#内容挖矿＃CHZ

If there is no BTC spot ETF, the answer to whether it is a bull market now must be no. Since 2023, BTC has risen from $16,000 to $26,000, which is attributed to the Fed's shift from interest rate hikes to tentative interest rate hikes. Subsequently, for half a year, it has been hovering between $25,000 and $30,000, which is due to the lack of further positive news in the macro market.

Until the end of the year, due to the expectation of the passage of the BTC spot ETF, it was able to achieve a rapid rise until April this year. One is the amount of funds brought by the ETF, which purchased more than 500,000 BTC in three months; the other is that it is expected that the transition from the suspension of interest rate hikes to interest rate cuts in June will be possible, so there is an expectation in the market.

However, now that the ETF craze has receded, the reason for the retreat even includes the market's lower expectations for interest rate cuts. As for the risks caused by high interest rates, as I wrote in this tweet in October 2023, when the liquidity of the market is withdrawn, we can only rely on emotions to drive funds in the market. This is not only the case in the cryptocurrency circle, but also in the US stock market. It’s just that the AI ​​in the United States is stronger than the ETF in the cryptocurrency circle, which has attracted more funds to enter the market, including Nvidia, because it has actual financial reports to disclose, so it can get more funds. But whether it is BTC ETH, it either relies on liquidity support or emotional support, but neither is feasible at the moment. One is exhausted at a certain stage, and the other will not start until next week.

The second situation is the most direct liquidity, which is also the biggest game point at the moment, that is, the continuous monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. To put it bluntly, when can high interest rates end. The main reason for the decline this time is due to the last dot plot, and the market’s expectations have dropped from two interest rate cuts to one. Therefore, the following macro data is becoming more and more important. First, it can't get any worse. The probability of not cutting interest rates in 2024 is not high, and there should be one cut anyway; second, there is a chance to increase from one to two, which also brings another possibility.

Is it a defensive rate cut or a remedy after the sheep have been cut? So talking about rate cuts without considering the US economy is nonsense. Even if the United States starts cutting interest rates in July, if a black swan event occurs and causes the risk market to collapse, then even four rate cuts will not help the stock market and currency prices rise.

#BTC #ETH