$BTC After experiencing a wedge adjustment lasting six months, a new upward trend has successfully emerged. However, with the strong performance in the overbought range over the past five weeks, the current price has retreated to the upper Bollinger Band area. The weekly K-line closing at eight o'clock this morning showed an entity bearish line with a long lower shadow, and the price has fallen below the Fibonacci 1.15 level (95700) for bear market pullbacks while testing the support level of EMA7 (93600). This trend indicates that the market's pullback pressure is increasing.
From the MACD perspective, the bullish volume at the weekly level is gradually weakening, and the fast line has begun to turn down, but it is still far from the zero axis, remaining in the bullish effort area, indicating that the medium-term bullish trend has not completely weakened. On the other hand, the MACD bearish volume at the daily level is in an explosive phase, with both fast and slow lines turning down, indicating that the short-term bearish force is quite strong. Attention should be focused on the trend after the bearish volume exhausts, especially when the fast and slow lines approach the zero axis, whether it can form a golden cross above zero, thus providing the bulls with a second opportunity to exert force.
Despite the dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve last Friday and the easing PAC data that brought a strong rebound to the market, the recent decline in interest rate expectations and Powell's hawkish statements have created significant bearish pressure. Currently, BTC has not shown obvious signs of stabilization, and this pullback has become the strongest adjustment since the main uptrend following the U.S. elections. However, this does not mean the end of the bull market, and I remain confident in BTC's future performance. History has shown that during a bull market, every pullback is an excellent opportunity to enter, but one must wait for stabilization signals before going long.
It is worth mentioning that in the past, Trump would quickly make fierce statements to boost market confidence after the Federal Reserve issued bearish remarks. However, this time he has remained unusually silent and has not made any rebuttals. At the same time, there are signs that the WLFI fund under the Trump family is quietly bottom-fishing mainstream tokens like ETH and LINK. This unusual behavior may suggest that the strong distribution triggered by the Federal Reserve's bearish remarks is likely a carefully planned bull harvesting operation.
From the daily chart perspective, BTC's key support levels are at 93600 and EMA55 (91500). If this position can stabilize, the price may fluctuate between 91500 and 99500. Once it falls below EMA55, significant attention should be paid to the support strength at the Fibonacci 1.382 level (89500) for bear market pullbacks. At the same time, the rebound and supplementary signals of ETH and altcoins need to wait for BTC's stabilization before confirmation.
In summary, the current market environment is full of challenges, but every pullback presents an opportunity for cautious positioning. Patiently waiting for stabilization signals and seizing opportunities in line with market trends will be the best strategy for dealing with the current market.
