take. Bloomberg reported three consecutive reports of the decline in existing mortgage rates this month, each with more details than the last. This is definitely not made up. I believe it is true and I believe it will be implemented when the time is right.

But as I said last night, I think the communication mechanism between decision-makers and the market should be improved. Many of our financial media are now gradually losing the ability to link to the truth except for serving as loudspeakers. Many times some important information has to be exported and then disseminated domestically. This is not only unfair, but also not conducive to market stability.

As you can see, the Fed ultimately chose to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

The Federal Reserve then released the latest interest rate dot chart, as follows:

Let me give a brief update for new readers. The vertical axis of this graph is the interest rate, with the numbers on the far right, and the horizontal axis is time, in years.

Every year, there are 19 points, which represent the votes of 19 members of the Federal Reserve, including the members of the Federal Reserve Board and the presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks. The votes are secret, and you can see that in 2024, one person voted for the lowest 4-4.25%, but the public does not know who voted for this.

I would like to make a few additional comments on the part about stock repurchases in last night’s article.
There are two main purposes for a listed company to repurchase its stocks. One is to cancel the shares, which will increase the rights and interests of all remaining shareholders and is the best option. The other is to distribute the repurchased shares to employees as equity incentives. This type of repurchase will still be thrown back into the secondary market, and from the perspective of boosting stock prices, it is completely incomparable to cancelling shares.
Most of the U.S. stock repurchases are of the first type. For example, Apple had a total of 26.3 billion shares 10 years ago. After years of repurchase, cancellation, repurchase, and cancellation, there are now 15.2 billion shares left, and 42% of the shares have been cancelled. This is an astronomical figure that is difficult for ordinary people to understand. Let me give you a more popular example. If the cancelled shares are converted into market value, it is roughly equivalent to 1/4 of the total market value of A shares.

Let me give you some valuable information about the Mid-Autumn Festival.

1. The August housing prices in 70 cities across the country were released. Except for Jilin, the remaining 69 cities all saw a decline. Moreover, regardless of whether it was first-tier, second-tier or third-tier cities, the month-on-month decline rate was significantly faster than in July, and there was no sign of bottoming out or stabilizing.

Regarding the bottoming out of housing prices, the main references are the Japanese and American models. The American model bottoms out in 2027, and the Japanese model bottoms out in 2040. Both are the result of comprehensive deleveraging after the bubble burst. History will not simply repeat itself, and we do not necessarily have to choose one of the two models of the United States and Japan. Perhaps our situation is different from that of the United States and Japan.

I'm updating last night's post. I said that the trend of Hangzhou before 2019 is not visible, and my friends from Trend Animals sent me more detailed data. To be precise, the current housing prices in Hangzhou have fallen to around May 2017.

This is the pure housing price index. If you follow the calculation principles I used last night and include the mortgage interest you have paid since buying the house and the principal you have invested (the opportunity cost is calculated based on the risk-free government bond interest rate), I think there is not much profit to be made if you bought it in 2015-2016.

Then someone asked me about trusts. The regulatory authorities have long stipulated that such products are prohibited from being publicly promoted, so I would not recommend them. Two years ago, a buddy of mine who worked in an institution introduced me to the product he was responsible for at the time. It was locked for 2 years and had a return of 6.4%. If you buy 1,000, it will be 6.7%. I made a comprehensive judgment and felt that the cost performance was not bad. At that time, my mortgage interest rate was 4.1%, and the wealth management there had a 6.7%, with a 2.6% interest rate difference. This arbitrage could be done.

I haven't recovered from my illness yet. I was groggy in bed all day today. I thought it was time to go to work at night, so I took some antipyretic medicine to wake up. The human body is really a precision instrument. When the temperature was 37.5 degrees, I felt fine. When the temperature reached 38.2, I was completely depressed and everything was wrong. It was just less than 1 degree, and the whole person was in two completely different states. So carbon-based life is really fragile, with such poor adaptability, how far can it go if it leaves the greenhouse of the earth...

Yesterday a reader left a message asking whether I lost money on the house I bought since Beijing’s housing prices have fallen.

I bought it in May 2016, the total price was 1400, various taxes and fees + balcony enclosure were about 100, the loan was 900, the interest rate was 15% off, about 4.16%. When the housing market was good, the same apartment in the community was sold for about 2000, but the latest transaction has dropped to 1600-1700.

Yesterday’s article was eventually lost, so it doesn’t matter whether you support it or not. The key point is that this is not something we can discuss.

I have been sick for the past two days. My throat felt uncomfortable last night. After I delivered the night report, my fever started to rise to 38.5. I slept soundly all night. Now the fever has subsided, and I am starting to have a runny nose and cough. All these symptoms make it seem like I have become positive again.

The virus that terrified us a few years ago has now become part of our daily lives. My family gave me a universal prescription: drink more water, get more sleep, and that's it.

When I was watching the news this afternoon, I found that the housing price data for August was released. This is an important data that I observe month by month, and I immediately became excited:

Today, the entire Internet is hotly discussing the delayed retirement policy. From the many preheatings in the past few years to today's policy implementation, the general public has actually been given a long time to prepare psychologically. I was also curious and checked the official delayed retirement calculator, and the results are as follows:

It was just as I thought. We, the people born in the 1980s, have stacked up the buffs and are the group mainly affected by the policy. The upper limit of this delayed retirement policy is 36 months, and I haven’t wasted a single month.

Speaking of delaying retirement, I would like to first tell a little story that happened in our family.

My mother has told me one thing at least five times. In her era, people were supposed to retire at 50. But just when she was about to turn 50, the government issued a policy in 2008 that female cadres could delay retirement by five years, that is, they could work until they were 55. When this policy was issued, my mother was less than 10 days away from turning 50, so she happened to catch the last train.

Let me tell you something I heard today.

Didn’t I tell you a few days ago that CSI 500a would issue 10 ETF funds, each with a scale of 2 billion, adding up to 20 billion, and the deadline is the 23rd of this month.

At that time, I said that the current market situation was too bad and it was difficult to raise 20 billion yuan in funds. These fund companies must have to find some unconventional means, such as asking brokerages and insurance companies to use money to cushion the situation, or looking for some big investors to compensate for the expenses privately.

Someone asked me about this. The initial condition was to pay an additional fee of 1.3%, which was later increased to 1.5%. Recently, I heard that someone is willing to pay 2%. That is, if I subscribe for 10 million, I will get 150,000 to 200,000 yuan, and I will bear the profit and loss after listing.

Today's market is quite strange.

Shanghai Composite Index -0.8%, Shenzhen Component Index +0.4%, ChiNext Index +1.2%, Science and Technology Innovation Board +0.65%, CSI 300 -0.3%, CSI 500 +0.16%, CSI 1000 flat.

It seems that there are both ups and downs, and the ups are all indices of small and medium-sized stocks, but I took a look at the median and found that it fell by 0.69% today, which is quite surprising. This shows that there must be sectors with a high weight in several small and medium-sized stock indices that performed particularly well.

I looked at the industry breakdown and found the answer. Today, energy metals rose 5.6%, batteries rose 3%, and photovoltaics rose nearly 2%. The two new energy bears made a complete turnaround today.

When I reviewed the game in the evening, I was surprised to hear that the Chinese national team was in the lead. I quickly opened the elevator to check the score, and it was indeed 1:0. In the 14th minute, the Saudi defender scored an own goal. Before I could even sigh, there was another surprise on the field. A Saudi player committed a foul and received a red card, and one player was sent off.

Wow, the team used all their good luck in the last game with a 7:0 victory, and released it all in this game. In less than 20 minutes at home, the opponent conceded an own goal and then received a red card. This was a dream start that couldn't be more dreamy, and the Chinese national team forced 3 points into their mouths.

I'll write the night report first. By the time I finish, the competition will have ended. I'll wait and see the result.

When I first came online today, I saw many messages asking me how much I drank last night. My friend and I shared a bottle of Feitian, and I gave more than 1 or 2 liang to his father-in-law, and I basically split the rest, so it was about 4 liang of liquor. I was fine when I left his house, but when I got home, I felt so sleepy that I had to go to bed.
I didn't drink much when I was young, but I started to like drinking after I turned 35. When middle-aged men eat together, they won't drink unless they are in a hurry for a work meal. So now when I hear about young people not drinking and no one consuming liquor anymore, I just laugh it off. My brothers are still young, and they will be unlocked automatically in a few years.

On Thursday night, there was a piece of news that came out too late, so I didn't include it in my evening report. Guotai Junan Securities was planning to absorb and merge Haitong Securities. This was the first merger of large securities firms after the release of the Nine Measures. Guotai Junan Securities and Haitong Securities were both suspended on Friday. Other securities sectors that were trading once surged to 2.5% in the morning, but fell to 0.5% at the close, which was equivalent to leaving some people out in the cold.

Traditionally, there are two types of positive factors for securities stocks. One is the reduction of stamp duty, which is unquestionably a once-in-a-decade event. The other is the merger of securities firms, which is a tradition and occurs almost every one or two years.

As soon as I checked in, I found that last night's article was gone. But the strange thing is that when it was gone before, I would receive a system notification that the article was deleted, but this time there was no notification. The status of the article is visible only to the operator... I have never encountered this situation before.

I made a blind guess in my heart as to what the problem was, but I certainly wouldn't say it out loud. This feeling was like a fortune teller and the vague secrets of heaven, which were vague and unpredictable, and could not be explained even if I tried to predict them.

Last night, readers left me two good questions. One is why the performance of Chinese football has been getting worse and worse after 30 years of professionalization. The other is why the performance of Chinese basketball has been getting worse and worse despite its strong mass base.

The aftermath of last night has been many people complaining about the poor performance of the Chinese men's football team until today, when they were kicked 7 times by Japan. You have to understand that most of them don't play football or care about it, and they don't know the gap between Chinese and Japanese football today.
I recently saw a video of a Japanese high school football match on TikTok, which was absolutely stunning. They hold a high school league every year, with more than 4,000 school teams signing up to participate. After a preliminary round, 48 teams are selected to participate in the national competition, which is professionally staffed and broadcast on TV.

Tonight there is a World Cup qualifier between China and Japan, Japan is at home. Even I, who don't usually watch football, know clearly that the two teams are not at the same level of strength. Japan has many star players in the European leagues, and has won and lost against the European and American powers in the World Cup. Currently, it is probably in the lower reaches of the world's top 8-16.

The Chinese men's football team was supposed to go home in the group stage, but was carried on a stretcher by Singapore at the last minute to enter the top ten. The current Chinese team is probably in the lower second tier of Asia, and is at the level of Asia's top 10-15.

跌破2800了，很多人在转发胡锡进之前在参加一次线下活动时的发言截图，说跌破2800他就去跳楼。其实这段内容是拼接的，原话说的是他的50万如果跌到5万，他可能就要去跳楼了，没说过跌破2800点就跳楼。他就算再不懂股市也应该能感觉到2800并不安全，不可能在这个位置撂狠话。

我之前和老胡有过交流，他的持仓以蓝筹股和白马股为主，如果他都跌到5万（-90%），那a股乃至这个国家大概也已经风雨飘摇了。

2800要是搁以前会觉得是一个很低很吓人的位置，但是这一波靠着国家队日日兜底，层层托举，从3174点跌到2784点花了三个半月的时间，这就是现实版的温水煮青蛙。我冒昧问一下诸位蛙兄弟，锅里面感觉如何，水温烫不烫...?

看k线，中间也有过几次阳线反弹，但这一步三回头的才容易把人诱进去，也给一些犹豫不决的人希望。我的建议是阴跌不抄底，跌到鬼哭狼嚎，全场骂天骂地了再博一博。

也许有国家队的干预，那种场面永远都不会发生，也许后面的剧本也都是阴跌煮青蛙，那就算了，错过就错过，没什么可惜的。

再过半个月美联储就会降息，到时候国内可能也会跟进降息，但这一切对a股的刺激作用会有多大很难讲。这两天看到