Firstly i want to address the Trump speech.

I didnt want to even post about it but the amount of cherry picked information being posted on square is both uninformed and misleading.
I see many "Bullish" comments on these posts by people being misled.
Other than firing Gensler Trump did not say a single concrete or meaningful thing for Crypto, the speech was a huge letdown for anyone who watched it and was expecting more.
For anyone who is informed the speech was a whole lot of nothing.

Keys points,

Trump would fire Gensler day 1,
Gensler was gone already, he is Bidens puppy, Gensler gave the initial Ethereum ETF approval on the back of Trumps "pro crypto" stance, after Trump accepted Crypto donations, it was a pro crypto move for Biden/democrats.The final Ethereum ETF approval news came out first thing Monday July 15th, this was 2 days after the failed assassination attemp on Trump, coincidence ?Trump saying he would fire Gensler was probably to show Powell and others that he will remove anyone who does not conform to his agenda in the coming months

Trump would hold siezed Crypto as strategic reserve,
The US has already sold a large part of their siezed crypto, also they could sell the rest before Trump becomes President.The US government only holds $14 Billion worth of BTC, this is a large number but in relation to the BTC market cap or price it is insignificant.

Trump compares BTC to Gold, Silver or the steel industry,
This was already the case without Trump, no politician has been responsible for the growth of Bitcoin, the only reason they care now is because it is worth enough votes to matter, that and they have seen the profits to be made.

Things some might have missed,
Trump started his speech by introducing influencial people in attendance, this included Jake Paul😳, for anyone who does not know please google "CryptoZoo", Jakes VERY close brother and influencer Logan Paul started CryptoZoo, it was a massive scam and it fleeced a large part of the crypto community, some lost their life savings.Trump ended his speech with the words "Enjoy playing with your Bitcoin and Crypto". Playing with ? .....

The week ahead, Wednesday is key (But not all)

There is a LOT of high impact data this week, each will effect the market.

The main focus is the Feds fund rate but also the Press conference

The prediction for a cut in July is 6.2%, it has gone up from around 4.7% over the last couple days, this shows some still see the chance of a shock rate cut.

I say "shock" rate cut only because it would certainly end Powells career at the Fed, the US economy needs a rate cut, a July cut would be totally warranted and would likely be priced higher if not for political agenda.
For those who do not know, Trump wants Powell to hold rates higher, long story short it would help Trump in the coming elections.

Important to note!
If the Fed keeps rates at 5.5% for July then the market will look to the FOMC press conference 30 minutes later, this is when the market will price in a September cut based on what is said, this will also have huge implications on the market.
A Bullish shock will come if the Fed lowers rates in July.
A Bearish shock could happen in the FOMC press conference, this will happen if Powell keeps the same restrictive/hawkish stance he has had since the start of the year, if Powell does not give a clear indication of a September cut then this will be bearish for "risk on" assets
Both the July decision and the press conference thereafter will effect market sentiment and price.

This whole week is a minefield

The key focus will be on Wednesday but before and after this we have key labour market readings, most importantly on Thursday and Friday.
The labour market is a huge warning sign for recession, the Sahm rule recession warning could be hit this week if the unemployment reading is above 4.1%, it is a well respected and trusted indicator that is used(with others) by most analysts.
2 days ago i watched an interview by the creator of the Sahm rule (Claudia Sahm), she and other well respected analysts have already warned of serious consequences if the labour market shows further signs of weakness, she also stated the Fed should already have started cutting rates.
The whole market will be focused on the Unemployment/Jobs data, it could have a huge effect on price if there are any shock readings.

My Views,

I think that the Fed will hold rates for July, i think that political agenda will sway them to push the decision until September.
If the Fed were to make a "shock cut" on Wednesday it would be because a recession is all but inevitable, the Fed does not like to spook the market, a Wednesday cut would definitely spook the market.
For me what Powell says at the Fomc press conference is most important, Powell is a master of kicking the can down the road (stalling), i dont think he has any room left to stall but it could happen for political agenda.
If the Fed holds rates at 5.5% for July and Powell does not give a clear plan of a -25/-50 bps cut for September then i think it is basically economic self sabotage for political agenda, for Trump.
I think Powell would face huge backlash from democrats if he does this.
In my opinion this whole week should be avoided for short term trading, technical analysis and indicators will have little/no use when so much Macro data will define price movement.

Avoiding short term risks that you have no control over is how to survive and stay profitable long term in crypto.

Trade safely.

Peace.

#TheWolfThatWins #US_Job_Market_Slowdown #MtGoxJulyRepayments #Market_Update

This is a prequel for another post i will be posting in the next few days.

The post in question will be long but it will give you an edge, sadly the posts that take me the most time and are filled with the most knowledge are the posts that get the lowest views(By Far)
This post will hopefully lead more of you to read my next "boring" post.
Lets go,
So what is you edge?
Most people who read my posts have jobs or are studying, you will have an edge in that field over others who have not done your job or studied what you have.
Even somebody who is homeless and without a penny to their name has an edge, they will know how to survive in far tougher conditions than people who have not had to face such adversity.
We can gain an edge out of necessity or the will and determination to be better than someone else.

Why do many people think that you dont need an edge in Crypto?

Most importantly why you dont need to earn one?

Crypto is a zero sum game.

If you are making money, someone else is losing, and vice versa.

I have a limited edge in Crypto because of knowledge,

I have spent countless hours doing research into crypto, mostly macro and fundamentals, somewhere along the way i had an "aha moment" when i could finally connect the dots on a level that gave me an edge.

My edge only goes so far,

I lose 100% of my edge if i trade high leverage/margin, i know this.

This is not only because high leverage/margin is inherently rigged against retail investors, it is also because i dont have the mentality/discipline to control myself.

You might already have an edge in Crypto,
You might have an edge because you have dedicated countless hours to Crypto trading in a constructive way. You could have an edge just by being disciplined, discipline alone gives you an edge over most retail crypto traders. You could have an edge because you only buy Spot on dips.You could have an edge because you are financially secure and you are able to make crypto investment decisions without financial fear.

If you are down in Crypto and cant find your edge then you have a few options,

(Option A) You rely on somebody elses edge, whether that be a family member, a friend or somebody on Square or YT or elsewhere, your edge is only as good as the knowledge they give you and how you use it, at this point you need to ask yourself how easily did they attain this edge, also how easily could you just spend some time and gain this edge for yourself?(Option B) You take the time to learn, you study, you slowly increase your edge over other traders, if you do this in a sensible way and dedicate your time and energy to gaining an edge, you will also have an "aha moment" when you start to understand the edge you have, an edge you lacked previously.(Option C) You just keep repeating the same trading patterns as you have in the past and hope this time it will be different, spoiler it wont be, you either need to find an edge or you need to stop.

You cant be succesful in crypto without an edge.

The crypto market has a huge imbalance of power(edge) and it is only going to get a LOT worse before it gets better.

This is just one days worth of "venture capital" news on "The Block" from 25th July👇

This crypto market is a Gold Rush for venture capital

This is not a belief in crypto, this is the richest 1% wanting to profit off Crypto as much as they can in the coming years, this is unregulated bliss for them, they are exploiting a massive edge they have in the market.
My VC Cartel post shows how much of an edge they have

Every penny that goes into Crypto it being fought over,

The higher your edge and the more you get.The lower your edge and the more money you lose.

This entire list probably has an edge on you, definitely on me.👇
Governments Large fundsLarge venture capitalLarge CEXsLarge stable coinsWhales Insider TradersLarge and small criminal groups.Any team/VC friendly Crypto project.Large/mid sized influencers.Well educated/extremely disciplined Crypto traders.Any/All of the above that are using extremely high quality bots to trade.

I could probably add far more to this list, for your average crypto trader this list is basically the unbeatable part of Crypto.
Once all of the above have exploited their edge it is left to the rest of us to fight for the scraps.
They take the meat and we pick at the bones.
I would probably guess that for every dollar/fiat currency equivalent that goes into crypto around 99% ends up in the hands of one of the above list.
This might sound very daunting and it is, we have empowered the rich and allowed them to feast on crypto, the gluttony will not end for a long time, once they have the power they will fight to keep it.

You need an edge, now more than ever

The edge i think i have currently is understanding where the Crypto market will be heading in the next months-year.
I hate where it is headed and had a moral dilemma even wanting to post about it.
I dont want to fuel the VC part of crypto or give them more power, at the same time i know crypto and i know most will invest anyways, i guess offering an educated view, based on research, is the lesser of 2 evils.
I know the VCs will be heavily invested and pushing the re-staking narrative in the months to come, including all tokens, new or existing, that are VC backed and fall into that ecosystem.
I want to be in before the "real" hype and out before the crash.
I want to help people who follow me to understand and gain an edge, i can assure you that when Eigen or its competitors go fully live towards the end of this year then thats where the VCs will heavily influence you to invest.
All the big YT or social media channels, even the square posters with 50-100k+ followers(they are mostly binance backed), everyone will be pushing this narrative.
All of the VC garbage/scam projects allocate tokens for influences, these influencers are selling you something they already own, they want you to be their exit liquidity.
I dont own a single token in this space, i want to educate you and when i suggest buying into projects you will know why, i will do this before i enter anything myself.
Your edge in the coming months is to understand the narrative before it has blown up on social media.
We need to get in, make profits, and then get out, the only way to beat this part of crypto is to have an edge and use it.
In my next post i will explain this narrative and also show why it has not even started to explode yet, currently it cant for technical reasons(slashing, rewards), once those are sorted out and it goes fully live then the next VC Gold Rush will start.

We will be in before that happens.🤙

Thanks for reading.

Peace.

#TheWolfThatWins #EigenLayer #ALTrestaking #ETHETFsApproved

I was browsing around crypto news and i came across a post/news article.

I post to try educate and this was a great example to use as a learning experience.
This is mostly for newer traders who are more susceptible to making uninformed or misinformed decisions.
This post will show why you should not take Crypto news/posts(Hype or FUD) at face value, even when you read them on trusted sites.

Before we start, what is open interest?

Open interest is the total value of open positions or position that have not been offset in the futures markets on crypto exchanges, this is long and short positions.
Example,
If you have $1000 and you open a long/short trade on BTC(futures)using 10x leverage you would be adding $10 000 to the open interest while that trade is open.
If you purchased $1000 worth of BTC via spot this would not count as open interest, this would be trade volume.

This is the post👇(July 29th)

I have underlined all the parts of this post that most uninformed Crypto traders would use for confirmation of huge Bullish price movement to come.
The first and most important part of how this post could be recieved by new or uninformed crypto traders are the words "suggests imminent price breakout"
This post is by a well known crypto news source, cointelegraph, it is also shared all over the web, i read this post on Tradingview for example.
Please note that this post made no mention of how BTC price reacted when reaching this level of open interest in the last few months.
For some reason the chart shown in the post has also unselected the BTC price.
Lets go to coinglass and see the chart, exact same one they used in the post.
With the BTC price they for some reason decided to not include👇

Ok so lets do some research and see how accurate that post is or if it could be considered misleading
The post mentions previous all time highs(open interest) on the 29th March 2024 (it was actually the 28th march but anyways)

Lets see how high levels of open interest have effected BTC price over the last few months.

29th March 👇

Lets look at other examples.
This is the exact same chart used for that post, you can find it on coinglass.

You can see by the yellow line how BTC price has reacted to high open interest in the following days.
If you want to see the same on the charts👇

In all cases of high open interest since March 29th(the date listed in the post) the BTC price has fallen in the days that follow.
Why should an imminent price breakout, based on open interest, happen now? (As suggested in the post)
If you were an uninformed Crypto trader and read that post you could easily be misled, that post is by a trusted source, also shared on other trusted platforms like tradingview, it could easily be used as "proof" of Bullish sentiment and a reason to open long positions.(Possibly with high leverage)
Most new crypto traders have no idea what open interest is, most of these articles are either clickbait with cherry picked info or they are posted for the sole intention of influencing your decisions(PsyOp).
This is done a lot and the more you understand the more you notice it.
This post is solely for education, i am not predicting price movement or saying you should based on this post.
The point of this post is to show that you need to question information you read, this is more important if you are new to crypto and this information could influence your trading decisions.
If you read a post and find yourself wanting to invest based on it, first ask yourself if you understand what it means, if you dont then take the time to learn, the knowledge will stay with you and will help you in the future.
If you keep doing this then slowly but surely things will start making more and more sense.
Final thoughts,

There are ways to use open interest in your trading strategy but high levels of open interest alone can not be used as confirmation of price direction, arbitrage and other factors could add to open interest but not have much effect on price direction.
An example of this would be if a large holder purchased $10 million worth of BTC on binance(spot) at $61 000(not open interest) and then shorted BTC at 1-1 for $10 million on coinbase if the price was $61 250(Open interest), they would be taking advantage of price difference(arbitrage) but this would add $10 million to the open interest, the short is futures and the spot is not, the effect on BTC price would be basically nothing but the open interest would be effected by $10 million.

Thanks for reading.

Peace

#TheWolfThatWins #LearnTogether #BTC☀ #btcupdates2024

This is not clickbait, this is not drama, this is facts.

What happens in the next 2 days and then the decision on the 31st of July will define Crypto price.(For a while)

I pointed out 2 days ago that the chance of no cut in July but most importantly in September was rising, this was mostly political.

Since that post the chance of a July cut has risen sharply, most importantly a chance for 50bps or more by September has also risen sharply.

Political agenda can only hide so much, recent US data, especially in the labour market show signs that an interest cut is needed, this is not "soft landing" data, that was months ago, this is now becoming " hard landing " data.
The data actually shows it is already to late.
The bad news is bad news.
If you understand the treasury bond market then look at what the yield curve is doing, also "the spread" , if you dont, basically it is showing the exact same signs that have been acurate in most past recessions in the last 100 years.

The GDP, unemployment and Core Pce data that comes out in the next 2 days will give the FED time to consider this data for a possible July cut.
It will have huge implications for the Crypto price in the next week.
Far more than the ETF final approval or Trump speaking in a few days!
I mentioned in a post weeks ago that Trump would try and influence rate cuts and then Trump confirmed that last week, he wants Powell and the Fed to hold rates higher.
Trump does not care about current economic hardships , the more the average American suffers due to the economic conditions in the coming months, the more likely they will want drastic change, Trump is drastic change.
Trump will continue to try and get Powell to hold rates higher, it is sick if you understand what that leads to but he does not care.
Biden and Harris are responsible for this, the current economic pain is Trumps sure-fire road to re-election.
Powell knows this, he also knows that Trump can swing the blame for what happens in the coming months however he wants if/when elected.
If Powell plays along Trump will say " The FED can only do so much, it was bad government policy that caused this "
If Powell does not play along then the blame will fall at his feet.

There is so much indecision in the market

The S&P500 has fallen substantially, this comes off the back of bad earnings data by Google and Tesla, dont be fooled this is also largely due to economic concerns.

I wrote this "FUD" in a post about US recession worries over a month ago👇

Gold is showing the continued "risk off" sentiment, it fell towards the end of last week due to profit taking, it has now resumed bullish momentum.

This indecision is also clearly shown by the fact that the crypto market cap has dropped since the ETH final approval, yes i know " sell the news" but why is BTC dominance climbing after ETH final approval?
BTC is the most "Risk off" investment in Crypto.

I have reached this point in the post and i have lost the point i was trying to make, this market confusion is contagious.😫
I think the point i am trying to make is that the whole market is confused, the predicted chance of the Fed cutting rates changing so much each day proves that.
The only thing i can say for a near certainty is that the US economic Policy is what is going to effect the Crypto market the most in the coming months, most importantly in the coming days-week.
From now until the Feds fund rate decision on July 31st i think things could get very volatile.
I personally believe at this point a "soft landing" is near impossible, that being said it might take many months for the "hard landing" to be confirmed.
What crypto basically wants now(short term) is for the data to show the FED have "messed" it up, that would force the Fed to cut rates regardless of politics.
For crypto the best result(Short term) would be that the FED needs to make drastic policy decisions (July cut) and fire up the money printer and inject money into the economy.
This would lead to the last Euphoric phase.
For now it is all about the July cut, if that does happen it will lead to another large gain for crypto in the weeks that follow or until the "hard landing" cant be hidden any longer.
Trump is "pro crypto" but also trying to stop the "pro crypto" decision the Fed could make🤔 (I know its more complex than that).
It would be the end of Powells career at the FED if he cuts rate in 7 days (should Trump win).

In other news,
I have been working on my Eigen Layer part 2 post for the last couple days, i will post in the next couple days, it is a long post but will be worth reading for people who want an educated roadmap on how to profit off the re-staking ecosytem towards the end of this year when Eigen "should" go fully live.
Some FUD,
Trade safely over the next few days,
Politics, high impact US economic data, Grayscale sell pressure, Mt.Gox payments, Feds fund rate looming.
High leverage or margin trading is always rigged against you, for now it is basically impossible and stupid to even try this type of trading.

Peace.

#TheWolfThatWins #MtGoxJulyRepayments #Market_Update #ETHETFsApproved

I will show you in this post that no matter how low you think Crypto prices are currently, the early investors(VC) dont care and are in huge profit regardless.

This is a long read but you will learn something from this post, it also includes a trade idea at the end. (Because most will all ask anyways 😂)

I research crypto A LOT, probably to much for my own sanity, i know how the crypto market is getting manipulated and how retail is being used to make VC investors even richer.
Most in Crypto sadly dont understand this, hopefully this post will teach you something.

Thank you to TRimmis for pointing this unlock out for me🤝

In this post i am Using AltLayer as an example.

In 10 days AltLayer has a very important unlock happening, important for the early investors , this is a great example of a much larger problem happening in crypto.
While i am focusing on AltLayer for this post, AltLayer is just one of hundreds of projects that are founded, funded, launched on exchanges , all in a very similar way.
Pro VC, Anti retail.

For reference VC/VCs are venture capital/capitalists ( Investors who fund crypto projects before retail traders can buy them)

Case Study $ALT - AltLayer.

Current price - 0.1329
Current Market cap - $ 146 Million
Fully diluted value - $1.32 Billion
Circulating supply - 11%

For this post i want to focus on Investors(including advisors) and team.

I want to break down how profitable it is starting a project like AltLayer.
As shown in the image above the Team and Investors(Including advisors) have 38.5% of tokens(Total supply) allocated to them.
Team 15%Investors 18.5%Advisors 5%

Before we go further it is important to understand that these projects have a vesting period
A vesting period is a predetermined amount of time that tokens are locked, before this time the tokens should not be allowed to be unlocked, transferred or sold. A vesting period is supposed to protect retail investors from rug pulls and rapid inflation, vesting periods can be split into many unlocks over many years.

I underlined the word "should" because this is not always the case, in projects that are dodgy or where the project team/investors make the decisions, these unlocks can happen whenever the project team want, it was why months ago i told people to sell their PYTH tokens(And i got a lot of hate), the Pyth project team did exactly that, they unlocked their tokens prior to the vesting period to sell at a better price.

After the vesting period tokens will be unlocked and distributed as per the defined allocation breakdown, these unlocks happen in 2 ways, a linear or cliff unlock.
Linear is a slow release of tokens over time, could be days,weeks,months. Cliff unlock is a total unlock on a certain date.Cliff unlocks have far more impact on price as they potentially flood the market with new supply, the larger the unlock % to the current circulating supply, the larger the possible effect.

In 10 days $ALT (AltLayer) has a HUGE cliff unlock coming !👇

684 Million $ALT tokens will be unlocked, an increase of 42% of the current supply, this unlock is worth $86.7 Million

This is the breakdown 👇

I have underlined the token unlocks going to team and investors.
The $ amount of the July 25th unlock (at todays prices)
Team - $23.8 MillionInvestors - $39 MillionAdvisors - $10 Million

This is USD value, this is what they can sell their unlocked tokens for.
Investors and advisors are basically the same thing, so $49 million going to investors in this unlock.
In 10 days the early investors will be able to cash out this $49 Million

This is what VCs paid to invest in AltLayer.👇

Lets break this down.

The TOTAL raised for AltLayer funding was $21.6 Million.
Inicial seed VCs ($7.2M invested) paid $0.008 for their tokens( at current prices they are up 1400% ROI)
Strategic partners($14.4m Invested) paid $0.018 for their tokens (at current prices they are up 576% ROI)
Also please note this $14.4M strategic investment happen in Feb 2024, 5 months ago.
In the July 25th unlock alone the investors will unlock $49 million worth of tokens, this is just one of many future unlocks to come.

AltLayer only launched on Binance 6 months ago.
This is the first cliff unlock for investors, they are unlocking $49 million worth of value on their first unlock, total funding was $21 Million.
As the image above shows, the VCs will still recieve tokens via unlock until mid 2028, on their first unlock alone they have already more than 2x their funding investment.
$21.6 million funded($14 Million of which was 5 months ago) -> $49 million on first unlock.
For uninformed retail traders the current AltLayer prices seem low.
Why?
It is basically a PsyOP and little else.
We have slowly been manipulated to accept that the price tokens trade at in the days-weeks after launch is their fair value, or even that they are undervalued.
Because AltLayer was $0.60 or $0.50 only a couple months ago we now believe that the current price of 0.132 is an absolute gift.
The VCs on AltLayer will make $28 Million(or more) profit on their first unlock , after that they have 4 more years of profitable unlocks to come, this unlock returns their full investment and a large profit, we make it so easy for them.
95% of these projects have little real world usage, their value is solely what retail traders will pay for tokens and how much VCs can make.
Each of these projects have their own diehard fan base, for AltLayer it is probably the people who went all in at $0.50-$0.60 , now they have to tell themselves and others that it is the best project in the world.
Also note that Binance are one of the investors, not only on AltLayer but nearly all other tokens launched on the exchange, they get free/basically free % for launching the project on Binance, they make Billions off it.
Binance rarely, if ever, disclose their funding agreement with these projects, you can decide for yourself why (So i dont get banned)

There is no solution to this until most of Crypto stops supporting these projects.

The tokens from the upcoming Altlayer unlock will be dumped in the days-weeks after the unlock (Or before if they dont respect the vesting period)
The sale of these tokens give early investors a risk free and profitable investment, the next 4 years are all profit.
The problem is the VCs know that many in Crypto are becoming wiser to these VC funded, mostly garbage projects, and to the unlocks.
These tokens could be unlocked prior to the scheduled unlock, price could also be manipulated in the days before and after the unlock so the VCs and Team can get max value when they dump their tokens.

These VCs are already rich, they can afford to hold the tokens after unlock, just because they are unlocked doesnt mean they will be sold, it just makes them transferable to be sold.
With current economic/crypto price uncertainty i feel that the VCs will dump most of their tokens around this unlock.

*Edit* I included a trade idea at the end of this post that i have since removed as it is no longer valid and i dont want it to be misleading, i shorted ALT at 0.16 before the unlock and took profits when price dropped to 0.13.
If you enjoyed this post a like is always appreciated, i put a lot of time and love into these posts.🤙

Peace

#TheWolfThatWins #altsesaon #AltLayer #BinanceSquareFamily 👇

FOMC/Fund rate and high impact data.

I know i posted about this a couple days ago but i cant stress enough how important tomorrow is for Crypto price.
There is no neutal outcome tomorrow, it will either be very Bullish or very Bearish.
The current BTC price is $65 730, i think based on what happens tomorrow it will either hit $70k or $60K tomorrow or in the coming days.
You have no control over this, please dont try predict it, you should strongly consider closing all high leverage and margin trades before tomorrow.

Lets break down Bullish and Bearish scenarios for tomorrow.

ADP non farm change,
This will have a slightly Bullish effect if this reading is above 147k, the labour market is a worry for recession, if this number comes out far lower than expected it will be bearish as this will further fuel recession fears, this data will matter but the higher impact unemployment data comes out on Thursday-Friday.
Employment cost q/q
This will be used to signal inflation, higher employment cost is passed onto consumers, this should be around the 1.0% and wont have as much effect as other readings tomorrow.
Pending home Sales
Pending home sales is a forward looking indication so it is extremely important to gauge future economic health, pending home sales are counted when the contract is signed, the sale of a home effects a large part of the economy, financing cost, morgages, renovations.
The pending home sales have fallen over the last 2 readings(-7.7% and -2.1%) , another bad reading would definitely be bearish, the housing market like the labour market are key indicators used to signal a possible recession.
Tomorrow this reading needs to come out above 1.4% to be Bullish, the higher the reading and the more bullish it will be.

The main event, Funds rate and FOMC press conference.

How this could be Bullish,

If the Fed lowers rates tomorrow this will have an instant bullish effect on the crypto market, it is extremely unlikely as the Fed does not like to spook the market, it would also go against Trumps request(it was more of a warning).
At the time of writing a chance of a Cut is priced at 4.1% on Cme FedWatch, this shows it is extremely unlikely but some are still pricing in the possibility.

The Fed could keep rates at 5.5% and tomorrow could still have a Bullish outcome,
If earlier readings in the day point to a stengthening/stable labour market and housing market this will be the first thing needed for bullish momentum.
Most important is what is said at the Fomc press conference,
If Powell gives clear indication that they will start making cuts in September and plan on 2-3 cuts before the end of year, this will be Bullish, the market expects at least a clear indication of a September cut, if Powell gives indications of a larger cut in September(-50bps) this will increase the bullish effect.

What scares me is the bearish scenario!

The Bearish scenario,

If the labour market readings and home sales data get worse it is getting closer and closer to an imminent recession, as noted the most important labour data comes out on Thursday and Friday.
What scares me most about tomorrow is that the Fed keeps rates at 5.5% and then gives no clear indication of a September Cut.
I dont see how the Fed could possibly do this, what scares me is the political agenda, the "Trump effect"
The stock market and even the crypto market have priced in a September cut, if no clear indication of this is given tomorrow(Should rates be held at 5.5% for July) it will have an extremely bearish effect on crypto price.
Under normal circumstances i would say it is a certainty that Powell would give clear indication of a September cut at very least tomorrow.
With what is happening around this election i think anything is possible, more so because Trump has told Powell to hold rates.
Powell and the Fed should not be swayed by Trumps comments, the US economy is suffering, especially lower income consumers and small businesses.
If Powell does this tomorrow it will be economic self sabotage, nothing less, not for the rich who will be able to weather the storm but for the low income families and small businesses.

Some things to note about the US economy, Powell knows this also👇
I copy and pasted this from a bloomberg article about how interest rates have effected the economy in the last year.

Small businesses,
"The picture is much different for smaller businesses. The default rate on leveraged loans, which typically have variable rates, is projected to rise to a range of 5% to 5.5% this year, according to forecasts from Fitch Ratings. If realized, that would be the highest level since 2009. "

Credit card debt,

" Interest rates for credit cards rose to 22.76% in May, just shy of a record in data back to 1994, Fed data show. Some 2.6% of credit card balances were 60 days past due in the first quarter, reaching a series high in data from the Philadelphia Fed that goes back to 2012.  "

Labour market,
"The number of people who have been out of work for 27 weeks or more, known as long-term unemployed, rose to 1.5 million in June, the most since 2017 with the exception of a temporary spike during the pandemic, said Aaron Terrazas, chief economist for Glassdoor. 
Hiring has become more concentrated to just a few sectors — like healthcare, social assistance and government — a sign that other industries more vulnerable to economic slowdowns are starting to pull back, he said. 
Taken together, the figures raise concerns that the job market could weaken unexpectedly, a turn that would put the overall economy at risk"

Stock Market,

"The S&P 500 has climbed about 25% since the Fed started raising rates in March 2022, adding about $3 trillion to household wealth.  
If the Fed doesn’t start lowering rates soon, however, “the market’s going to be vulnerable,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. It’s “embedded in current stock prices that investors expect rate cuts.”

Housing Market,
"With mortgage rates hovering around 7%, the monthly mortgage payment for someone buying a median priced home climbed to $2,291 in May, up from $1,205 three years earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors. 
Economists expected sales to decline in response to the higher borrowing costs — and they did. “What was unexpected is how powerful the lock-in effect can be if the economy is not in a recession,” said Ralph McLaughlin, senior economist for Realtor.com."

Back to me 🤪,

I included all of the above because it shows an economy that is stuggling, especially lower income families and small businesses, it is the Feds job to act in the best interest of all Americans, the decisions and the implifications of those decisions will have huge impact on the market and the American people.
It is obvious what the Fed should/needs to do, whether or not they will do so or be swayed by political agenda will be seen tomorrow.

Tomorrow is going to be incredibly volatile, please trade safely.

Peace.

#TheWolfThatWins #US_Job_Market_Slowdown #Market_Update #fomc

We are in the eye of the storm, volatility can return at any time.

Things that could have a large effect on crypto price in the coming week,
Any increased conflict in the middle eastUnemployment data on Thursday.The S&P500/Nasdaq and the Nikkei price.The FED or Bank of Japan (BOJ) making emergency policy decisions.

America
This is an extremely quiet week for US economic data, all focus will be on the unemployment data on Thursday, if unemployment reads much higher or much lower then the market will react.
This worldwide sell off in the markets is largely due to bad US economic data, especially the labour market, this weeks reading will be key to show any further signs of weakness, the whole market will be watching this reading.
The only thing that would make the Fed consider an emergency rate cut is if the unemployment reading comes out much higher and leads to further market sell off.
All other US economic concerns are still valid, this week the only major reading for the markets is unemployment(August 8, 12:30pm )

Monitor the S&P500 and Nasdaq.

Japan

Firstly it is important to know that the BOJ and the Japanese government feed off each other but both cant win, Policy decisions that are good for one are bad for the other.
Last week Japan made a surprise interest rate hike to try save the Yen.
Japan has intervened a few times over the last years to stop the Yens freefall, it does this by selling hundreds of Billions worth of US treasuries to buy back their currency to intervene, this only had a short term effect and was basically like burning the money.
The bank of Japan did this to create fear in the market, to try stop people shorting the Yen as the fear of an intervention by the BOJ was always possible.
This had little effect and the market continued to short the Yen and the BOJ threw away hundreds of Billions for no lasting effect.

Last week the BOJ increased interest rates to try save the Yen.

The bank of Japan has held 0% interest rates for nearly 20 years, even negative interest rates.
This has led to trillions of dollars worth of carry trading worldwide.
Carry trading is basically borrowing money with the intention to reinvest it in something else and gain profit (positive carry)
Huge funds and even central banks have been doing this for decades, borrowing money in Japan at 0% and investing around the globe.
The increase in Japans interest rate to 0.25% and the fear of future interest rate hikes have effected this global carry trade.
It is important to note that while many large holders have simply borrowed in Japan at 0% and then invested in US treasuries or other currencies/bonds for a 4-5% return(4-5% positive carry) many other traders use the borrowed funds to open leverage positions.
This is where the danger comes in, if this borrowed money is spread accross the market and leveraged or used as collateral against other open positions then the effect can be far greater.
Many of these leveraged positions are in the stock market (US and Japan) and even in Crypto investments.
Many of these positions are now at risk (negative carry) and the market is selling off due to this.
The interest rate hike created fear in the carry trade market but fears of more hikes in the coming months are the main concern for holders with large position, especially if they are leveraged.

Many large Japanese banks have leveraged positions in higher risk investments!

I have posted before (See post July 7th) about this high risk investment in American CLOs (corporate debt).
This carry trade fallout and US economic worries could have a huge impact on those higher risk/reward trades, if the CLOs start to default then the fallout could be massive for large banks in Japan, it would have a knock on effect for the whole economy.
The Japanese banks are already showing huge warning signs👇

For now we need to monitor the Nikkei and see how it performs in the coming days, in the last Asia session it recovered but since has lost all those gains during the London/NY Sessions.

The largest investor in the Nikkei is the Japanese government.
For the Japanese people the Nikkei is the lifeblood of the economy as many Nikkei related stocks are what make up a large part of their retirement/pension funds or other long term investments.
If the Nikkei declines further then the BOJ might need to once again reduce rates or insure no more hikes are planned in the coming months.
This would once again lead to the YENs value collapsing and for the global carry trade to resume.
It is to much to explain but there is no win-win for the Government of Japan and the Bank of Japan, they have survived and stagnated for 20 years but the effect of higher interest rates globally, most importantly in America has taken its toll.
The Japanese economy is a mess, any decision that helps one part has a negative effect on another part, it is basically the Government/stock market or the BOJ/Yen that will win, they both cant win.
Most important for the next couple days,
Japan,
Tomorrow(Aug 7th,11:50pm UTC+0) the BOJ will give a statement, traders will look to this for information about the current interest rate effect and also the possibility of future rake hikes.
America,
This is an extremely quiet week for high impact US data, on Thursday (Aug 8th, 12:30pm UTC+0) we have unemployment claims.
The unemployment claims could be the catalyst for the next move in the market.
The expected number is 241k, if this number comes out much higher or lower the market will react.
If it comes out far above 241k it will lead to another large sell-off as it will fuel recession worries even more.
If it comes out far below 241k it will be bullish as it will be a sign that previous unemployment numbers might have been elevated due to seasonal jobs or some blame hurricane beryl.
For now, like in many previous weeks, Unemployment will be the key focus and the market mover.
From now until then monitor the Nikkei, that will be the first warning sign of further market collapse, also monitor the SP500 and Nasdaq.
The market is currently taking a breather but any further tensions in the middle east, a bad unemployment reading or further falls in the stock markets(Japan and US) could once again lead to huge pressure and volatility.
What crypto needs now is a good (Low) unemployment number on Thursday, also for no further developments in the middle east.
I have purchased more spot BTC and ETH, i think BTC at current prices is a gift if you are willing to be patient and have the available funds to do so, if it falls more i will buy more, that is my only plan in crypto for now.

For people who trade forex,
If the Nikkei crashes further and the BOJ need to make an emergency decision then short the Yen, if this happens then the USD/YEN will likely go back to 160-170 in the coming months.
Trade Safely.

Peace.

#TheWolfThatWins #BTC☀ #Market_Update #ETHETFsApproved

For anyone who follows me you will know I like to look at the wider market view.

I will first show the more macro trend/sentiment and then what could be effecting the crypto price.
Yesterday’s CPI print and Todays “recession " risk readings have all been pro crypto and pro stocks.
These readings have made a 25bps cut the more likely outcome in September but over the last weeks the market has been gripped by recession or crash fears, todays readings point more to a soft landing (for now)

Most indexes have reacted to this as good news being good news, a sign of economic stability.

The DXY(dollar strength) climbed off a higher likelyhood of a 25bps(not 50+) Septemeber cut, higher interest rates makes the dollar more competitive vs its (DXY) rivals, especially Japan (carry trade).

The S&P500, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Rus2000(Small caps) all gained off these readings.

Gold price saw a sell off which is likely due to the readings over the last 2 days(especially today) pointing to a stronger economy and less need to hold safe haven, non yield bearing, Gold.

So why is crypto stalling ?

Crypto has had a slight recovery off todays news but over the last 2 days it is still down while other indexes have reacted to the macro data in a more positive way.

$BTC News based price movement over the last day 👇

Crypto is obviously in its own category so we can’t just compare it to the stock markets or Gold, i use these as comparisons as it shows wider market sentiment.
Most importantly crypto is more "risk on" than global stocks, I feel that the tensions in the Middle East will still weigh heavily on Crypto price while the situation remains tense.

Another factor is the news of the US Government moving BTC.

I have pointing this out in my previous posts but to refresh, Trump said at the BTC conference that he would not sell seized government BTC.
I also pointed out that this means the current US Gov could just sell the BTC they hold if it was likely Trump would be elected, Trumps comment at the BTC conference seemed like a dare or a challenge to see how the current government would react, the same political game he played by telling Powell not to lower rates.
If the current US administration sell the BTC then Trump will use that as firepower to gain the "crypto vote" , if they hold the BTC then Trump will say it was by his doing, because he told them to.

Important to note

The Bitcoin moved by the US Gov was moved to a Coinbase account.
In 2019 Coinbase purchased the custody arm of Xapo Bank.
Coinbase are the largest custodian of BTC in the world, they hold Bitcoin for many of the large Bitcoin ETF funds and other large clients.
These Bitcoin (keys) are held across the world in off grid, military grade, bomb proof bunkers and includes a vast array of other security measures, Billions have been spent on securing Bitcoin for large holders.
I am including these facts because the US Gov might not intend to sell the BTC they have moved, it could simply be that they are moving them to cold storage with Coinbase custody.
I do feel that if Trump is likely to win or wins the election then the current administration might dump their BTC holdings, for now it would serve little purpose to do so as the election is still close and the "crypto vote" matters to much.
These Bitcoin moves will be used as a Political game in the coming months and create more uncertainty in the market.
The liquidity/open interest in the Bitcoin market is low at the moment so the threat of this sell pressure (Us Gov, final Mt.Gox payments) and also tensions in the Middle East are holding back BTC price movement.

Final thoughts,
The readings over the last 2 days have given the market a sigh of relief when it comes to recession fears (for now), now large holders will start to price in higher interest rates again.
The global market is not stable by any means, these readings just give a short term pause to these worries, the market will still be uncertain as it now goes back to pricing in higher interest rates over recession fears, this can all change quickly with future readings, it is a temporary shift in focus.
The US data (in a vaccum) from the last 2 days should have a mildly bullish effect on Crypto, that being said any news or increased tensions in the Middle East or Gov/Mt.Gox sell pressure will hold far more weight (short term) for Bitcoin and crypto as volume and open interest is low.
From now until next week Wednesday (21st Augusts, FOMC minutes) there is pretty clear sailing in regards to economic data.

Keep and eye on the news.

Trade safely.

Peace.

#BecomeCreator #TheWolfThatWins #Market_Update #MarketDownturn

Sadly but most importantly for short term Crypto price,

It is being reported that tensions in the Middle East escalated earlier.
The severity or risk of further escalations will hold more short term weight for "risk on" crypto than anything else.
I don’t post about politics and conflict, please monitor this yourself if you are short term trading.

“When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace.” ― Jimi Hendrix.

The economic calendar looks pretty uneventful until Thursday-Friday.

For those who don’t want to read the boring stuff I put final thoughts at the end.

Japan

There could be market shock triggers if Japan CPI data comes out higher, especially by a lot.

The most important reading will be the Tokyo CPI on Thursday, if these readings come out much higher and show inflation is increasing in Japan it could once again spook the carry trade market, if inflation is increasing then it will become more likely Japan will increase interest rates (Bad for the Yen carry trade).

America

On Friday Powell basically confirmed rate cuts will start in September, the market already had this mostly priced in.
What Powell said on Friday did not drastically change what the market had already priced in for September.

A September cut (25/50bps) is still priced the same as it was a week ago.👇

There has been a slight increase in the chance of up to 75bps cuts over the September/November meetings👇.

The market still anticipates a 25bps cut in September and November with a combined total of 100bps cuts by the end of December.👇

These odds change on a daily basis, they will be data dependent.

US data this week.👇

Lower impact,

There are a lot of medium impact readings this week (Orange), some will effect market sentiment if they come out far above or below the forecast, most will not have a huge impact on market sentiment.
Consumer Confidence could move the market if it gives a shock reading, it has been pretty consistent over the last 2 readings, only shock readings will move the market, shock readings do happen.👇

On Thursday the Prelim GDP q/q comes out, this is the second reading and is not as impactful as the advance reading, it is expected to come out at 2.8% as forecast.

High impact,
Thursday - Unemployment Claims and pending home sales,
Last week the market seemed to shrug off the fact 818000 fewer jobs were created from April 2023-May 2024, i guess that the jobs market must have been overheated like the Fed stated.
The unemployment data has come out slightly lower than forecast over the last 3 weeks to halt recession fears for now, one very bad reading could test market sentiment once again.
Pending home sales on Thursday could also affect the market if they give a shock reading, the housing market is a key economic health indicator and pending home sales is forward looking.

Friday - Core PCE m/m,
PCE is the FEDs preferred gauge of inflation, most importantly core PCE (excluding food and energy).
The market will focus heavily on this reading and react to it.
PCE is one of the key factor the FED uses when deciding on Policy.
The forecast reading is 0.2%
If this comes out above 0.2% it will be bearish as it will show higher than expected inflation.
If it comes out at 0.2% - 0.1% it will be Bullish, if it gives a shock reading below that then it could point to a slowing economy and spark recession fears.

Final Thoughts,

I see no economic reasons why Crypto should not be Bullish until or beyond Thursday, shock data from Japan or America on Thursday-Friday could change sentiment.
A lot of what Powell said on Friday was already priced in so I don’t expect Crypto will go parabolic or even close, i expect moderate bullish conditions.
For Crypto the highest impact readings will be unemployment, PCE and possibly the Tokyo CPI in Japan, the best result for Crypto would be lower readings on all (PCE not to shock much lower)
Open interest and Fear and greed is climbing which shows liquidity is coming back to crypto.

Important to note,
Any increased tensions in the Middle East will effect Crypto sentiment more than economic data, my macro view is based on economic data not geopolitical tensions, i am not a short term trader, if you are short term trading then monitor these events closely.We are nearing elections so politics are always a factor for crypto price, this includes the US Government moving its BTC for whatever reason as it has done in past weeks.On Wednesday Nvidia earnings come out for the second quarter, this will have a huge effect on the Nvidia price and the stock market indexes, it could effect Crypto(the butterfly effect).

I would urge you not to high leverage/margin in current market conditions, Crypto might be calm/slightly bullish for now but there are many factors that we have no power to control that could change crypto sentiment in an instant.

Trade Safely.

Peace.

#TheWolfThatWins #Market_Update #CryptoMarketMoves #BTC☀

Cypto sentiment/price is stuck between a rock and hard place , the rock being the economic uncertainty and the hard place being the geopolitical tensions, both are not good for "risk on" assets like crypto.

As is so often the case, crypto price direction will be largely effected by US economic data or other outside factors in the coming days.
In the coming days crypto needs pro interest rate cut data without that data pointing to an imminent recession.

Core PPI m/m (excluding food and energy) and PPI m/m both just came out lower.
PPI is the change in price of finished goods and services sold by producers, it is used as a gauge of inflation.

This is a good reading for interest rate cuts and therefore Crypto price, These PPI readings show inflationary pressures are easing and further support an interest rate cut in September, possibly a 50bps cut.
Crypto and market indexes like the S&P500, Nasdaq ,Nikkei, RUS2000 all had a mildly Bullish reaction to this reading.
PPI is not usually a huge market mover, the market will react far more to the data coming out in the next couple days.
Most importantly for "Risk on" assets like Crypto there is currently the threat of further escalation in tensions in the Middle East.
The tensions in the Middle east, the uncertainty over recession fears and the Yen carry trade unwind are still leading to a more "risk off" sentiment.
The price of Gold (Safe Haven asset) reflects this.👇 , Gold price is near ATHs.

For "Risk on" assets like Crypto any escalation or retaliation by Iran or its proxies will cause crypto price to fall, the larger the retaliation, the more likely it will lead to further conflict, this will lead to further "risk off" sentiment.
We need this conflict to come to an end for humanity, that is far more important than crypto price, it is sad to have to include conflict/war into your investment or trading strategy.

High Impact readings in the coming days.

Wednesday Aug 14th (Inflation fears)

The Wednesday CPI data will have a huge impact on price if there are any shock readings, i dont expect any shock readings, the actual numbers are expected to be as forecast with a possibility of softer readings (lower) as shelter costs started to fall in June and these make up around 30% of the CPI number.
If these numbers come out lower it will be Bullish for Crypto, if they come out higher (especially much higher) it will be bearish for Crypto.

A September rate cut is priced at 100%, the CPI data will effect how the market prices in a 50bps cut and not just a 25bps cut.
Lower CPI readings support a 50bps(or more) September cut.
Higher CPI readings would make a 25bps cut more likely (for now).

Thursday 15th Aug (Recession fears)

On Thursday we have Core Retail sales (excl Automobiles), Retail sales, Unemployment claims and the Empire state and Philly manufactoring index.
All of these will be looked at for recession fears.
Bad news is only bad news for any of these readings.
These readings are much harder to predict and its where shock readings could effect the market.
5-6 months ago the market looked for these readings to show a slowing economy, bad news is good news.
Now that is the total opposite, the market is looking for strong readings to show a recession is not likely.
What Crypto needs is higher retail sales and lower unemployment numbers.

Friday 16th
On Friday we have building permits and Prelim (most important) University of Michigan (UOM) inflation expectations and consumer sentiment.
Consumer sentiment will be the most important, consumer sentiment is how surveyed consumers feel about the current and future economic environment, it is important as consumers make up the majority of overall economic activity.
Over the last 5 readings consumer sentiment has come out lower than expected, this shows increasing economic pressure and uncertainty felt by consumers.
These readings on Friday will be important, more so if they are in line with data that is released on Wednesday and Thursday, they will be used more for confirmation of market sentiment.

Final thoughts,

The best case scenario for Crypto in the coming days would be for a de-escalation in tension in the Middle east, lower than expected CPI readings on Wednesday followed by stronger than expected retail sales and lower unemployment on Thursday.
None of these readings or factors can be viewed in a vacuum.
Good CPI data tomorrow could lead to a short term Bullish rally but that will quickly end for Crypto if anything happens in the Middle East or if retail sales or unemployment give a very bad reading Thursday.
Market crash worries might have eased but recession fears are still valid, it will take a few good readings for those fears to subside, in the coming days the retail sales and unemployment data will be where the market looks for recession worries.
The sideways action in Crypto over the last few days shows the uncertainty around Crypto, this is due to its "Risk on" status, current economic and geopolitical tensions are acting as an anchor for crypto price.
Also note the full effect of the Japan carry trade unwind could still effect the market, this was a global event that effected Trillions worth of positions across the globe, i am sure many large holders and banks are still in crisis mode over this.
For the technicians out there we can clearly see that a strong level of support has now become resistance on the daily crypto market cap chart.👇

For now a sustained breakthrough of this level of resistance will be determined mostly by the US economic data released in the coming days.
Price action could be volatile in the coming days, especially around and in the hours that follow high impact data releases.
Trade safely.

Peace.

#TheWolfThatWins #Market_Update #CryptoMarketMoves #MarketDownturn