Today is another tombstone line, opening almost at the highest point of the day, and then closing near the lowest point of the day. Such a trend is the most damaging to market sentiment, and the bravest investors lose the most. Those who crash the market profit, while those who hold their positions are often the ones who suffer.
I took a look at the 30-minute K-line of the A50 futures. It was almost after the A-shares closed yesterday that the news came out, immediately rising by 5%, and then suddenly diving before the A-shares opened today, almost erasing all the gains.
Similar situations have happened many times in the past few years, where good news lifts the market after closing, and it drops again before opening. Some say this is foreign capital deliberately not wanting to lift A-shares, which may be true, as the intention is quite obvious. However, from another perspective, it can also be interpreted as foreign capital lacking confidence in A-shares, playing around with good news at midnight, and reverting back to normal before dawn.
Otherwise, if the opening is really hit, can the A-shares withstand the massive selling of over a trillion? The daily trading volume of the A50 is only a few hundred billion.
Many people curse after the market closes, asking who is selling off. In fact, there is no need to ask; there are certainly public offerings, private placements, as well as large speculators, including many retail investors. With so many instances of A-shares opening high and closing low, there has long been a demonstration effect, and those who missed out today and regret it may join the selling army next time there is a high opening.
Because those who sell off always gain rewards, while those who stay behind are always punished, the market's trend can be imagined over time. To change this situation, there must be a few strong surges that do not retrace, making sellers bear a squeeze of 20-30%, experiencing a painful lesson; but do you think the current A-shares have this capability?
Actually, it's hard to say. Who knows if it will go crazy like at the end of September again? That time, those who were selling were severely punished, but in recent years, that was really the only time.
I didn't change my position today. I played late last night, and by the time I woke up this morning, it was all over. I'm now purely investing in the stock market with a Zen attitude. The money I've already invested, I accept, but I will try to minimize the time invested in it because time is also a cost. The long-term return rate of the CSI 500 is 2-3%, and with the stock index discount, it's 6-7%. Because of the margin leverage (3-4 times), the efficiency of capital occupation results in a return rate of 15-20%, which is still acceptable.
As for the ups and downs of the stock index itself, let it be. If it really rises to the ideal price, then sell; if not, it’s acceptable to continue holding. On days like today, where it opens high and closes low, I wouldn't be angry. People can only be hurt by sincere feelings. If you knew from the beginning that this was just a casual fling, of course, you would just laugh it off.
……
1. The yields on major interbank bonds continue to decline, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping below 1.85%, falling quite fast. On the other hand, the 30-year government bond ETF in A-shares rose by 1.87% today, reaching a historical high, increasing by 20% in the past year. The slow bull market that stocks long for but cannot obtain has actually emerged in the bond market.
Usually, the returns on bond funds come from two parts: the first part is the interest from the bonds themselves, which is stable but not very high; the second part is the rise in bond prices due to falling interest rates, which is currently the main driver of net value increase.
Although the central bank has repeatedly intimidated the funds that are bullish on the bond market, they can only drop temporarily because everyone has seen it clearly: the economy is bad, the housing market is bad, and monetary easing is inevitable next year. Institutions expect interest rates to drop by 40-50 basis points next year, which opens up space for bond prices to rise.
2. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. plans to start a special dividend in 2024, distributing cash of 1.23 yuan per share. This dividend yield is less than 0.5%, so it's better than nothing.
3. The South Korean National Assembly passed a bill confirming the arrest of eight people, including Yoon Suk-yeol, so yet again, another South Korean president has stepped into the sewing machine. There have been 12 presidents in South Korea's history, and less than a quarter of them have completed their terms.
4. The broad-based index has the opportunity to be included in pension funds next, and once purchased, it locks in for 20 to 30 years. As for the long-term return rate of the A-share index, I calculated it for you before, which is basically around an annualized 3%. If you deposit it as a pension insurance, it would be acceptable. The key is that it can avoid taxes.
If your annual income is around 204,000 yuan, you can purchase pension funds tax-free for 1,200 yuan. For an annual income of 480,000 yuan, you can be tax-free for 3,600 yuan per year. For those with an annual income of over 1 million, the maximum tax exemption can reach 5,400 yuan. Considering the tax exemption factor, the cost-effectiveness of purchasing is still pretty good.
5. Mao Geping's stocks were listed, rising 76% on the first day, with a total market value exceeding 24 billion. This stock has become one of the more profitable ones in this year's Hong Kong IPOs. It's a pity that it could have grown into a mid-sized white horse in A-shares, as the consumer sector has lacked new star stocks in recent years.
That's all for tonight.
