Let me tell you something I heard today.
Didn’t I tell you a few days ago that CSI 500a would issue 10 ETF funds, each with a scale of 2 billion, adding up to 20 billion, and the deadline is the 23rd of this month.
At that time, I said that the current market situation was too bad and it was difficult to raise 20 billion yuan in funds. These fund companies must have to find some unconventional means, such as asking brokerages and insurance companies to use money to cushion the situation, or looking for some big investors to compensate for the expenses privately.
Someone asked me about this. The initial condition was to pay an additional fee of 1.3%, which was later increased to 1.5%. Recently, I heard that someone is willing to pay 2%. That is, if I subscribe for 10 million, I will get 150,000 to 200,000 yuan, and I will bear the profit and loss after listing.
This involves an arbitrage opportunity. Some people in the industry have calculated that using three CSI 300 and one CSI 500 short order can hedge the equivalent CSI A500 index. In theory, if the hedge is perfect, the marketing incentive fee can be earned.
But this is only in theory. In actual operation, the public fund will only tell you an approximate time when building a position. It is impossible for them to tell me the progress of building a position while buying at work. If the market is stable, it is fine. However, if there is a daily fluctuation of more than 3%, the hedging will have a large exposure, and it will be difficult to predict the win or loss.
In fact, with the market situation, there is no need to create a new index. The A-share index is not because the index components are poorly selected, but because of the overall decline. No matter how you try to piece together the index, you can't get a good result. In the end, the fund companies found brokerages and banks to cooperate with the issuance of ETFs, and then the task was assigned to grassroots employees. The customers that the employees could contact had lost money in buying A-shares and funds in the past few years, and it was difficult to sell them. In the end, in order to complete the task, many people had to pay for the purchases themselves, and they complained about the losses. Some time ago, someone went to the message board of the regulatory department to cry miserably.
This is how the cheating industry works. After you cheat your customers, your employees won’t be able to escape.
……
Today, A-shares opened high and closed low again. The first 15 minutes in the morning were eye-catching, and then nothing happened. The total transaction volume for the day was just over 500 billion, and the median was -0.37%. It can't be called a storm, but it can only be said that the warm water has been boiled for another day. I don't know if the brothers in the pot are playing dead or are already cooked.
Liquor was the worst hit today, and was the only sector to drop more than 2%. The reason was that the sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival, which was originally a peak season, were not good, and the performance was expected to drop by 20-30% year-on-year. The source of the news was a person from the liquor association. Of course, most distributors and stores also reported the market's chill, so the data is credible.
Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao both hit new lows today. I own both. I sold some of them before, but I still have more than half left. Now they are falling too fast. Liquor has gone through many bull and bear cycles in history. I also want to be a long-term value investor, but the Chinese economy was still high in the previous bear cycle of the stock market. This time the external environment has changed significantly, and I am not sure whether there will be a bull cycle in the future.
I feel that my mentality has changed dramatically in the past few years. I felt that A-shares were undervalued when it was at 3,500 points before, but now I feel confused when it is at 2,700. Emotionally, I understand those funds that speculate on the concept of air. It is better to have nothing, just pure emotion, and speculate randomly, which is better than speculating on valuations and fundamentals.
Because there will be bad news about valuation and fundamentals every now and then, which will hit the team's confidence. On the contrary, it is an empty concept and metaphysical logic. As long as the drum beats, everyone relies on their own abilities. It is a zero-sum game after all.
……
1. Bloomberg News reported again that the interest rates of existing mortgage loans will drop, saying that the first reduction will occur as early as this month, involving mortgage loans of 5 trillion US dollars, and some mortgage loans may be immediately reduced by 50 basis points. People familiar with the matter said that the time has not yet been finalized and may still change. This is the third time in a row that foreign media have recently said that the existing mortgage loans will be reduced. I think the confidence is very high. It is hard to say when, but this matter itself is imperative.
2. Tongwei Co., Ltd. plans to spend 5 billion yuan to acquire Runyang Co., Ltd. this year. It was originally the largest photovoltaic M&A case this year. However, the latest news is that the main battery base of Runyang Co., Ltd. has been shut down for holidays. There are currently no orders to start work, and it is difficult to guarantee that it will resume work in the future. Currently, employees who intend to leave are going through the compensation procedures. This is good, saving money for Tongwei shareholders.
3. China's 30-year treasury bond ETF hit a record high, India's index hit a record high, and spot gold 2535 hit a record high.
4. The Japanese market generally expects the central bank to raise interest rates, and the stock market rebounded by more than 3%. There is a risk here. In the past few years, when Japan had zero interest rates and the US dollar had 5% interest rates, a large amount of Japanese funds were converted into US dollars to arbitrage US stocks. Now that the US dollar is going to cut interest rates and the yen is going to raise interest rates, the exchange rate will definitely reverse, and some funds will flow out of the US stock market, thus suppressing the US stock market. I am actually not very optimistic about the overall performance of the US stock market in the next year.
5. SpaceX completed the commercial astronaut spacewalk today. But to be honest, it was a little below my expectations. It was not a complete spacewalk, but as shown in the picture below, half of the body was exposed outside the spacecraft for 15-20 minutes, which was considered a spacewalk. The astronaut held the guardrail with his hands, and the clothes were still connected to the life-sustaining tube, so he could not go out too far. The so-called 2 hours of spacewalk, one and a half hours were spent testing the pressurization system in the spacecraft.
Maybe it's for safety reasons. When we look at the picture, it seems that the spacecraft is stationary, but in fact it is traveling at an extremely fast speed of 8 kilometers per second. It can circle the earth in less than 2 hours. After all, it is just a commercial space flight and they are unwilling to take greater risks.
You may be shocked when you see the title, thinking that I sold half of my stocks. I did it on purpose.
