Intraday short-term: long around 68000, with a stop loss of 200-300 points. If it does not accelerate upward within two hours, close the long order without losing money. If it goes up, take profit in the 69000-69500 ​​area.

   Long-term: Either wait for it to fall back to 69000 after the surge, or wait for it to fall sideways and break through 68000.

   Currently, Hunter's own customers are concentrated in the trend short orders of 68500-68000. I emphasize again that I am not writing this article to please anyone, but to use it as my own trading diary.

   During the decline, please remember two strong rebound points.   The first is a strong rebound at 63500-63200, around 65000. The second is a strong rebound at 58000, around 60000. Note that these two strong rebounds are just adjustments during the decline, which do not change the downward trend. The ultimate goal is still 53,000-50,000, and the ultimate is to fall below 48,000. Only below 48,000 will I enter the bottom-fishing argumentation stage. Why am I so optimistic about this wave of decline, or why hunters do not consider that now is the beginning of a bull market, I have said it too many times before, whether it is the US stock market, the election, interest rate cuts, Sino-US capital game, geopolitical factors, ETFs, BlackRock, Grayscale, bull-bear cycles, institutions, main players, retail investors, I have interpreted and perfected them, and the argumentation has completed the closed loop. If I don't execute it, is it fun to argue?

Looking at today's four-hour chart, it is obvious that the top of the box oscillation formed previously, 68,000, has become the support position for the current retracement. Reasonable long positions, irresistible long positions.

      Through this point, it is easy to infer that the market will fall to 68,000 tonight.

     The key is to see whether 68,000 is sideways or rebounds immediately.

     If it is sideways at 68,000, the waterfall decline is about to begin.

     If it rebounds immediately at 68,000, it will be the last disgusting air force, and then rush to the previous high (it doesn't matter whether it breaks the previous high or not) and then reverse and fall without warning.

Conclusion: Wait, the gods are fighting. If you are shorting at 68,000, you have two options. If you can't bear the pressure of repeated fluctuations in this range, you can run when it falls to around 66,500. It doesn't matter if you are more or less. If you can bear this kind of pressure atmosphere, you can treat it as a top catcher, all the way to 53,000-50,000. When the chips are collected, the waterfall is coming in an instant. Maybe you want to ask the hunter, what if you are wrong, I will lose if I am wrong, if you don't believe it, you just can't bear this kind of atmosphere pressure, you can treat it as a short-term trade, and I have also given a sure profit stop position. Don't ask me if I will leave or not, I only say one thing, I can die, but I will die on the short side. Only after the interest rate cut in November, the market can stand above 69,000 and break through 73,800 again, I will admit my mistake and change my direction and thinking.

From the three factors just mentioned by the hunter, it can be concluded that the market will fluctuate in the high range, the fluctuation will accelerate, the range will never be broken, the technical indicators will be temporarily invalid, and the manual intervention will be obvious. Looking back at the market from Monday to now, whether it is consistent, whether it is a pull-up and delivery, whether it is a high-range oscillation after the pull-up, whether it maintains a balance, and whether the long and short fluctuations are intensified.

       So the subsequent market is to maintain this range of fluctuations, about 66,000-68,000. A too large range is not good. Retail investors cannot trade at high frequencies, and they cannot help the main institutions collect chips. The range compression range is small, the number of high-frequency transactions is high, and the chip turnover rate becomes faster. Who will be replaced? Need to say? It just speeds up the speed of collecting chips.

      What is this wave of pull-up and delivery? Of course, the bottom long orders are issued when it is pulled to a high position. Don’t look at it from the perspective of retail investors. What is issued is the bottom contract long orders and spot.

After the shipment, it is to absorb chips. What chips are absorbed? Of course, it is short orders. If it is to absorb long chips, I have only heard of taking long orders at low positions, and I have never seen long chips absorbed at high positions.

      The top of the triangular oscillation of the bull-bear cycle is 69,000. However, as time goes by (the oscillation cycle formed by 7-15 days of shipment and accumulation), the top keeps moving down. After 7-15 days, the top becomes about 68,000. Then the top will repeatedly insert needles, which puts extreme pressure, including this oscillation cycle, which also puts pressure on whales, because the longer the short position is held, the higher the cost of the funding rate. Even if it falls later, the profit will be suppressed.

Now let me talk about three key points about the trend market:

        The big triangle structure of the bull-bear cycle has reached the top, but the specific point has not reached the peak value of 69,000. Speculative top-catching shorts cannot be done (69,000 top-catching shorts, breaking 69,000 to go)

        Large whales only do two or three trends a year, and have entered the short market since 68,000 (if you want to criticize me for saying this, back off, your little tricks can't touch this level)

        Whether it is shipping or accumulating funds, these institutions such as Grayscale and BlackRock need to force the market to fluctuate within a range to facilitate shipping or accumulating funds. (For the principle of shipping and accumulating funds, go to the hunter article yourself, the principle has been explained many times)