#内容挖矿＃CHZ

Panic. Judging from today's data, panic did occur, but it has not reached an extremely exaggerated level. Compared with the low turnover rate on weekdays, the turnover rate has increased by nearly double this time. The compensation in Mentougou has caused emotional panic under the current low liquidity and unsatisfactory macro data. The distribution of 141,686 BTC has made many investors feel that there may be a large-scale sell-off in the future, but the impact on prices and the scale of sell-offs are not all factors.

If the macro sentiment in July improves and the market continues to expect that the Federal Reserve may increase the rate cut from one to two, then these BTCs that may be sold may not have a big impact on the market. More importantly, these 141,696 BTCs are not sold at one time. If BTC itself is in an upward trend, there is indeed a chance to reduce the impact of the sell-off.

But if this week's core PCE and next week's non-farm data are not ideal, then even if only one-tenth of the Mentougou BTC is sold, it may have an impact on the market. Even the selling pressure caused by the news of Mentougou today is because the purchasing power has declined due to the unsatisfactory macro data.

So in the end, the core of the current game is still the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, which is something that the cryptocurrency market cannot avoid. The panic we see now has two forms. First, the BTC hands have increased significantly. As we have always said, the main reason for getting rid of shocks is that there is clear positive or negative information. The Mentougou incident this time is a clear negative information.

Secondly, we can see that the stock of BTC in the exchange has increased significantly, which is also proof of panic. Compared with the same period yesterday, more than 5,000 BTC have been transferred to the exchange and have not been digested. The current increase in the stock of the exchange indicates that more investors are looking for opportunities to leave. Under the current liquidity situation, the higher the stock, the greater the possibility of risk.

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