#庄家思维 looks at $BTC , what does the dealer want to do?

The current market trend of BTC is likely a carefully planned long-short conversion operation by the dealer. From a weekly perspective, after experiencing a wedge adjustment for half a year, the market has initiated a new wave of upward momentum, with bullish sentiment running high and retail investors aggressively chasing the rise. However, with five weeks of overbought performance, the dealer has fully utilized the market's optimistic sentiment to complete a round of high-level distribution.
Recently, BTC has fallen to the upper Bollinger Band and has broken through the critical Fibonacci 1.15 support, while also testing the EMA7 support level, signaling a clear retracement. This is indicative of the dealer using technical retracement to wash out and clear out the floating funds.
From the indicators, the weekly MACD bullish volume is gradually weakening, the fast line is turning downward but still in the bullish zone, indicating that the dealer has not completely turned bearish, but is intentionally creating a false illusion of a retracement to lower market expectations and suppress retail confidence.
The daily MACD bearish volume has exploded, with the fast and slow lines turning downward, further reinforcing the short-term bearish atmosphere, attracting panic selling and counter-trend shorting funds. The dealer is likely using this operation to create the illusion that "the bulls are dead," while in reality, they are accumulating at low prices to prepare for the next round of upward movement.
Additionally, from market news, the recent hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve and the decline in interest rate cut expectations are undoubtedly important tools for the dealer to harvest the bulls. These bearish factors, combined with market adjustments, not only amplify retail panic but also provide ample chips for the dealer to accumulate at low prices. The actions of Trump and his family fund WLFI quietly bottoming out ETH and LINK tokens further validate the possibility of the dealer's strategic positioning behind the scenes. This unusual market dynamic indicates that the current strong retracement is more like a planned harvesting under the cooperation of the dealer and policies.
In summary, the current BTC trend is not simply the end of a bull market, but a necessary means for the dealer to create short-term panic and adjust the rhythm. In the dealer's operational logic, every retracement is a process of accumulation and clearing floating funds, especially near key support levels (such as EMA55 and Fibonacci 1.382), which often serve as the starting point for the next bullish launch. One should avoid being influenced by short-term market emotions, rationally analyze technical signals and market dynamics, and wait for the new round of upward signals after the dealer completes their accumulation.

Recently, I've seen many people feeling very down, lamenting that the market is sluggish and difficult to navigate.

In fact, a choppy market is relatively easier to handle; focus on key levels when trading, and don't always expect that once you open a position, it will follow your predicted trend.

In trading, the first priority is to protect your capital, and the second is to seek profit. Learn to protect your principal, learn to accept losses, and only then pursue maximizing profits.

From my experience with significant losses, I've summarized a sentence that I hope will be helpful to everyone: "If you turn a trend into a range, you might only have small losses or small gains; if you turn a range into a trend, you might face significant losses."

Let’s review the conditions for the start of the copycat season:

(I have clearly pointed this out in the article on the 24th, and also provided the layout points)

#山寨季何时到来？

$BTC Technical Analysis - 12.24

Daily Chart Pattern: Yesterday, a long upper and lower shadow candlestick with a short body was formed, while the trading volume remains insufficient, indicating that the market has not yet formed a bottoming signal. Overall performance still leans weak, with both bulls and bears not yet establishing a clear direction.

MACD Indicator: Bearish volume continues to be released, and the fast and slow lines are gradually approaching the zero line. It is essential to pay attention to the performance of the fast and slow lines near the zero line. If a golden cross signal appears above the zero line, it will provide some support for the bulls; otherwise, bearish pressure may further intensify.

Bollinger Bands Indicator: The current price is around $94,000, located within the encompassing area of the lower Bollinger Band, without triggering an oversold market. The shape of the Bollinger Bands indicates that the broad fluctuation pattern continues, and it is challenging to break through the current range in the short term.

EMA Indicator: EMA7 and EMA21 have formed a death cross and are extending downwards, further distancing themselves from the lower EMA55 ($91,500). This indicates that the price is still oscillating downwards, seeking bottom support signals. It is worth noting that EMA55 - $91,500 serves as an important support level that has never been touched during this round of price correction, exhibiting strong support effects.

Current Market Characteristics and Strategy Suggestions:
Considering the insufficient trading volume during the Christmas holiday, the probability of the market maintaining a range-bound fluctuation is high; however, bottom signals remain unclear, so it is not recommended to blindly bottom-fish for long positions at this stage.

Risk Control: Currently, the bearish volume has not been fully released, and there is a possibility that the price may continue to dive.

Opportunity Seizing: Pay attention to the support strength at $91,500 (EMA55). If the price touches this level for the first time, one might attempt to take a risky long position.

Patience: If the price does not show a clear stabilization signal, it is advisable to maintain a wait-and-see approach, waiting for confirmation of bottom patterns or volume before taking action.

Summary: In the short term, BTC still primarily trends downwards with fluctuations; the support level at $91,500 deserves close attention. Risk must be strictly controlled during operations, and patience is needed for the market to provide clearer signals.

Preview: There has been unusual movement in the Ethereum altcoin direction. For specific analysis, please check my next post.

Real-time Opening:

$BTC Current Price 95750,
Market Price Buy Long,
1、97600 2、98400 3、99300 (Partial Take Profit)
94400 Stop Loss.

When will the alt season start? In-depth analysis of ETH/BTC exchange rate and BTC market capitalization

To discuss when the "alt season" will start, we need to make a clearer analysis based on data and trends. Next, I will start with the two core indicators of ETH/BTC exchange rate and BTC market capitalization share (Market Cap BTC Dominance) and analyze them in detail.

1. ETH/BTC exchange rate

The current ETH/BTC exchange rate is in a triangular consolidation range after a large-volume decline.

Current data: After falling to a low of 0.0335 on December 20, it rebounded to around 0.036, and the current real-time price is 0.0345.
Short-term observation: Pay attention to whether a new low will be generated around 0.034 at the four-hour level. If a new low is generated, the target position needs to pay attention to the support strength of the purple box range (0.0315-0.033) in the figure below.
Upper pressure level:
0.037 (support and resistance swap position).
0.04 (the valve of the altcoin bull run), if it stands firmly at this level, it is expected to start a strong market for ETH and drive the rotation of altcoins.

2. BTC market cap share (Market Cap BTC Dominance)

The BTC market cap share is currently rising steadily along the four-hour trend line, showing a blood-sucking effect.

Bullish signal:

The daily and four-hour EMAs are both in a bullish arrangement, indicating that funds are flowing to BTC, and the intention to protect the market is obvious.
The blood-sucking effect has led to a slowdown in the inflow of funds to altcoins, and market funds are mainly concentrated in BTC in the short term.

Key positions:

Upper pressure level: The bear market callback Fibonacci 0.618 position, which is around 60%. This position may become the short-term top of BTC's market cap share.

Lower support level: The trend line supports around 56%. Once it falls below this support level, it may trigger the transfer of funds to altcoins.

Conditions for starting the altcoin season:

1. BTC stabilizes and enters a sideways consolidation

The stabilization of BTC is the prerequisite for the return of funds to altcoins. Please refer to my previous analysis post for specific key positions.

2. The ETH/BTC exchange rate no longer hits a new low and breaks through the above pressure levels

Breaking through and stabilizing 0.037 and 0.04 will confirm ETH's staged strength and drive market sentiment.

3. BTC's market capitalization ratio peaks and retreats, and consolidates between 56% and 60%

Once BTC's market capitalization ratio retreats from 60% and fluctuates sideways, it will release a signal that funds will flow into altcoins.

Summary

If the above conditions are not met, the "altcoin season" may just be a rebound in a downward trend, so don't bet too early.Observe market changes carefully and seize real opportunities for capital inflows!

挂单接针了

$SOL 174.7

$ETH 3273

$BTC 91420

CFX 0.15574

#加密市场回调 #市场回调抄底还是观望？

The midday reminder has passed, and the opportunity to break free has been given. Did you seize it?
$BTC rebounded to the key point 1 indicated in the chart below and approached point 2

$ETH is weak, only rebounding near key point 1

Still, I want to advise you, a crash is not scary, holding a position is not scary, what matters is to seize the opportunities given. In a major upward trend, you have the chance to break free if you go long, but if you go all in and get liquidated, not even a miracle can save you.

If you are feeling very frustrated at this moment, it's time to tidy up your mood, review properly, and wait for the next big opportunity. The bull market is not over yet.

The current market has experienced price divergence, leading to drastic fluctuations in a short period and triggering panic selling.

From the order flow and liquidation heatmap, the market has returned to a clean natural rebound phase. Whether there will be a second round of panic selling depends on the performance of the rebound to key levels. However, for risk control considerations, one should consider averaging down by adding positions and then think about reducing positions or closing all at key levels to avoid risks. After all, there are uncontrollable crisis factors emerging in the macro environment.

ETH 1,3780 2,3870

BTC 1,97800 2,98800

A sharp drop is not scary, holding positions is not scary; what matters is to seize the opportunity when it arises. In a major upward trend, going long gives you a chance to recover, but if you go all in and face liquidation, even a savior cannot help you.

Big crash? Do you think the bull market is over? Wrong! This week, anyone who catches a trend in one direction will make a lot of money.

Currently, Bitcoin is in a wide consolidation range and is currently exploring the lower boundary. Be brave to go long at low levels and short at high levels. In the consolidation range, the focus is on profit rather than range. Once the direction is revealed, the trend must be changed in the short term.

Choose the right direction, #盈利 is as easy as breathing.

ETH 3845-4085 on Friday, profit of 200 points.
BTC 98300-101900, profit of 3600 points.
ADA 1.15-1.23, profit of 7%
BCH 595-639, profit of 7%

ETH 3930-4000 on Sunday, profit of 70 points.
BTC 98900-105000, profit of 1600 points.

The market characteristic of the weekend is that the volume is insufficient, but trading opportunities will be generated at key positions, which is suitable for left-side entry, focusing on profit, not on amplitude, and protecting profits to prevent retracement.

#山寨季怎么布局？ has already risen for a round, and many have formed a daily level dead cross, and the short side volume has begun to show. At present, the big cake ether needs to give direction. It is worth noting that the Ether exchange rate has reached a critical level, and whether it can break through is crucial. If it breaks through, a new round of main upward trend will begin.

#ETH大涨
Brothers who watched my post yesterday should have benefited. Next, the big pancake will be in a horizontal fluctuation, and $ETH is likely to continue performing.

The purple box on the left image indicates the entry position on the left. The right image was published yesterday.

#BTC走势预测
BTC yesterday fluctuated up and down, completely clearing the liquidity of longs and shorts in the market, and is currently in a phase of directional decision-making.
What needs to be noted is that the daily line received above EMA7, indicating that this is a perfect washout, but the dealer does not want to disrupt the bullish trend.
Currently, the overall direction is still bullish, but not blindly so; pay attention to the performance at key levels. We are currently in a natural rebound phase, with the upper 0.618 position at 10.15-10.2k, I lean towards testing this level upwards, and need to pay attention to the price performance nearby. In the short term, we are mainly dealing with sideways fluctuations.

ETH's direction is much stronger; although there was a drop, it quickly recovered due to the influence of BTC. Therefore, altcoins also follow suit and perform relatively stronger than BTC.
In the short term, focus on above 3840; if it stabilizes, a low long strategy can be adopted. This weekend, it is very likely to lead altcoins to experience a period of independent market performance.
What needs to be noted is that from a larger time frame perspective, ETH is currently in a very cost-effective price range.

The non-farm payroll data will be released in the evening, pay attention.

#meme板块关注热点
#山寨季來了？
The MEME sector is often very strong once it establishes a bullish trend, but you must be able to withstand the washout and friction before the pull-up.

​On the 29th, I publicly posted a post and judged that the MEME sector would start a strong main uptrend this week. Today is just the last day.

​In the last wave of the main uptrend, I heavily invested in bonk and brought satisfactory gains. I believe that this time's neiro will make me happy.

#AI与GameFi市场表现
GOAT is currently in a very cost-effective purchase range. As a native dog, it represents the infinite future vision of the AI ​​sector.

Cryptocurrency GOAT has the following characteristics:

Advantages

- Innovative concepts and technologies: GOAT was conceived and initiated by an AI Bot called "Truth Terminal". Its uniqueness lies in the combination of AI and cryptocurrency. It drives market sentiment through AI's autonomous content generation and interaction with users. This innovative model subverts the traditional cryptocurrency issuance method.
- Broad application prospects: GOAT uses advanced blockchain technology, such as energy-efficient consensus algorithms and highly scalable network architectures, to ensure that transaction speed, security and environmental protection are at the top level in the industry. In addition, GOAT is also committed to building a diversified application ecosystem. Currently, many DApps have chosen to deploy on the GOAT chain, covering finance, games, social networking, art and other fields, which greatly broadens its application scenarios and value boundaries.
- Active community construction: The GOAT team is well aware of the importance of community power to the development of a currency. It actively builds communication platforms, holds online and offline activities, encourages users to participate in decision-making, and jointly shapes the future of GOAT. Now it has gathered many loyal fans and formed a strong consensus foundation.

0.77-0.84 can establish a head position, and then guard it and wait for it to continue to climb up!

$BTC

#doge⚡
Doge is entering a new round of main rising waves and starting to explore the ceiling of meme market value.
First look at the target 0.525-0.55

During the rise, you can buy on dips, sell during the overbought period, and add positions during the pullback, which will bring you unexpected gains.

The following picture was published by me yesterday and is valid until the above target is reached.

#doge⚡
doge is about to迎来 a new round of主升浪, with无限可能 in the future.
$DOGE