Many people are urging for updates; most are confused, and a few are just here for the excitement. My trend short position at 68500 has already been completely stopped out at 71000. I went through two points at 65000 and 66000 without exiting, and waited until yesterday to stop out at 71000. The reason I didn't publish an article is not that I am afraid of the hunters or that I don't dare to face it. If I can't handle this bit of pressure, I should have rolled away early. The reason for not updating is that I don't understand this wave of market.
Last Friday, after the flash crash at 66000, I believed deep down that this round had stabilized, and it was okay to continue holding. Although the daily level formed a W double bottom rebound pattern, including the breakthrough of the pressure level at 68800 on Monday, accelerating upward without correction, the breakout pattern was very obvious. However, in my inherent view, this rise is still in a high range large box oscillation. The reason I didn't post yesterday was that I was waiting for the market to retrace to the W double bottom's pressure level and then see whether the market chooses to confirm support for a second rebound or re-break and fall below the upward pattern after the retracement.
As a result, the market did not retrace at all and chose to do an upward flag consolidation, followed by a second accelerated rise. At this point, the only option was to stop loss, with no room for maneuver. When reasoning from the outcome back to the process, it is easy to find that the hunters made a significant mistake in this wave of upward movement. Why didn't they stop loss during the unilateral acceleration breakthrough above the 68800 pressure line, and why did they insist on holding at 71000 before stopping loss? I'm sorry; it's my problem because I didn't believe there would be no retracement. I didn't believe in this wave of rise; this conflicts completely with my thinking.
Looking back at all the trading reviews of the hunters this year, the entire text reflects a bearish outlook, constantly expressing one viewpoint: this year is not a bull market; it belongs to the last decline stage before the bull market starts. Therefore, I initially thought that any accelerated rise in the market would be interpreted as a possible short-term unexpected fluctuation.
Now I solemnly say that I made a mistake; I missed the entire bull market this year. This year is not the so-called last decline before the bull market starts; it is the bull market.
Seeing this, everyone might think it's too late for the hunters to admit their mistakes. The bull market has come this far; what’s the point of coming out to admit mistakes.
Actually, conversely, now is the final stage of the bull market, which means that next year, everyone should not expect a big bull market anymore.
Unless there are special positions in the future, I will maintain a position of no holdings before the election ends. I will only update articles for interpretation, not for trading.
Looking back at the current market, we will find several absurd points.
The U.S. stock market is still maintaining a strong high position, the dollar index is rising against the trend after interest rate cuts, the world has once again entered an era of interest rate cuts and monetary easing, and big players are gradually clearing their positions, but Bitcoin ETFs continue to flow in.
These few sentences are very complex to explain, with many conflicting and contradictory points, let’s discuss them in detail.
The U.S. stock market and the dollar, these two difficult brothers, have maintained a high position, relying entirely on the fake data from the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Department of Labor for the past six months to hold up. The reason is simple: the high position of the U.S. stock market is for the election votes, and the high position of the dollar is to avoid capital outflow caused by interest rate cuts.
The big players dumping spot represents that this main group in the crypto circle is not optimistic about the future of the crypto market. The continuous inflow of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs is more influenced by the rise in the U.S. stock market, rather than solely the impact of the crypto market.
Will the dollar collapse? I don’t think the dollar will collapse after the election, because as the world enters a phase of interest rate cuts and monetary easing, as long as the Federal Reserve does not maintain a 50 basis point cut every time, the dollar will remain strong. Moreover, if Trump comes to power, he will definitely start to shed burdens (during his last presidential term, he demanded that Japan and South Korea pay for military expenses, withdrew troops from Afghanistan, eased relations with Russia, reduced intervention in the Middle East, withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement, overturned Obamacare, and even considered withdrawing from NATO). In simple terms, Trump's administration will implement America First, reducing the costs of American hegemony and revitalizing the domestic economy.
Will the U.S. stock market collapse? I can't assert that the stock market will crash; this issue is more complex and involves more factors. I only want to say that there is currently severe social division in the U.S., and the elite groups are also polarized. The emerging elites support Trump, while traditional elites still dominate the Democratic Party. Regardless of which side comes to power, they will face reckoning, which means massive capital flight is inevitable, and the U.S. stock market will definitely enter a phase of decline.
The strength of the dollar is a weight that suppresses the bull market. If the U.S. stock market declines, it will not provide upward momentum for the bull market. Therefore, although the hunters have missed the bull market, correspondingly, I also see that this bull market will end early. We are now in the final stage of the bull market. Even if I enter, I don't know how much profit I can still make from the tail. However, the risk is gradually increasing as the election approaches, and there is one obvious reason: Bitcoin is approaching new highs while Ethereum is still in a low range. This is not the phenomenon of a bull market in full bloom.
Although I am reluctant to mention the bearish outlook again, this is just due to the current market lacking strong validation. Subsequent updates will gradually reason and validate again, quietly waiting for the bull market to end, and then making a comeback during the election phase.
