When I first came online today, I saw many messages asking me how much I drank last night. My friend and I shared a bottle of Feitian, and I gave more than 1 or 2 liang to his father-in-law, and I basically split the rest, so it was about 4 liang of liquor. I was fine when I left his house, but when I got home, I felt so sleepy that I had to go to bed.
I didn't drink much when I was young, but I started to like drinking after I turned 35. When middle-aged men eat together, they won't drink unless they are in a hurry for a work meal. So now when I hear about young people not drinking and no one consuming liquor anymore, I just laugh it off. My brothers are still young, and they will be unlocked automatically in a few years.
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Today, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.06%, but the median of the entire market was still acceptable, falling by only 0.33%. The large drop in the index is due to the heavy losses in the dividend sector. The top decliners today include gold -2.7%, highways -2.3%, coal -1.9%, and banks -1.7%, all of which are high-dividend concepts that performed strongly in the first half of the year.
Optimists interpret this as funds flowing out of the safe-haven sector, and they may go to buy the bottom of other oversold sectors; pessimists feel that the last refuge of A-shares has also been conquered, and the market has entered the darkest moment of an all-round decline. Different mentalities will lead to different perceptions.
In fact, today was originally worse, but in the last 15 minutes, a large amount of funds rushed in and rapidly pulled up the ChiNext Index ETF, which narrowed the decline of small and medium-sized stocks. This may be a signal worth paying attention to in the market in recent days, that is, the government has stopped supporting the bottom of the CSI 300. It did not intervene in the decline yesterday and today, but the ChiNext Index lifted it.
As a result, the main board has gradually caught up with the double innovation in terms of the decline and the rhythm of the decline. At present, all major indexes have approached the low point of February 5 this year. I think it is expected to stop falling and rebound in the short term (this week). It has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the Chinese economy. It is a purely technical rebound. The left and right bottoms, weekly deviations, and gap filling are all signals, so if you have been holding on and not selling, why not wait and see in the next few days?
It's just that this round of decline that started in May was buffered by layers of funds from government forces, which resulted in a slow and long decline. The accumulated potential energy is not large enough, so even if there is a rebound, the strength will be significantly smaller than that in February. You should not have too high expectations. It's just that for those who have already left the market in despair, they may be able to sell more and make more money.
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1. The National Bureau of Statistics released that the CPI for August increased by 0.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month; to put it simply, year-on-year refers to the comparison with last year, and month-on-month refers to the comparison with last month. This data is slightly lower than market expectations. The pork price has risen well in recent months, which has played a key role in boosting the CPI. However, the pork sector of A shares has fallen by 24% since May. This is the hellish stock market, with confidence collapsing and liquidity withdrawn. Regardless of whether the performance is good or bad, it will be smashed.
The same day's announcement showed a year-on-year decline of 1.8% and a month-on-month decline of 0.7%. The full name of PPI is industrial producer price index. Both figures are significantly lower than market expectations, reflecting the current insufficient market demand and falling commodity prices.
2. The 30-year Treasury bond ETF hit a new historical high. It had previously fallen twice due to the suppression of the central bank, and had briefly triggered a debate among bondholders about whether to stay or leave. But as long as you have a clear understanding of China's current actual situation, you will know that further interest rate cuts are inevitable, and bonds will naturally not stop there.
The bond fund that I have heavily invested in has returned 4.5% in the past year, 12.54% in the past three years, and 25.14% in the past five years. This return is still very good for liquidity management, and bonds are also the product with the best returns in China's financial sector in recent years.
In addition, two years ago, I asked my wife to buy a municipal bond product with a 24-month locked-in return of 6.8%. It will mature and be redeemed in a few days. The rolled-over product only has a 4.5% return for 24 months, which is not cost-effective, so I will not continue to invest.
3. Huawei's foldable screen mobile phone has now received more than 2.8 million online reservations (no deposit required). The price has not yet been announced, but it is rumored to be around 20,000 yuan. As usual, new mobile phones will be sold at a high premium in the early stage before production capacity is up, so it is possible that it will be sold for 30,000 or 40,000 yuan on second-hand platforms when it is newly launched. This is a hot concept recently, and the curved screen sector of A-shares will definitely follow suit.
4. I read the news today that a customer of China Merchants Bank bought a film and television company's asset management plan product on the bank's app. He lost 1 million yuan and only had 11,600 yuan left. He took China Merchants Bank to court. What makes people wonder is why such a high-risk product of film and television private placement is placed in the sale column of the bank's app. The seller is unreliable and the buyer is careless. In the film and television industry, it costs 200 million to make a movie about a delivery man, and 300 million to make a movie about weight loss. This is still a star project, which is relatively transparent. There are many more small projects that are difficult to explain. How can ordinary people who are not experts invest in this...
5. There are some scattered things, such as Morgan reducing its holdings in China Duty Free, Alibaba will be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect tomorrow, the shipment forecast for the Apple 16 series this year has been raised to 88-89 million, Midea plans to issue 492 million Hong Kong shares, and Huaxing’s stock price fell 60% after resuming trading. These are just a quick glance and that’s it.
That's all.