The countdown to the election has begun, the monthly line has also closed, and the non-farm payrolls are about to be released tonight. In a word, it’s a time of many events, so it’s better to do less and observe more.

I think the plunge early yesterday further validated my hypothesis that the elections are not good for the crypto world. Whether it’s Harris or Trump, the US stock market can’t withstand the turmoil. Currently, from the public information, Bitcoin's plunge yesterday was due to Harris's victory probability surpassing Trump. Mainstream media across the US, including Fox News under the Republican Party, have collectively turned to favor Harris. I must say that Musk spending money to buy votes cannot compare to using underhanded tactics.

Insight 1:

From a deeper perspective, the reversal of victory probability leading to the decline in the crypto market is just a surface phenomenon. This election is a life-or-death struggle. The American financial elites are polarizing, and both sides are going all out for their respective candidates. For the Democrats, coming to power can protect the Lolita Island list, allowing Gates and his old money to continue their merry ways. For Republicans, coming to power may lead to a reckoning with domestic elites and dismantling the military-industrial complex. Whether it’s shootings or arson, regardless of who is behind it, we can clearly see that the struggle has no limits; both sides are waiting to take power to settle scores with the other.

Since it’s a reckoning, regardless of who comes to power, hostile capital means fleeing. For example, if Trump comes to power, Zuckerberg has to flee; if Harris comes to power, Musk has to flee. The most amusing part is that regardless of who runs, the best option for both is to run to China. For the US stock market, decline is the inevitable result; for the crypto world, with capital flowing out of the stock market, how can a bull market start? If you think my reasoning is merely my opinion, I’ll bring up a person as a reference: Warren Buffett. Historically, Buffett has emptied the stock market three times, and after each cash-out, the US entered a great depression. Now that Buffett is repeating his past operations, you may not trust my foresight, but what is the reason behind Buffett’s actions?

Insight 2:

After the Bitcoin plunge early yesterday, there was an abnormal phenomenon: the total liquidation across the network was less than 100 million, which is a stark contrast to the past, where it often started at 1 billion. Currently, despite the high price, the trading volume is very low. From this, we can see that people are more in a spectator mindset, while actual trading is not active, and the participation of retail investors is very low. The reason is simple: the players in the market have gone through a complete bull-bear cycle, and there are no new entrants. Most are very calm. From the actual volatility rhythm, the crypto market is also highly controlled, with the Asian and European sessions being largely stagnant, with volatility concentrated around the opening of Nasdaq. Currently, the situation in the crypto world resembles a struggle for pricing power, primarily revolving around exchanges and capital institutions. When retail sentiment no longer affects the crypto market, it naturally feels quiet.

However, from the perspective of institutions and exchanges, it’s incredibly stimulating. The price seems unchanged, but the inventory of exchanges is being depleted, and the game revolves around capital and exchanges. If prices are not smashed down to absolute lows, exchanges will be completely marginalized in the crypto world and entirely replaced by US stock ETFs. This is also why the hunter believes that the crypto market will not directly open a bull market this year according to historical patterns.

Insight 3:

Do not assume that Bitcoin's rise will inevitably lead to an altcoin season. There aren’t that many inevitabilities in this world. Bitcoin and altcoins are entirely different species, and there is no necessary link between them. The essence of craving an altcoin season is because people are holding altcoins and want to break even or because they don’t have Bitcoin and want to gamble on the explosion of altcoins. The old method of clinging to the boat to seek the sword is no longer effective, as the underlying logic and ecological environment have changed.
From a macro perspective, large funds will not invest in altcoins because altcoins cannot deeply accommodate large funds. Large funds require sufficiently deep reservoirs that allow them to enter and exit freely with good returns. Just look at how many altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in this wave?

From a micro-logical point of view, retail investors prefer to play with lower market cap and higher payout 'meme coins.' This round of altcoins hasn’t taken off at all; VC coins are also losing enthusiasm, while memes are dominating. Just look at the coins recently listed on exchanges to see what is truly popular. Your altcoin has such a high market cap but such a small pattern, always pulling and dumping; who the hell dares to play with you? The reason altcoins were played in the past was that there weren't many options. Now that the market has shifted from a seller's market to a buyer's market, what advantages do you still have? Moreover, another fatal flaw of altcoins is their long issuance time. No matter what lane you are the leader in, your issuance time is simply too long. To say something unpleasant, the concepts of your altcoins are already outdated now. Do you understand? If you claim to be the leader in DeFi, NFTs, or GameFi, people will think you are foolish. Are you still playing with such old concepts? We’ve all gone Trump, all gone MAGA, all gone ban; are you a primitive man?
A long issuance time means the dispersion of chips, which means increased difficulty in control, which means many stuck positions, which means inconsistent interests. Therefore, project parties are afraid to pump; as soon as they pump, the profit-taking positions will run to secure their gains, and if they continue to pump, they have to alleviate the stuck positions, and continuing to pump will lead to losses for the project parties. This is why altcoins often pump once and then deflate. If this underlying logic and ecological environment do not change, an altcoin season cannot happen. In summary, so-called altcoins were just a product of the past ICO explosion, emerging during an era of chaotic and unregulated cryptocurrency. Just like from 2019 to 2020, the entire crypto world was highly integrated with Ponzi schemes. If you are still clinging to the concept of altcoins, it’s essentially the same as clinging to the hope of a Ponzi scheme player that PlusToken can still operate; it’s no different from those who still believe in getting rich through micro-business models. That era has passed, and you must admit that you have become the cannon fodder of the times.
From the perspective of the project party, let me say one last thing: if I have money to pump up your coin, I might as well start a new altcoin. This way, I spend one amount of money and can control two projects. Isn't that better? If I keep up with current events and use the pumping money to incubate memes, guess how many coins I can issue?
From non-farm payrolls to the elections, predicting the subsequent market trend -

From a cyclical perspective, this wave of decline aligns with the interests of both sides in the current market game (unfortunately, it’s the retail investors). As the elections approach, if the market remains high, even if some want to fan the flames in the crypto world using the elections, it’s very likely to backfire. A simple reasoning shows that if the price remains around 74000, any further upward movement would break the historical high, and the future market would be filled with unknowns and uncertainties. Pumping it up won't bring in more participants, and if it directly declines, the market would interpret it as the election expectations being fulfilled, turning bullish into bearish, easily shifting to panic.

The plunge early yesterday at least brought the market back to a comfortable range, with pressure above and support below. There’s a space of 3000-4000 points, and within this space, it’s easier for major institutions to control and manipulate market sentiment.

Combining the chart drawn in Tuesday's hunter article, 68800 is the neckline resistance for the daily W double bottom rebound. Once broken, it will accelerate upward, turning this position into a support level. Today, Bitcoin also rebounded at 68800, currently still weakly oscillating around the support at 68800. So tonight's non-farm payrolls will focus on this point.

Before the non-farm data is released tonight, if the market remains unchanged and still oscillates around the 68800 support, even if it breaks below 68800 after the data is released, do not chase the short. Wait for a rebound. If tonight continues to decline, it won’t make those chasing shorts comfortable.

You can wait for a rebound at 70200-70500 to go short, with a stop-loss at 71000. The logic for this short point is that the hourly chart clearly shows a resistance point at 69700. If the market doesn't change this afternoon before the non-farm data is released, then everyone will hope to short at this position. If the major players want to squeeze out these short positions, the market must rise to the stop-loss level (at least 500 points higher), thus we can conclude that Bitcoin's price will be pulled above 70200 tonight. The take-profit target is below at 66500-66000. Personally, I suggest reducing positions to resist the volatility of the elections. You could catch the peak; if you don’t want to withstand this volatility, then take profit at 66500.