#内容挖矿

Many people look forward to getting rich overnight, but real wealth growth usually comes from patience and strategy. Let's do some calculations. Most people may lose 50% this year, but it will be extremely difficult to earn back 50% next year. But in comparison, if we can make a profit of 10% this year and another 10% next year, is this goal easier to achieve? Yes, you just need to not be greedy for huge profits, set a reasonable rate of return target, and then choose coins according to this goal. If you fail to achieve your rate of return target within three months, then continue to hold it. After five months, you are very likely to get a surprise of a monthly rate of return of 30%.

Do not blindly pursue high returns. The key is to set reasonable goals and hold patiently. Choose the right big bull coin and hold it patiently, and you will find that this opportunity to make money with certainty is not out of reach.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿

Are the leeks in the currency circle stupid and rich?

There are very few people who really understand Qiu Ge's articles and integrate knowledge and practice. Leeks always have the fantasy of soaring currency prices, carry out full-position operations, and are unwilling to stop losses. Sometimes, if you think carefully, it is inevitable that leeks lose money, not that the dealer is too cunning. Even if you go to the US stock market, the result is the same.

Don't rush to get on the bus. When you hear that others have made money, you feel itchy in your heart. Don't rush in anxiously.

Set a bottom line for yourself and think clearly about how much loss you can bear. Don't invest all your money just to gamble. Determine the stop loss point and stop immediately when the loss reaches a certain level.

Don't be swayed by emotions. The currency market fluctuates violently. Don't rush to sell just because others are as anxious as ants on a hot pot, and don't blindly follow the rise just because others are buying.

In conclusion: It is enough to trade twice a year. Accept reality and abandon fantasy. From the perspective of cycle theory, the price of Bitcoin will hit a new low next. Do you know how to operate it?

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿

The economic situation has been poor in recent years. After witnessing many personnel changes and many people's decline from glory, I feel more and more: life is like thirty years in the east and thirty years in the west. Behind every change of feng shui, there are people who have made great efforts, forbearance and restraint.
How many big brothers who were once in the limelight have now disappeared, and how many "Wang Sicong's second generation" who were once arrogant and arrogant now know how to restrain themselves. How many children from ordinary families whose self-esteem was trampled by them have realized their ideal life bit by bit with their unremitting efforts over the years, step by step, down-to-earth.
So I often say that people must respect others when they are going well, and respect themselves even more in adversity! The days of holding an umbrella alone are difficult, but this is exactly the process of a person's self-righteousness. I hope that everyone who is still struggling will not give up!

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

BTC However, judging from the data of the past two weeks, the situation is not good. The inventory of the exchange continues to rise, which means that more and more investors are beginning to panic. The divergence of this matter lies in the last dot plot. Investors who bet on three interest rate cuts were disappointed, so investors began to leave the market in droves.

When this happens, selling pressure often forms. The increase in selling pressure causes prices to fall, causing many losing investors to want to get their money back, so more BTC is stored in the exchange. These investors either wait for a rebound to flee, or cut their losses and flee when there is a bigger negative impact. So it has been said since two weeks ago that before the new inventory of the exchange is consumed, the pressure on the price will be greater.

Two weeks ago on Friday, there was an accumulation of about 7,000 BTC, last Friday it was about 15,000 BTC, and today it is about 25,000 BTC. If it can rise steadily, digest these volumes first. Several Fridays have the same commonality. There are always a lot of BTC at more than $20,000. There have been several such Fridays. It is still unclear why, and these turnovers are neither entering the exchange nor leaving the exchange, so let's ignore it for now.

The focus is still on the earlier investors except for $26,000. They still haven't changed much, and there is no panic. The mood of early investors is still stable. The second is the investors in the range of $64,000 to $69,000. Whether they can support it or not is not the point. At least this is a dense accumulation area.

There is no sign of panic among investors at this position. Basically, investors in the past one or two weeks are leaving the market, so the selling in this dense area is gradually decreasing. Some friends say that $64,000 is currently a pressure, but at present, the selling pressure at this position is not large, and there is no sign of pressure. The main reason is still liquidity.

Yesterday, more than 500 billion US dollars entered the market, and today more than 600 billion US dollars entered the market. There is really nothing much to say about this liquidity. It is the weekend again. I say it every week, be careful of the sharp rise and fall caused by the low liquidity.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿

The price of BTC once exceeded $62,000, once again proving that even if the market is illiquid, sentiment is still the main factor leading the market. In the past 24 hours, the changing hands of #BTC on the chain have maintained almost the same trend as the previous trading day, without significant changes. The changing hands of earlier investors only accounted for about 12% of the total circulation.

The current main force of changing hands is still investors who have held positions in the past two days. This situation has lasted for a long time. This still shows that the current exchange of hands has nothing to do with "Dog Zhuang", and it is still emotions that drive short-term investors to buy and sell.

The current support range has also not been breached, with $64,000 to $69,000 remaining solid support at the moment. Once again, this support is the intensive chip area of ​​BTC on the chain, which means that the price will not suffer a panic-like sharp decline. If this position is destroyed, the price will not fall more than the current price every day.

The focus of Friday night is on the core PCE. The current market expectations are relatively good. If it can be achieved, it can have a stabilizing effect on investor sentiment. The next most important data is the University of Michigan's one-year inflation forecast. If both perform well, this weekend will be safe.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿
I found that 99% of the "leeks" have a very fatal bad habit. Yes, it is fatal.

When the price of the currency just starts to fall, they are reluctant to sell, and always want to wait for a rebound before selling.

So, today it rebounded, but I didn't sell it, and it fell by two points, but I still didn't sell it.

Tomorrow it rebounded and fell again, and I said that I had no chance to sell it, and it fell by 3 points, but I still didn't sell it.

The day after tomorrow it rebounded by 1 point, and I said I wouldn't sell it until it went back up.

Now it's good, it slowly fell by dozens of points, and all the money I made before was gone, and I even started to lose money.

This is definitely not the right way to trade. As long as you don't stop loss, no matter how much you made before, as long as you make a mistake once, it will all be gone.

I have studied that all the big Vs who do a good job in trading will decisively sell when the price falls, admit their mistakes immediately, and start again.

I am the same. Unless it is a super sure value investment, I dare to make up for it as it falls.

Otherwise, you must make a stop loss plan before placing each order, otherwise it will be over if you make a mistake once, which is not what a mature trader should do.

So every time I give out a coin, I will attach a stop loss point.

Trading is a lifelong thing.

If you want to survive in the market for a long time, you must change this fatal bad habit. Make a stop loss plan in advance every time you open an order, instead of fantasizing about "I will sell it when it rebounds" after the price falls.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿

When the price of BTC stops rising, the turnover will increase. In terms of on-chain behavior, the turnover of losing investors is about 12% higher than that of profitable investors, which means that the current biggest sell-off is mainly from investors who have already lost money, especially those whose cost price was around $70,000 two or three weeks ago, and they have already left the market.

The turnover of profitable investors is mainly from investors who have bought the bottom in the past two days, and does not involve profitable investors before. To put it simply, the current price changes are more due to user emotions rather than the so-called "dog dealer" smashing the market.

From the data of chip distribution, there is still no change. Although the BTC of $61,000 has increased, it is mainly from short-term investors. Once the price changes, this position may not be maintained. In the current high-concentration distribution area, $64,000 to $69,000 is still the main support position. It has been mentioned many times before that as long as this support is not broken, the decline of BTC will be relatively limited, and the rebound will be faster.

The focus of this week is on the core PCE on Friday night. If this data performs well, it will boost investor sentiment. At 22:00 in the evening, there is also the one-year inflation forecast of the University of Michigan. If it is also lower than the previous value, the market will be more stable.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

【Four core techniques for short-term trading】

First point: Don’t be greedy when the short-term peaks.

Short-term trading is trading the short-term upward trend. If the trend begins to peak at a high level, you must not harbor illusions or be overly greedy. You should follow the principles of the short-term trading system and sell in time. It is not too late to enter the market again when new opportunities arise later.

Second point: Hold on to strong coins and enter and exit quickly.

The key to short-term trading is to select strong coins. Strong coins have good liquidity. As long as the trend has not peaked, there will be a steady stream of relay funds to push its trend upward.

Third point: Grab the absolute leading coins in the hot sector, which peak slowly and gain quickly.

When a hot sector is formed, if a new wave of market conditions begins, and a new absolute leading coin appears, you can intervene. The leading coin without competitors will often rise more rapidly.

Fourth point: Stop trading when your short-term model has no money-making effect

When the market lacks hot spots, or your short-term model has no money-making effect, the best choice is to go short. Going short is to wait for a better short-term strong coin to appear. Have you learned it?

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿

Everyone must remember: whether it is doing business, finding a partner, buying a house, or speculating in coins, anything, everything, as long as there are many people involved, there will definitely be no good results in the future.

What is a takeover?

If someone buys goods for 20 yuan and sells them to you for 200 yuan, you are a takeover. If someone buys coins for 3 yuan and sells them to you for 30 yuan, you are a takeover. If someone buys a house for 3,000 yuan per square meter and sells it to you for 18,000 yuan per square meter, you are a takeover. If someone drives a second-hand car that is almost scrapped, you buy it and continue to drive it, you are a takeover. If the KTV lady has had enough fun and finds an honest man to marry, then the honest man is the takeover. To take over means that you buy it when it is about to be scrapped. To take over means that you take over when others are about to collapse. To take over means that you enter when others are eager to get rid of it as soon as possible. When others enter, you exit, and then others will take over your plate.

When others exit, you enter, and you will take over their plate.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

Is BTC going up or down since it was approved? Why did the price rise from $46,000 to a maximum of $73,000 after GBTC sold nearly 400,000 #BTC , and is still above $61,000.

Of course, some people will say that it was a late rally, but doesn't this mean that investors who "Sell The News" made at least 40% less money after BTC was approved? Given this comparison, what is the point of selling ETH now?

In layman's terms, if you go back to when BTC just passed the spot ETF, would you choose to buy BTC or sell BTC? History has been experienced once, and when it is experienced again, I think someone will make a different choice.

I also firmly believe that there will be "Sell The News" after ETH is approved, but relatively speaking, there may be fewer. Of course, I may not be right. If everything goes well, the full version of the ETH spot ETF will be approved next Wednesday Beijing time, and trading will start as early as next Wednesday night.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿

Only trade twice a year?

"Men, visit Heilan Home twice a year." This is a classic advertising slogan.

In fact, in the currency circle, only two transactions are required in a year, one is the sharp drop before the New Year, and the other is the sharp drop at the end of June. However, often during these two big drops, the most people cut their losses and leave the market.

No matter how much the currency circle will fall next, I will never choose to clear my position and leave the market at this time. On the contrary, my position will only continue to increase. Before the end of July, I will definitely increase my position to 80%, leaving only 20% of the funds that can support one year's living expenses, even if this part of the funds is exhausted in the decline.

The decline is for buying, even if there is no money for buying, you have to endure it. The more the market is sluggish, the less you should clear your position and wait and see. Only when it rises is it necessary to gradually leave the market.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿

Although the price once fell below $60,000, the chip gathering area of ​​BTC on the chain has not been destroyed. Currently, $64,000 to $69,000 is still the support area of ​​BTC on the chain. Many new friends asked, isn't it support? Why did it fall below? Why is it still called support after falling below? In fact, I have explained this question many times when it was $56,000.

The support I am talking about is not the technical support mentioned on the K-line, but from the perspective of chip distribution, a large number of investors gathered did not panic on a large scale, so we can see that there is no large-scale selling of BTC between $64,000 and $69,000, which means that the price decline is limited. After all, not most people leave the market, at least not at the moment. So it will not cause too much change in price.

If a large number of BTC in this range leave the market and destroy the support, then the price may change significantly. Maybe it will be destroyed tomorrow, but at least from the current data, it has not been destroyed yet.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

Panic. Judging from today's data, panic did occur, but it has not reached an extremely exaggerated level. Compared with the low turnover rate on weekdays, the turnover rate has increased by nearly double this time. The compensation in Mentougou has caused emotional panic under the current low liquidity and unsatisfactory macro data. The distribution of 141,686 BTC has made many investors feel that there may be a large-scale sell-off in the future, but the impact on prices and the scale of sell-offs are not all factors.

If the macro sentiment in July improves and the market continues to expect that the Federal Reserve may increase the rate cut from one to two, then these BTCs that may be sold may not have a big impact on the market. More importantly, these 141,696 BTCs are not sold at one time. If BTC itself is in an upward trend, there is indeed a chance to reduce the impact of the sell-off.

But if this week's core PCE and next week's non-farm data are not ideal, then even if only one-tenth of the Mentougou BTC is sold, it may have an impact on the market. Even the selling pressure caused by the news of Mentougou today is because the purchasing power has declined due to the unsatisfactory macro data.

So in the end, the core of the current game is still the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, which is something that the cryptocurrency market cannot avoid. The panic we see now has two forms. First, the BTC hands have increased significantly. As we have always said, the main reason for getting rid of shocks is that there is clear positive or negative information. The Mentougou incident this time is a clear negative information.

Secondly, we can see that the stock of BTC in the exchange has increased significantly, which is also proof of panic. Compared with the same period yesterday, more than 5,000 BTC have been transferred to the exchange and have not been digested. The current increase in the stock of the exchange indicates that more investors are looking for opportunities to leave. Under the current liquidity situation, the higher the stock, the greater the possibility of risk.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

If there is no BTC spot ETF, the answer to whether it is a bull market now must be no. Since 2023, BTC has risen from $16,000 to $26,000, which is attributed to the Fed's shift from interest rate hikes to tentative interest rate hikes. Subsequently, for half a year, it has been hovering between $25,000 and $30,000, which is due to the lack of further positive news in the macro market.

Until the end of the year, due to the expectation of the passage of the BTC spot ETF, it was able to achieve a rapid rise until April this year. One is the amount of funds brought by the ETF, which purchased more than 500,000 BTC in three months; the other is that it is expected that the transition from the suspension of interest rate hikes to interest rate cuts in June will be possible, so there is an expectation in the market.

However, now that the ETF craze has receded, the reason for the retreat even includes the market's lower expectations for interest rate cuts. As for the risks caused by high interest rates, as I wrote in this tweet in October 2023, when the liquidity of the market is withdrawn, we can only rely on emotions to drive funds in the market. This is not only the case in the cryptocurrency circle, but also in the US stock market. It’s just that the AI ​​in the United States is stronger than the ETF in the cryptocurrency circle, which has attracted more funds to enter the market, including Nvidia, because it has actual financial reports to disclose, so it can get more funds. But whether it is BTC ETH, it either relies on liquidity support or emotional support, but neither is feasible at the moment. One is exhausted at a certain stage, and the other will not start until next week.

The second situation is the most direct liquidity, which is also the biggest game point at the moment, that is, the continuous monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. To put it bluntly, when can high interest rates end. The main reason for the decline this time is due to the last dot plot, and the market’s expectations have dropped from two interest rate cuts to one. Therefore, the following macro data is becoming more and more important. First, it can't get any worse. The probability of not cutting interest rates in 2024 is not high, and there should be one cut anyway; second, there is a chance to increase from one to two, which also brings another possibility.

Is it a defensive rate cut or a remedy after the sheep have been cut? So talking about rate cuts without considering the US economy is nonsense. Even if the United States starts cutting interest rates in July, if a black swan event occurs and causes the risk market to collapse, then even four rate cuts will not help the stock market and currency prices rise.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

“May is poor and June is dead” every year. In the cycle theory, which months of the year are suitable for cryptocurrency trading?

“May is poor, June is dead, and July may not turn around.” I am always short in May, June, July, and August every year. So, when is the right time to enter the cryptocurrency trading market?

1. Enter the market at the end of September and leave the market at the end of November.

2. Enter the market before the Spring Festival and leave the market in April.

3. Follow the above two iron laws. Of course, the situation of individual small-cap coins being manipulated by the main force is not included.

4. The US dollar continues to appreciate against the RMB, and the RMB is still weak against the US dollar. Jewish capital intends to attract global funds into the US stock market.

5. The few individuals who can make profits by quantitative trading and using leverage in the cryptocurrency circle are only a very small number of people who select coins and operate in waves.

6. For most "leeks", they are all suffering in pain. If there is a rebound (profit reaches 1 times, stop in time), then consider choosing other targets for band operation and make a quick decision. This is just my personal feeling.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

As far as the current data is concerned, it was mentioned yesterday that the liquidity of #BTC on the chain has increased, and today this data has become a little larger. However, what is slightly different today is that there has been a large-scale turnover at both the $15,500 and $26,500 prices, especially at the $26,500 position, where nearly 45,000 BTC have been turned over. I compared the past data and found that this situation occurs every Saturday at irregular intervals, but it has almost never happened at other times.

But what can be confirmed is that this part of BTC has not been transferred to the exchange, because in the past 24 hours, the total BTC transferred to the exchange is less than 40,000, and in fact, the data of 20,000 BTC transferred to the exchange has not been reached. It is not ruled out that it is over-the-counter (OTC) or the exchange is sorting out the wallet.

If these two parts are removed, the rest of the situation will be normal, and it will also show a low turnover rate and circulation. Of course, the current main turnover is still the investors who have held positions in the past two weeks, which has never changed. Relatively speaking, there is still no obvious change in more early investors.

From the support data on the BTC chain, the support situation of $64,000 to $69,000 remains unchanged. This position is also what we have been paying attention to. We have said many times that as long as this structure is not destroyed, the price can still be relatively stable. If there is no unexpected situation over the weekend, the biggest game point next week will be the core PCE on Friday. Before that, if there is no new clear positive or negative data, maintaining volatility should still be the greatest possibility.

From the stock data of the exchange, the result caused by low liquidity over the weekend is normal. The stock of BTC on the exchange has not changed much. Compared with 24 hours ago, the stock has dropped by more than 1,000 BTC. At present, there are still 11,000 BTC away from the lowest stock value in nearly six years. If these chips are not consumed, there is always a certain risk. The main consumption is expected to be next week.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

How to start learning trading?

It requires two-pronged approach, one is actual combat, the other is reading, making friends and becoming a teacher. There is no other way, actual combat is essential, just like learning to swim, at least you have to go into the water, it is better to dive into the pool and choke on a few mouthfuls of water than to practice various movements by the swimming pool. When you first start to practice, do not invest too much money, just try a small amount, don't dream of getting huge returns in one fell swoop, otherwise you will pay the price sooner or later. After the actual combat, you should summarize and record your daily thoughts. At the beginning, the notebooks for recording your experience were piled up higher than a person. Nowadays, mobile networks are convenient and there is no need to write by hand, but in fact, you still need to constantly realize every day. Trading is endless and it is a lifelong thing!

This is the result of the combined effect of internal and external factors! Actual combat is an internal factor, and reading, making friends and becoming a teacher are external factors. The two promote your progress. Reading is necessary, it is a process of understanding reason, which is actually the law in the West. If you don't understand the reason, you will end up with a bloody head if you act blindly based on your own imagination. Good teachers and friends are also very important. Communicating with others can generate insights. Sometimes the speaker is unintentional, but the listener is intentional. Many words spoken by others may solve your long-term confusion. If there is a good teacher who can teach you hand in hand, it will be better, but it is difficult to find a good teacher, and this all requires opportunity.

In general, if you really want to succeed and really want to achieve your goals, there is no other way, only these two ways, just go ahead and move forward. After ten years, look back and you will be surprised to find that you have come so far.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

In the past 24 hours, the turnover of BTC on the chain has shown an increasing trend. Although a large number of exit operations were mainly triggered by investors in the past week, it can be detected that the earlier losing investors have increased their selling efforts. It is not ruled out that the sluggish market has caused panic among some losing investors. However, correspondingly, the earlier profitable investors are still silent. The current situation has not entered a state of full panic, and the selling pressure transferred to the exchange has not shown any signs of a significant increase.

Further data still needs to be observed, but it can be found that more investors are not anxious about the price drop. Of course, profitable investors have a higher degree of tolerance, which is inevitable. Judging from the current trend, there will be data that can affect the market until next Friday, namely the US core PCE in May. Before that, the market confidence may still be insufficient.

In particular, there is no obvious sign of a decrease in the inventory of the exchange. Although Wednesday is a holiday and it is normal for the purchasing power to be low, on Thursday, the inventory of the exchange not only did not decrease, but increased. So far, the stock of BTC in the exchange has only decreased by about 1,000 pieces, and the stock value is still more than 13,000 BTC from the lowest in nearly six years last Thursday. I have always emphasized that the current liquidity is too poor. If these more than 10,000 BTC are not digested one day, it may affect the price trend.

Although the data is not optimistic, the support of BTC at this price has not changed, and the support of $64,000 to $69,000 has not been broken. Some friends asked, hasn't it fallen below $64,000 now, why do you still say that support exists? Because the support I am talking about is not the support in terms of price, but the support of the accumulation of chips. As long as these investors do not panic and leave, even if the price falls below, there will be a rebound.

The current situation is very similar to the second and third quarters of last year. The price of BTC has been hovering around $26,000. To be honest, if it were not for the passage of BTC F, the current price of BTC might still be around $30,000. Spot ETFs have increased their net holdings by more than 900,000 BTC in the past five months, absorbing a large amount of circulating chips, and there has been no sign of large-scale exits so far.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿＃CHZ

《Thoughts on #BTC in the bull market》
Use 60% of the position as the bottom position and hold the currency unchanged. The remaining 40% of the position is used to buy at a low point every day. Once there is a 2% price difference, immediately sell the 40% position corresponding to the bottom position. Repeat the operation in this way. If 50,000 is a full position, set a profit of 300 yuan per day as the goal. Do not underestimate this 300 yuan, which may be a full-time salary for many people in a day. Generally speaking, it is difficult for ordinary retail investors not to lose money. If you still don’t believe it, it’s because you still have fantasies. Think about a model, this model is very simple, anchoring a few or even one strong currency that you are very familiar with, and conducting medium and long-term operations. With continuous compound interest, you can create the possibility of profit on the basis of ensuring no loss.

#BTC #ETH

#内容挖矿

Pulling down ALT is undoubtedly the most stupid move, after all, #BTC and #ETH are both in a downward trend.

In fact, in the field of cryptocurrency, leverage is everywhere, some on the chain, and some on the exchange. Many ALT holders are keen to pledge their chips and then exchange them for more mainstream assets such as BTC and ETH. However, this kind of pledge has a liquidation weight, and the representative $CRV liquidation last week is such a case. A large amount of CRV was pledged on the chain and exchanged for $ETH. This situation is reasonable, but there are still many investors who use the borrowed ETH to pledge and borrow again, which forms spot leverage.

In the former case, only fluctuations in the CRV price will trigger the liquidation of CRV; but in the latter case, as long as the price of ETH falls, the liquidation of ETH will lead to a chain of liquidations of CRV, and this is exactly the situation we are facing now. Of course, the price drop made it difficult for many investors to hold on and left the market, which is also one of the reasons. This also confirms the saying: when the decline occurs, no token sold is innocent.

However, compared with the current predicament of ALT, BTC and ETH are still relatively strong. Although there are declines, their declines are only about 2%. This has a lot to do with the fact that earlier investors have not left the market on a large scale. It can be clearly seen from the data that many friends are worried about whether the dog dealer is smashing the market, but in fact, the selling in the last 24 hours is more from investors who lost money. If they are dog dealers, such dog dealers may as well come more.

#BTC #ETH