#美国大选后涨或跌？

View on Bitcoin Market During Election Phase——

In previous articles, including over the weekend, I mentioned a key point that the market during the election phase will revolve around 68800. Both sides can choose operations based on this standard point. On Monday, Bitcoin bounced around 68800, showing numerous wounds, with a clear intention that the market is about to start, not providing a comfortable position for operations.

My article over the weekend also focused on this point, advising everyone to short at 68800, and to continue shorting if it breaks above 69200 and then falls back.

Combining the weekend's market rebound from the support level of 67500 after a peak-to-bottom conversion, then on Monday, breaking through and oscillating around 68800 without accelerating, and then accelerating through 67500 again in the early hours of Tuesday before rebounding, currently all short-term support and resistance levels have become ineffective, and the market has entered an uncontrolled phase. The purpose of this loss of control is also to prevent retail investors from participating.

Since we understand that the market's intention is to prevent retail investors from participating, today we need to find which positions can still allow retail investors to operate, and these positions will definitely be broken.

Currently, the visible position is the resistance of the downtrend line at 69200, which is the last point to short in the short term.

Subsequent market prediction:

If the market continues to decline, then tonight until tomorrow, Bitcoin will need to break upwards through 69200, triggering stop-loss orders for short positions, but it will not reach 71600. Because 71600 is a signal point for the previous reversal downtrend. If it can go up to this level, the area of 71800-72100 is the top range, and many short positions will still enter, directly causing losses.

So now the thinking is clear: it will break through 69200 but will not touch 71600. We can choose to operate in the middle positions.

Short at 70500-70800, with a stop-loss at 71600. Once it goes above 71800, no more shorting should be done.

If the market does not provide the 70500-70800 position to enter short, then after breaking upwards through 69200, we will wait for it to drop back to 69200-68800 before entering short.

Finally, a side note: don't think about bottoming out Ethereum; the bottom for Ethereum has been too obvious. You are still fantasizing about Ethereum's rebound, giving the probability of a rebound, and the hope of bottoming out, but the result can only be that it buries those who try to bottom out.

Views on Bitcoin Market During the Election Phase——

In previous articles, including over the weekend, I mentioned a key point: during the election phase, the market will focus on 68800, a level that both bulls and bears can use to make trading decisions. On Monday, Bitcoin bounced around 68800, creating a lot of volatility, with a clear intention to start the market, not allowing for comfortable trading positions.

My weekend article also focused on this point, advising everyone to short at 68800, and to continue shorting if it breaks above 69200 and then drops back.

Combined with the weekend market, which rebounded from the support level of 67500, and then Monday saw 68800 being pierced and fluctuating without acceleration, Tuesday early morning saw it accelerate through 67500 before rebounding. Currently, all short-term support and resistance levels have failed, and the market has entered a stage of loss of control. The purpose of this loss of control is also to prevent retail investors from participating.

Since we understand that the market's intention is to exclude retail investors, today we need to find out which levels still allow retail investors to trade, and those levels will definitely be broken.

The current visible level is the downward trendline resistance at 69200; this is the last point for shorting in the short term.

Future market predictions:

If the market is going to decline unilaterally, then tonight until tomorrow, Bitcoin needs to break above 69200, triggering stop-losses for short positions, but it won't reach 71600. This is because 71600 was a reversal point for the previous drop, and if it can go up to this level, the range above 71800-72100 is the upper limit, where a lot of short positions will enter, resulting in them getting trapped.

So now the thought process is clear: it will break 69200 but won't touch 71600. We can choose to operate at the intermediate levels.

Short at 70500-70800, with a stop-loss at 71600. Once it goes above 71800, no more shorting allowed.

If the market doesn't give the opportunity to short at 70500-70800, then after breaking above 69200, we will wait for it to drop back to 69200-68800 to short.

Lastly, a quick note: don't think about bottom-fishing Ethereum; the bottom for Ethereum is too obvious. You might still be fantasizing about Ethereum catching up, giving a probability for a rebound, and hope for bottom-fishing, but the result will only trap those who try to catch the bottom.

Three things, everyone is connected, the situation is really clear.

Last Wednesday, Harris won the swing state, surpassing Trump in winning probability, and the US stock market began to continue its decline.

Last Friday, the non-farm data changed from its usual fraudulent style, with only 12,000 jobs created.

On Monday, the White House passed an emergency bill allowing federal troops to control riots without government authorization as necessary.

From the movements in the US stock market, Trump's faction has sensed the risk of losing and wants to escape.

From the non-farm data, the previous fraud was to win votes at all costs, winning for themselves and then cleaning up the mess, leaving the mess for Trump if they lost. Logically speaking, unless the Democrats already believe they have a sure win, why would they self-destruct by releasing such low employment data during this sensitive election phase? Therefore, from the perspective of non-farm data, the American bureaucratic system also recognizes that Harris is about to take office, and now needs to start cleaning up the mess from the previously falsified data.

From Monday's emergency bill, the Democrats also foresee that after the election, Trump might cause trouble, after all, there is a precedent (the last election loss led to the rednecks surrounding Capitol Hill).

Conclusion: Harris takes office, the crypto circle collapses, the sky falls and the earth shatters.

I have a plan to help Emperor Trump. Now quickly send people to various swing states to imitate the sound of foxes, so that America will be prosperous and Trump will be king. By the way, throw a one-eyed stone man into the Mississippi River and carve on it: Don't say the stone man has only one eye, stir up the Mississippi River and the world will rebel. If you lose the election, you can sit in Houston and make a call, "Are there any kings, princes, generals or ministers of different races?" Millions of rednecks in Texas will purge the emperor's side. If you win, you can enter the White House and ascend the throne again. If you lose, you can split Texas and still be like Emperor Zhaolie.

The US stock market began to fall when Harris's winning rate surpassed that of the Democratic Party. Does it mean that the Democratic Party feels that it has already won the election? After all, the prosperity of the US stock market was maintained for votes. Now, only when they are sure of winning, they don't need to continue to maintain the prosperity of the US stock market (no matter who comes to power, the problems of the US dollar and US debt need to be filled. If the US stock market still maintains a bull market, this bubble will become the third mine, so whoever comes to power needs to take the initiative to pierce it). From another perspective, the consortium capital behind both sides is facing liquidation this round. Has the consortium of the Trump faction also sensed the possibility of defeat and started to run away in advance?

     Secondly, judging from the illegal data, which has changed the previous falsification style, the US bureaucracy seems to be completely under the command of the Democratic Party. The previous falsification was needed to maintain a decent prosperity and prevent the US stock market from collapsing. Now that the real data has been released, does it mean that the government system has also determined that the Democratic Party will win again, and it can start to correct the previous outrageous data in advance? After all, the lies that we thought were very magical before are essentially for votes. From the perspective of human nature, I can do everything before the election is settled. If I lose, Trump will clean up the mess left behind. What if I win? I will clean up the mess I made myself.

    After talking about the two points, let's talk about the current market. After breaking through 68,800, the daily head and shoulders top officially entered the process of building a right shoulder box oscillation, with a top of 68,800 and a bottom of 65,000. It is in line with what the hunter said before that before the election is announced, the market needs to be pulled out of a range of about 3,000 points to facilitate control and stir up emotions.

68800 breaks during the weekend when market trading is light, who is in a hurry? What are they in a hurry about? If it's a rise, Friday could have fully utilized the favorable non-farm data to pull it directly to 61800-62000 under pressure, enticing short positions in, and then accelerating upward to break through, initiating a bull market.

The only reasonable explanation is that the subsequent market trend is downward; only in this way can the logic of this weekend's decline make sense. Breaking below 68800 can initiate a right shoulder box fluctuation of a head and shoulders pattern, allowing for a fluctuation range of 3000 points to facilitate the main control of the market. At the same time, the fundamental reason for the market's bullishness is betting on Trump coming to power, with the election results announced on November 5th. Even if Trump comes to power, the rise can still be controlled within this range; if Harris comes to power, there will be a direct waterfall decline, or a slow drop, both of which can technically rationalize this market trend.

Over the weekend evening, everyone does not need to pay attention to the pressure situation at 68800; whether it breaks or not is not important. If it declines, even if it spikes up, it won't matter much, at most it will just force a technical short stop-loss. If the subsequent judgment of the hunters is wrong, and the market is not declining but rising, then a unilateral upward move will not give back a pullback.

Therefore, the position that everyone can currently choose is to short near 68800, with a stop-loss if it breaks 69300. If the subsequent market trend is a unilateral rise, then the hunter's judgment is wrong. However, if the spike triggers the stop-loss and the market falls back within the 68800-69200 range, continuing to short again indicates that the market is a false break spike, and the subsequent trend is still a unilateral decline, which will drop to the 66000-65000 range before the election announcement. This position can choose to reduce holdings to buffer against the election's volatility.

Do not think that after Bitcoin takes off, it will naturally trigger an altcoin season. The world does not work that way. Bitcoin and altcoins are completely different species, and there is no necessary connection between them. The essence of craving an altcoin season is due to being trapped by altcoins and wanting to break free, or simply not having Bitcoin at all and wanting to gamble on the explosion of an altcoin season. The old method of seeking a sword by carving a boat is no longer effective, as the underlying logic and ecological environment have changed.

From a macro perspective, large funds will not invest in altcoins, because altcoins cannot deeply accommodate large amounts of capital. Large funds need a sufficiently deep reservoir that allows for free entry and exit with good returns. Just look at how many altcoins have increased more than Bitcoin in this wave?

Before the evening non-farm data is released, if the market remains unchanged and continues to oscillate around the support of 68800, then after the data is released, even if it breaks below 68800, do not chase the short. Wait for a rebound. If the decline continues tonight, it won't be comfortable for those chasing shorts.

      You can wait for a rebound at 70200-70500 before going short, with a stop loss at 71000. The logic for this short entry is that the rebound resistance point on the hourly chart is clearly at 69700. If the market remains unchanged in the afternoon and before the non-farm data is released, everyone hopes to place short orders at this position. If the main force wants to force these short positions to stop loss, the market must be pulled to the stop loss level (at least 500 points lower), thus concluding that tonight's Bitcoin market must rise above 70200. The profit target is the lower range of 66500-66000. Personally, I suggest reducing positions to withstand a wave of volatility from the elections, to capture the peak. If you do not want to endure this volatility, then take profit at 66500.

The US stock market and the dollar have been strong companions, maintaining high positions, mainly due to the false data from the Federal Reserve and the US Department of Labor over the past six months. The reason for this is simple: the high positions of the US stock market are aimed at securing votes for the upcoming elections, while the dollar's high position is to avoid capital outflows caused by interest rate cuts.

Large holders selling spot represents the main group in the crypto world being pessimistic about the future of the crypto market. The continuous inflow of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs is more influenced by the rise in US stocks rather than solely by the crypto market.

Will the dollar collapse? I believe that after the election, the dollar will not collapse either. As the world enters a phase of interest rate cuts and monetary easing, as long as the Federal Reserve does not maintain a 50 basis point cut every time, the dollar will remain strong. Furthermore, if Trump comes to power, he will certainly begin to shed burdens (during his last presidential term, he asked Japan and South Korea to pay for troop costs, withdrew troops from Afghanistan, eased relations with Russia, reduced intervention in the Middle East, withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement, and attempted to overturn Obamacare, even wanting to exit NATO). In simple terms, Trump's administration is about America First, reducing the costs of American hegemony, and revitalizing the domestic economy.

Will the US stock market crash? I cannot assert that the US stock market will collapse; this issue is more complex and involves more factors. I can only say one thing: American society is currently severely divided, and capital groups are also polarized. Emerging capital supports Trump, while traditional capital still aligns with the Democratic Party. Regardless of which side comes to power, a reckoning is inevitable, which means a massive capital flight is likely, and the US stock market will certainly enter a phase of decline.

The strength of the dollar is a weight suppressing the bull market. The decline of the US stock market will not provide upward momentum for the bull market. Therefore, although hunters have missed out on the bull market, I also see that this bull market may end prematurely. We are now in the final phase of the bull market, and even if I enter, I do not know how much profit can still be made. However, the risks are gradually increasing as the election approaches. Another obvious reason is that Bitcoin is nearing new highs, while Ethereum is still in a low range, which is not at all a sign of a flourishing bull market.

The rise of the pin at 65200, I can understand that there is strong rebound here, after all, the top-bottom conversion support at 64800. However, this wave has gone a bit overboard, I mentioned yesterday that the limit is 67500, so today the short at 67500 needs to be watched, breaking below 67000 is safe, and going above 68100 means it's time to exit.

It is known that the bullish market sees 66500 as a defensive support point for longs.
It is known that the technical analysts see 66500 as a signal to short once it breaks.
The evening's market can be easily speculated; if the market starts to accelerate downward before midnight, the first wave will definitely break below 66500. Note that breaking below 66500 will not accelerate but will instead fake break, spike, and then quickly rebound back up, with the expectation reaching around 67000.
This action can both sweep away the stop losses of technical analysts and conservative retail traders who have long positions, and also trick technical analysts into chasing shorts, subsequently sweeping the stop losses of those short positions.
For retail traders who are overly optimistic about their long positions, the false break of 66500 is just a false alarm, and the spike rebound will lead them to continue holding their long positions. The market may then continue to slowly drop towards 66500, oscillating around 66500 repeatedly, before directly starting to accelerate downward in the early morning phase, with the first wave directly hitting the 64800-64500 range, with an extreme case hitting 63500-63200 and then quickly rebounding to oscillate around 65000.
If after midnight the market is still above 66500, then in the later half of the night, there will be a direct wave breaking through, providing no opportunity to chase shorts and also no opportunity for long positions to exit (unless with stop losses). The market will then directly consolidate at 63500, followed by a rebound to around 65000 before adjusting downward.
The inference leads to a rather audacious operation for those who are waiting. They can wait for the evening to see a false break of 66500, then short in the area of 67000-67500 with a stop loss at 68000, boarding the second wave of ladder-like downward movements at the starting point, and not taking profits, including at 63500, but instead waiting for further notification to add positions when I find the second strong rebound point.

Brothers, don't think too much. The more you think, the more pressure you have. I've said it many times: do not base your market judgments on your own positions, otherwise your understanding will definitely be biased. Put aside your high-position short positions, and think rationally: hasn't the market accumulated a lot of bullish sentiment since last week, especially with the upcoming elections and interest rate cuts? This atmosphere is becoming increasingly strong. If the bullish sentiment that has been hard to accumulate were to directly break below 66500 yesterday, wouldn't you see that the daily chart shows a standard top reversal pattern, including the strong support level at the 66500 cycle top and bottom conversion? If it breaks through without any resistance, who would still look for a bull market?
Therefore, understanding the strong fluctuations in the market at 66500, understanding the market, reading the market, you will find that a direct break below 66500 is actually bad news because it might force people to exit, potentially starting a bull market afterwards. Only by continuously attracting people at this level is it a strategy to trap the bulls.

The pin rebound at the 66500 support-resistance conversion point is completely reasonable at this position.

The reasonableness lies in the technical perspective of a strong rebound at the support-resistance conversion point, which aligns with technical logic. If it directly breaks down and continues to fall, the accumulated bullish sentiment will be completely wiped out.

The rationality needs to be interpreted: although the current decline meets the expectations of the hunters, including that my trend short positions have started to make profits, my focus is on the conflict with the route I originally designed. According to what I mentioned earlier about oscillating box accumulation and distribution, this oscillation cycle should last 7-15 days, followed by a significant drop.

However, the reality is that when the preliminary oscillation range took shape last week, this week it directly broke through the oscillation both up and down, and then the decline began.

The hunter's thought: This decline is unreasonable, but Hegel once said that existence is rational. The reasoning I find now is that institutions might have also realized that the cost of intervening in the market to control it is too high, and this control has allowed large accounts to come in and grab chips, which seems a bit like making clothes for others. Therefore, this accumulation strategy of directly breaking through would not work. Starting to decline early should lead to another route, a stepwise downward oscillation, making rebounds at each previous support point, such as 66500, 64800, 63200, 62500, 61700, in batches, then retesting to trap long positions before falling through again.

As for today, I will not consider operating long positions because either it won't provide support at 66500 for direct upward movement, or it will pause at 66500 before breaking down again. The short position can only be picked up around 68500; to be honest, I don't even want to take a short there in the short term, as it seems unnecessary. For those wanting to short, they can wait for the next wave of decline and rebound at 63200 to short again around 65000, which would fully verify the hunter's judgment on the main force's actions, making it pressure-free to establish short positions.

About the Views on Whether Bitcoin Will Surge Significantly During the Election——

This speculation is almost explosive, especially considering that Trump's approval rating is currently 37% and far ahead of Harris. However, times have changed, and our expectations for Trump's election being beneficial for the cryptocurrency market actually stem from his surprising victory over Hillary in 2018, when Bitcoin temporarily doubled in value within a day.

Rationally examining the conditions then and now, Trump's election was initially filled with drama, with Fox News having already printed news articles about Hillary's victory, while the current environment sees Trump leading significantly, lacking dramatic conflict. Furthermore, the scale of the cryptocurrency market then compared to now is vastly different, and the participating groups are more complex and diverse. Therefore, even if Trump were to win, I believe the impact on the cryptocurrency market would be minimal. Conversely, if Harris were to unexpectedly take office, the dramatic conflict would not lead to a rise but rather a downfall.

As a side note, the current U.S. election is completely a joke, with Musk openly spending money to buy votes, unabashedly selling positions of power. This is reminiscent of the late Han dynasty where the two emperors were manipulated by powerful courtiers, leading to a struggle for dominance; the sale of positions during the late Qing dynasty initiated the Xinhai revolution, and even into the Beiyang period, where electoral bribery led to conflicts among warlords. Chinese history is essentially a textbook, while America is merely a repetition of another historical lesson in the long river of history.

Five Misconceptions of Ordinary Retail Investors

5. Seeking a Sense of Security in Groups.

     The essence of human nature is to seek profit and avoid harm. Since the days of cave dwellers, humans have been accustomed to tribal groups because individual strength cannot withstand predators, and it’s the same today. Institutional investors are the modern-day predators. Therefore, there is a tendency to favor group living. However, the most peculiar aspect of the cryptocurrency space is that whether you seek a community or a group, the trading skills of most individuals are uneven. As a result, the space is filled with various emotional and subjective statements every day. These comments not only fail to provide positive feedback but also deepen your fears.

    Hunter's Personal Opinion: High-quality groups often have various invisible barriers that prevent ordinary novice investors from entering. If you want to join a high-quality circle, you must first enhance your own understanding; otherwise, you won’t have the right to engage in equal dialogue. This world is very realistic, and the cryptocurrency space is even more so. It is not determined by the size of funds but by understanding. Capable individuals inherently possess pride; why should they waste time explaining to naive and clueless individuals? If you are currently losing money, do not think about recovering your losses first; focus on improving your trading skills.

Five Misunderstandings of Ordinary Retail Investors

5. Seeking a Sense of Security in Groups.

The essence of human nature is to seek benefits and avoid harm. Since the days of cave dwellers, humans have been accustomed to tribal groups, as individual strength cannot fend off wolves and leopards. This is true today as well; institutional forces are the modern-day wolves and leopards. Thus, there is a tendency to seek community. However, the most unique aspect of the cryptocurrency market is that the communities or groups you seek often have members with varying levels of trading skills. This leads to an abundance of emotional and subjective statements daily, which not only do not provide positive feedback but also deepen your fears.

Personal Opinion of the Hunter: High-quality groups will have various invisible barriers that prevent ordinary novice retail investors from joining. If you want to enter a high-quality circle, you must first improve your own understanding; otherwise, you do not have the right to engage in equal dialogue. This world is very realistic, and the cryptocurrency market is even more so. It is not determined by the size of funds but by the level of understanding. Capable individuals possess a natural pride. Why should they bother with naive individuals? If you are currently losing money, do not think about recovering your investment first; instead, focus on improving your trading skills.