When will the alt season start? In-depth analysis of ETH/BTC exchange rate and BTC market capitalization
To discuss when the "alt season" will start, we need to make a clearer analysis based on data and trends. Next, I will start with the two core indicators of ETH/BTC exchange rate and BTC market capitalization share (Market Cap BTC Dominance) and analyze them in detail.
1. ETH/BTC exchange rate
The current ETH/BTC exchange rate is in a triangular consolidation range after a large-volume decline.
Current data: After falling to a low of 0.0335 on December 20, it rebounded to around 0.036, and the current real-time price is 0.0345.
Short-term observation: Pay attention to whether a new low will be generated around 0.034 at the four-hour level. If a new low is generated, the target position needs to pay attention to the support strength of the purple box range (0.0315-0.033) in the figure below.
Upper pressure level:
0.037 (support and resistance swap position).
0.04 (the valve of the altcoin bull run), if it stands firmly at this level, it is expected to start a strong market for ETH and drive the rotation of altcoins.
2. BTC market cap share (Market Cap BTC Dominance)
The BTC market cap share is currently rising steadily along the four-hour trend line, showing a blood-sucking effect.
Bullish signal:
The daily and four-hour EMAs are both in a bullish arrangement, indicating that funds are flowing to BTC, and the intention to protect the market is obvious.
The blood-sucking effect has led to a slowdown in the inflow of funds to altcoins, and market funds are mainly concentrated in BTC in the short term.
Key positions:
Upper pressure level: The bear market callback Fibonacci 0.618 position, which is around 60%. This position may become the short-term top of BTC's market cap share.
Lower support level: The trend line supports around 56%. Once it falls below this support level, it may trigger the transfer of funds to altcoins.
Conditions for starting the altcoin season:
1. BTC stabilizes and enters a sideways consolidation
The stabilization of BTC is the prerequisite for the return of funds to altcoins. Please refer to my previous analysis post for specific key positions.
2. The ETH/BTC exchange rate no longer hits a new low and breaks through the above pressure levels
Breaking through and stabilizing 0.037 and 0.04 will confirm ETH's staged strength and drive market sentiment.
3. BTC's market capitalization ratio peaks and retreats, and consolidates between 56% and 60%
Once BTC's market capitalization ratio retreats from 60% and fluctuates sideways, it will release a signal that funds will flow into altcoins.
Summary
If the above conditions are not met, the "altcoin season" may just be a rebound in a downward trend, so don't bet too early.Observe market changes carefully and seize real opportunities for capital inflows!
