I mentioned in an earlier post that if the market sees another large downturn i will be looking to buy projects in the Defi/re-staking narrative within the Ethereum or Eigen ecosystem.
I have narrowed it down to 5 projects.
Ondo, Rez, Omni, Etherfi, ZRO.
I have included price targets for each later in the post.
My main target range is 410-450 billion in the Total 3 market cap (Market cap excl BTC/ETH)
The market would need to drop another 15-20% to reach my target zone (Shown below)

A 20% drop in the total Defi market cap would also see a drop to a previous level of resistance which might become an area of support👇

The market cap might not drop to this point, I am in no rush to accumulate the projects i have listed above, if we don’t see another downturn in the market then my plans will be put on hold.
I think with the current economic uncertainty and other factors there is a chance the price targets I have set could be hit in the comings weeks-months.
I have set price targets for the projects i have chosen to accumulate at roughly 15-20% below their current market price (ZRO 20%-30% lower)

Before we go further i just want to explain why i have chosen these projects.
My main reason is because they dont have large cliff unlocks for VCs in the next 3-6 months (Shown later)They are all part of a narrative (Defi, re-staking, liquid re-staking) that i believe will be pushed in the coming months, probably towards the end of 2024.They are all VC and exchange backed, they will receive a lot of hype in the paid for media and will be promoted by exchanges.I have done a lot of research into re-staking, mostly in regards to Eigen and Ethereum, it is why i have not included tokens from other chains.

My plans are simple, if price drops into my target range I will buy SPOT.
I have 2 price targets.
With the funds I have allocated for each project I will allocate 30% of that at the higher price target, if price falls further I will use the remaining 70% at the lower price target.
My total allocation for this will only make up for a small % of my crypto portfolio, it is higher risk-reward speculation.

Project by project.
For reference,
When I mention cliff unlocks below I am referring to unlocks that go to investors, core contributors, advisors, strategic partners (Holders who will likely sell), these unlocks will also increase the circulating supply of tokens.

Ondo
Price targets,
Upper-$0.4950
Lower -$0.462

Ondo Cliff unlocks start at the end of Jan 2025👇

ether.fi
Price targets,
Upper-$1.07
Lower-$1.005

ether.fi cliff unlocks start at the end of March 2025👇

Omni

Price targets,
Upper- $5.8
Lower-$5.5

Omni cliff unlocks start at the end of April 2025👇

Renzo(Rez)
Price targets,
Upper- $0.0288
Lower-$0.0271

Renzo cliff unlocks start end of April 2025👇

LayerZero(ZRO)
My accumulation range for ZRO is lower than the projects above, i feel it is more overpriced.

Price targets,
Upper- $2.625
Lower-$2.28

ZRO cliff unlocks start in June 2025👇

These are just my plans, I am not encouraging you to do the same.
I am not using the rent money to invest in these projects.
I don’t believe any of these projects are a breakthrough for crypto, they are made so that VCs and exchanges can profit off retail fomo, i am just playing the zero sum game.
I don’t have any timeframe for holding, it will depend on the market, if my buy targets are hit and the market rallies and my investment has 2-3x I will take part/full profits.
If sh1t hits the fan (economy, conflict) then i will just cut my losses, i wont just hold if there is a clear sign that the market could drop a lot lower.
This is neither a get rich quick idea nor a long term belief in any of these projects, it is solely about my cynical view of the direction crypto is heading/being led.
I am sure people will say there are other projects that might be better for whatever reason, this is just my plan (Based on research).

If you found this informative a like is always appreciated 🤙

Peace.

#etherreum #ZRO #REZ #altcycle #CryptoMarketMoves

A month ago the market crashed, this was partly due to the unemployment rate, non-farm data and manufacturing PMI fuelling recession fears.
This data is once again coming out next week (03-06 Sept).
Only a month ago we witnessed the perfect storm for the global speculation market.
Over 3 days, July 31st-August 2nd, the market went from spooked to outright panic.
Wednesday July 31,
The catalyst was Japan increasing interest rates, that was followed by the Fed holding interest rates at 5.5%.
Thursday-Friday, 01-02 Aug,
The market panicked as the unemployment rate hit 4.3% and triggered the Sahm rule
The Non-farm employment came out 60k lower than forecast.
Manufacturing PMI read lower once again.
The bad news was very bad news!
The market reacted.
The VIX(volatility index) skyrocketed, reaching levels only seen during Covid and the 2008 financial crash.

The global stock markets also witnessed a fire-sale.
The S&P500, the Nasdaq and The Nikkei all sold off.
Notably all have since recovered all those loses.👇

The Russell 2000 which is an index of US small-cap stocks also sold off and has also mostly recovered.

I feel that the Rus2000 is the most closely correlated stock Index to Bitcoin or Crypto when it comes to economic sentiment, Small cap companies are more effected by restrictive monetary policy, higher borrowing cost or economic worries.
Bitcoin and the Rus2000 shared similar price action in the weeks before July 31st and then shared a similar crash, The Rus2000 like other indexes has recovered far better than Bitcoin or Crypto in general.

A lot changes in a month, 30 days ago we saw a fire-sale and widespread panic across the market, now the whole market is pricing in soft landing.
The DXY (dollar strength) plummeted as the market priced in 50bps cuts in September.
Recent data has made a 25bps cut more likely and the DXY has recovered slightly.

A 25bps cut in September is now priced at 70%.👇

All of the above is pointing to a soft landing.

Crypto has not shared in this sentiment.

Last week i posted that i expected mildly Bullish conditions, i expected the Total Crypto market cap to test the upper part of the channel in the image shown above (Total).
I was clearly wrong.(Sorry)
My view was based on how the wider market was taking the economic data and narrative, crypto, like stocks, is just speculative investing, crypto is just more unregulated and higher up the risk curve.
So is crypto undervalued, or is it the canary in the coal mine?🤔
Since March a lot of the price action in crypto has been determined by data that points to interest rate cuts, recently that has turned to data that points to interest rate cuts without a recession.
The data over the last month has shown that a recession is not likely, also that the long awaited easing cycle will begin soon.
Great news for crypto…
So why is Crypto not Bullish?
Going by wider market sentiment it should be, even if retail has been fleeced constantly over the last 3-4 months, large investors should be buying BTC.
Maybe crypto is just lagging...
I personally think that other clear warning signs are still showing that things might not be as “soft landing” as they seem.
The Yen carry trade has resumed, has that money not filtered its way back to the crypto market yet?
Were emergency steps taken by central banks/large bank and large funds to hide the full damage of the Yen carry trade unwind?
Does the market have a false sense of security?
Currently, all things considered, Bitcoin is either undervalued or the wider (stock) market is overvalued.
What happened last month has mostly been forgotten, trillions were wiped out in days, margin calls worldwide, there was definitely widespread collateral damage, until now that has been swept under the rug.
If a soft landing and the start of an easing cycle is the base case for large investors then crypto should be bullish, especially BTC and ETH through ETF investments.
The BTC halving has long passed, the sell pressure from all the bankrupt funds or governments has mostly ended.
If large investors are not buying BTC "at a discount" there must be a reason for it, maybe the money printers and the fiscal stimulus is only able to prop up the stock market for now.
FED-> Large Banks -> Stocks.
The narrative is all soft landing, the major problem now could be the labour market.
The data that fuelled the market crash only 30 days ago will never once again come out this week 👇

Monday is labor day in America, it is a federal holiday, the stock market is closed.
From Tuesday-Friday all readings could have a huge impact on market sentiment and effect the likelihood of 25bps or 50bps cut on the 18th September.
The highest impact readings will be the Non-farm employment change and the Unemployment rate on Friday, these will have a massive impact on market sentiment, and they will also have a huge impact on the chance of a 50bps cut in September.
A 50bps cut is not good for the market if it shows the Fed are acting out of desperation, the current market sentiment is for a 25bps cut in September with future cuts to come, all part of a soft landing.
A bad reading in non-farm(much lower) or the unemployment rate(4.3% or higher) will once again spook the market and fuel recession fears.
Each reading this week has the potential to move the market, the main focus is on the labour market but the Manufacturing or Services PMI will also effect market sentiment and recession fears, especially manufacturing which is below 50 and has consistently declined since April👇

So what’s the play?

For me there is no short term play.
The labour market data is too hard to predict, also it is too easy manipulated.
Just over a week ago the jobs data was revised down by 818 000 from April 2023-May 2024, clearly the jobs data is not accurate.
This close to elections anything is possible, the whole market is now looking to the labour market to confirm a soft landing, Trump and Harris will also be looking to use it in their election campaign
Lower unemployment will be good for Harris, Higher unemployment will be good for Trump, it is a key economic and political talking point.
There is a reason that Crypto is not sharing in the sentiment of other markets, if things were as good as the narrative is saying then large holders would be accumulating.
For now patience is key.
I own Spot, mostly BTC, i have skin in the game, i am happy to see how this week plays out.
If you want to be Bullish/Bearish i would wait to see how the Manufacturing PMI comes out first, it will hold the most weight for the sentiment until Friday.
If we see another large drop in ALTS I will purchase tokens in the re-staking/defi narrative (Mid-Long term spot)
My target range is shown in the Total 3 image below👇 (Market Cap excl BTC+ETH)

Some tokens i am monitoring.👇

I don’t own or endorse any of these projects, most are garbage with little use case, i just think (based on a lot of research) that the next VC push will be in this narrative, retail will follow.
I am not looking to buy any of these tokens now, only if the market sees another large drop.
If price drops into my range for accumulation I will purchase spot, I will not hold indefinitely, I am not a 50x trader, I will hold until I am happy with the returns, always taking into account economic factors and other macro/fundamentals.
This is just my opinion, I am just sharing my plan/idea, as I already mentioned I don’t think most/any of these projects bring anything valuable to crypto, they are mostly VC trash, this is all about playing and trying to beat the zero sum game.
DYOR/NFA bla bla👍

"The big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting." - Charlie Munger.

Dont be this guy👇

Trade Safely.

Peace.

Update 02/09.
From what I have read,
The Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 47.3%.
Services PMI as forecast (51.3) or 0.2% lower.
Unemployment rate 4.2%.
Hourly earnings 0.3%.
NON-Farm 155k-160K.
Unemployment claims 230k.

All of the above could be far off, it is just what i have read.
All the jobs data can be manipulated, higher or lower, it happens (Politics).

#CryptoMarketMoves #SahmRule #Market_Update #TelegramCEO #BTC☀

This title might sound like clickbait, it is really not, all things considered.

The labour market data tomorrow has the potential to skyrocket volatility.

Any shock readings will have a huge impact on crypto price, that could be a Bullish or bearish impact, the market is looking for confirmation of a soft landing in this data, the numbers will need to be good to turn the current crypto sentiment bullish.
If the numbers come out as forecast it could still be bearish for “risk on” crypto.
The Crypto market needs a big win in the jobs data to increase the appetite for higher risk assets like crypto.
So far this week the data has been mostly bad, the pesky manufacturing and jobs data is not conforming to the FEDs soft loft landing narrative.
Since Tuesday the markets have sold off, there are a variety of factors that have contributed to this, mostly it leads back to economic concerns.
Earlier the decent Services PMI slowed the sell pressure, also the weekly unemployment claims didn’t shock, they remained bad, just not fire sale bad.
If the labour data is bad tomorrow (not over inflated), the fire sale could begin.
The employment data coming out tomorrow is from the BLS (Bureau labour statistics)
The BLS are the same government agency who revised jobs down by 818,000 a couple weeks ago.(April 2023-May 2024)
How accurate tomorrow’s data will be is anyone’s guess.
Something worth noting,👇
The commissioner for labour statistics at the BLS (Government agency) is Dr.Erika McEntarfer.
She was nominated for the role by Joe Biden in July 2023, she was confirmed for the role this year, January 2024.
Being nominated by a president is normal, what is not normal is how the jobs data has been consistently inflated and then later revised down whilst Erika McEntarfer has been commissioner.
In her time as acting/official commissioner the combined monthly job reports from April 2023-May 2024 was later revised down by 818,000 (The lowest revision downwards in 15 years)
These previously unrevised (inflated) jobs numbers have been consistently cited by Biden and Powell in the past year to show the US economy is strong.
The revised numbers are swept under the rug.

Every jobs report over the last year has later been revised down (never up🤔), somehow the market still takes the initial jobs reports at face value as if they are accurate, recent history has shown they are far from accurate.
I am sure tomorrow will be no different, the market will take the numbers at face value.
As mentioned before, all readings tomorrow are reported by the BLS, I highlight this because they are the source, if they can manipulate one set of data it is likely they can manipulate all data they report.

Who knows if tomorrow’s numbers will accurately reflect what is really going on in the US labour market.
The BLS, like the FED or the SEC are all supposed to be non-partisan and not swayed by politics.
Let’s not even pretend that is even remotely true.
At this point nothing would shock me, tomorrow’s jobs numbers are critical for the Fed, the economy and the elections.
Trying to predict the outcome is basically trying to predict how corrupt the system is, we all know these jobs numbers are not accurate, also the inaccuracy is always higher.
The elections are near, people in power will want to keep their jobs after the elections, I am sure a lot of political allegiances are being made.
Joe Biden has been ousted by the Dems, who knows if the people he put in power (like the BLS commissioner) were allied to him or the democrats, who knows if they have switched allegiances.
All of the key figures at government agencies are backing a horse in this race, whether that be on the side-line or through manipulating data is just speculation.
Basically for the election campaign,
Harris needs the jobs data to be good tomorrow, much higher non-farm, lower unemployment rate.Trump needs the data to be accurate and not be manipulated.

From the research I have done, it is predicted the numbers will be mostly as forecast,
Average Earning 0.3%
Non-Farm 155k-160kUnemployment rate 4.2%

It would not shock me to see a Non-farm number that is way off, around 100k-120k (more accurate) or even inflated as high as 200k-250k (there could be some lipstick left for this pig)
Trying to predict any continued price action before or around this data is near impossible.
We might have volatility before the NYSE closes, later the Asia markets will try front run (anticipate) what they think the London/NY sessions will do tomorrow based on the jobs data.
Tomorrow is Friday, this will increase the volatility throughout the day as large funds react to the data and balance their positions before the market closes.
It is not worth trying to predict the outcome of tomorrow with high leverage or margin.
I am 100% sure we will see large whipsaw price action in the lead up and following the jobs report.
There is a lot of liquidity within 2k of the current Bitcoin price, it is primed for large traders to manipulate.
Volume and open interest is low, any whale manipulation could have a large effect on short term price.

Trade Safely

Peace ✌️

P.S If you like my posts then please give them a like, it helps me know if my posts are helpful and worth the time I put into them.🤙
I might get restricted for farming likes now 😂

#NFPWatch #USDataImpact #CryptoMarketMoves #Market_Update #BTC☀

3-7 day trade idea (Short)

Short price 0.4905

I have been monitoring this trade idea for a couple days.

The funding rate was terrible so i waited until now to short.

My trade,
0.4905 Short
2x Leverage
TP at around 30-40% ROI.

It’s not a get rich quick trade idea.🙏

There is a large cliff unlock happening in just under 2 days, +16% circulating supply.
Most of the unlock is going to holders who will likely sell within days-weeks of their unlock.
I like to short before unlock, i believe some of these project teams unlock prior to vesting schedules.
The last cliff unlock on 01 August was the same size as the unlock coming on 01 September.
This was the price action.👇

I think it offers a +EV short using low leverage/margin, if you are willing to hold for around 3-7 days.
Sometimes these unlocks are felt in the days before the unlock or days-week after the unlock, in sideways conditions it usually drives down price within 1-2 weeks.
I don’t tag these posts so hopefully people who follow me will already know my trading philosophy and mentality, low leverage 1-3x and only a small % of your funds.
I look to make 20-40% ROI on these trades and take profits, if you high leverage then you could panic or get liquidated before the trade idea plays out.
These low cap projects are easily manipulated and price can be volatile around unlocks.
If you want to be safe you could wait until PCE comes out later (12:30pm UTC+0), if PCE is lower than forecast then the crypto market might rally before the NY stock exchange closes for the week.

Peace.

Sadly but most importantly for short term Crypto price,

It is being reported that tensions in the Middle East escalated earlier.
The severity or risk of further escalations will hold more short term weight for "risk on" crypto than anything else.
I don’t post about politics and conflict, please monitor this yourself if you are short term trading.

“When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace.” ― Jimi Hendrix.

The economic calendar looks pretty uneventful until Thursday-Friday.

For those who don’t want to read the boring stuff I put final thoughts at the end.

Japan

There could be market shock triggers if Japan CPI data comes out higher, especially by a lot.

The most important reading will be the Tokyo CPI on Thursday, if these readings come out much higher and show inflation is increasing in Japan it could once again spook the carry trade market, if inflation is increasing then it will become more likely Japan will increase interest rates (Bad for the Yen carry trade).

America

On Friday Powell basically confirmed rate cuts will start in September, the market already had this mostly priced in.
What Powell said on Friday did not drastically change what the market had already priced in for September.

A September cut (25/50bps) is still priced the same as it was a week ago.👇

There has been a slight increase in the chance of up to 75bps cuts over the September/November meetings👇.

The market still anticipates a 25bps cut in September and November with a combined total of 100bps cuts by the end of December.👇

These odds change on a daily basis, they will be data dependent.

US data this week.👇

Lower impact,

There are a lot of medium impact readings this week (Orange), some will effect market sentiment if they come out far above or below the forecast, most will not have a huge impact on market sentiment.
Consumer Confidence could move the market if it gives a shock reading, it has been pretty consistent over the last 2 readings, only shock readings will move the market, shock readings do happen.👇

On Thursday the Prelim GDP q/q comes out, this is the second reading and is not as impactful as the advance reading, it is expected to come out at 2.8% as forecast.

High impact,
Thursday - Unemployment Claims and pending home sales,
Last week the market seemed to shrug off the fact 818000 fewer jobs were created from April 2023-May 2024, i guess that the jobs market must have been overheated like the Fed stated.
The unemployment data has come out slightly lower than forecast over the last 3 weeks to halt recession fears for now, one very bad reading could test market sentiment once again.
Pending home sales on Thursday could also affect the market if they give a shock reading, the housing market is a key economic health indicator and pending home sales is forward looking.

Friday - Core PCE m/m,
PCE is the FEDs preferred gauge of inflation, most importantly core PCE (excluding food and energy).
The market will focus heavily on this reading and react to it.
PCE is one of the key factor the FED uses when deciding on Policy.
The forecast reading is 0.2%
If this comes out above 0.2% it will be bearish as it will show higher than expected inflation.
If it comes out at 0.2% - 0.1% it will be Bullish, if it gives a shock reading below that then it could point to a slowing economy and spark recession fears.

Final Thoughts,

I see no economic reasons why Crypto should not be Bullish until or beyond Thursday, shock data from Japan or America on Thursday-Friday could change sentiment.
A lot of what Powell said on Friday was already priced in so I don’t expect Crypto will go parabolic or even close, i expect moderate bullish conditions.
For Crypto the highest impact readings will be unemployment, PCE and possibly the Tokyo CPI in Japan, the best result for Crypto would be lower readings on all (PCE not to shock much lower)
Open interest and Fear and greed is climbing which shows liquidity is coming back to crypto.

Important to note,
Any increased tensions in the Middle East will effect Crypto sentiment more than economic data, my macro view is based on economic data not geopolitical tensions, i am not a short term trader, if you are short term trading then monitor these events closely.We are nearing elections so politics are always a factor for crypto price, this includes the US Government moving its BTC for whatever reason as it has done in past weeks.On Wednesday Nvidia earnings come out for the second quarter, this will have a huge effect on the Nvidia price and the stock market indexes, it could effect Crypto(the butterfly effect).

I would urge you not to high leverage/margin in current market conditions, Crypto might be calm/slightly bullish for now but there are many factors that we have no power to control that could change crypto sentiment in an instant.

Trade Safely.

Peace.

#TheWolfThatWins #Market_Update #CryptoMarketMoves #BTC☀

Ladies and gentleman if you think you work hard then think again, i am going to show you the most overworked man on the planet.

I am already warned and restricted (less views), this post might get me banned, the truth hurts.

Firstly this is VERY important to note 👇

For non-English speakers (If you dont understand the image above),
Badges/check marks are used to determine the account belongs to the person they represent and to help retail traders make knowledgeable choices about who they follow and interact with.👍

For Binance to bestow (Binance wording) people or accounts with a check mark they must pass the verification process, this includes a photo I.D and facial recognition.👇

If you are a new or uninformed retail trader and log on to square you might be met with this friendly guy, a Crypto Expert and he has a check mark.

He is also number 3 on the leaderboard 🥳🥳 (dont worry if you forget he will remind you 20 times per day, vote vote vote.)

He has been very busy on Square.👇

He has made over 3300 posts in just over 2 months, thats around 50 per day!

Feel free to read the Binance terms or the square terms/community guidelines, in their terms/guidelines it clearly states that you are not allowed to spam post or post in a manner that would influence square users.
The square/community terms also state you are not allowed to post misleading articles that cannot be backed up with facts or proof.
There are also many terms about influencing the behaviour of square users by farming for likes, shares and so on.
Bullishbanter does all of the above of a daily basis.
This has just become increasingly worse as many "top voices" are pushing for the top spots on the "coveted" binance creator leaderboard.
I have been censored/restricted for including my X profile in a post, my posts are moved to the back page (less views)👇

You will always find Bullishbanter on the front page of square, i guess he has not done anything to break the community guidelines, his account/posts are clearly not restricted.
I have never promoted anything on Square (or elsewhere), this includes not having any binance campaign promotional tags on my posts.
Maybe because I speak the truth and I don’t push/promote the "binance family" narrative or promotions is why I don’t get the same preferential treatment other "binance family" accounts do.

Anyways moving on.

He also has an X account (I cant share the full image or i will be banned)

Binance KOL ☝️ Key opinion leader - a person who’s opinion holds sway over a large group of people

His X posts are also retweeted by a few other top square posters with square check marks.
He seems to attract very beautiful people on X , these beautiful people comment about how amazing he is and retweet his posts, they are clearly not fake X accounts, it’s just a coincidence they all have the exact same style of X profile and they are unbelievable beautiful.

He also has a telegram. (I erased his @ from the image because I don’t want to promote this)

He spam posts all day, many of his posts are parabolic Bullish 1 minute then followed by market crash fears a few minutes or hours later, mostly just spam without justification or any conscious.

Also he seems to target the Pakastani community and he knows where 90% of his followers come from...how does he have this information?

He posts blatant lies about how he went from rags to riches in a year trading ALT coins, and he will share how he did it.👇 (One of many examples)

He degrades his followers to spamming " voted voted voted "or something similar in his comments section in the hopes they might get some type of red packet reward.
I tested this myself, twice, on 2 different posts, i did the task, i typed exactly what he asked or hinted towards, i never received anything, maybe i am just unlucky😕

1430 replies on this post alone, 99.9% of which are people looking for some type of red packet reward. Also it says “you will get a red packet”, I didn’t , surely offering rewards for a task must be binding?
Read his posts, he constantly tells his followers they are responsible, yes responsible, for 5 votes per day and must get their family to vote, for what the chance they get a $0.01 red packet reward?
He is preying on poor and desperate people, even telling them to get their families involved to vote for him.
He calls his followers family and says he loves them but it’s all for his gain, it’s narcissistic and a scam.
If he wins the square awards it will enable him to leverage that as trust, maybe in outside paid groups.

Is this the binance square family?

Is this good for retail crypto?

The circle of death for uninformed retail traders on square,
They trust the garbage these check marked (verified) accounts post about and when they go broke they are reduced to basically begging for money in the comments and being bullied by constant posts/pressure to do a task for these account holders, it is sickening and immoral !!
I know this breaks numerous binance square terms already, nothing is done, why?
This is a poster who is on the front page of square always, unless you block him you will see his posts all day, every day.
I think it is clear to see that this is terrible for uninformed retail traders, its spam, misinformation, its manipulation and its predatory.
It needs to be stopped!

Now we could just end this post here but where would the fun in that be...

So before i go i just have one more question.

Now this could be nothing.

I will let you decide...

Remember he has a check mark, the account is verified!

So will the real bullish banter please stand up?

Ye its probably nothing right.....

Check marked account.

Binance KOL, 106k followers.

Number 3 on the leaderboard.

Welcome to Binance square 👍

Peace

#TheWolfThatWins #scamriskwarning #BinanceSquareFamily #TelegramCEO

Firstly i expect mild/moderate Bullish conditions until Thursday.
After Thursday sentiment will become data/Powell related.
The basket of economic data last week was good for the global stock market but it took crypto a couple days to share in the Bullish sentiment.
I imagine the lag in crypto sentiment was mostly due to talks around a cease fire in the Middle East being held on Friday.
The ceasefire proposal terms have been given to both Iran and Israel, what they both decide is yet to be seen.
I expect stock market indexes and Gold might see some profit taking to start the week but Bitcoin/Crypto has not seen similar gains over the last week, we might see some profit taking overall to start the Asia session but after I expect the week will start Bullish, this could continue until US economic data/news on Thursday/Friday which could affirm or change market sentiment.

The week ahead,

I have included the China interest rate decision because a lot of "hype" posters on square/social media post garbage about this.

Last month when China cut rates the talking heads were saying how this led to parabolic BTC price in previous years, they didn’t mention this was when China had BTC exchanges and BTC was legal(Both are illegal now)
I dont mean this as FUD, its just an example of why you should not take hype stories at face value, especially in crypto.

The US data/Powell and the Fed this week,

Firstly i want to say that the only reason i feel Bullish is because i know the market is quick to forget, the media push the narrative and the market reacts.
The global mainstream media is once again Bullish, soft landing is now the likely path, the Japan carry trade has resumed (more borrowed money for US stocks and even Crypto), Large banks like Goldman Sachs have cut their recession risk to 20% (based on 1 weeks worth of data)
The worldwide economy is like an old wooden boat, it’s rotting from the inside but when it springs a leak the central banks just patch the hole and put a new coat of paint on it and the market accepts it’s “like new” and jumps aboard.
I feel we could see a Bullish start to the week because until Thursday there is very little that could expose the rot and change the temporary narrative.👇

Firstly on Wednesday the FOMC minutes will be released, these are the minutes for the last meeting, the points and reasons of why the Fed held rates, they will be important to understand why the FED held rates and what they need to see for them to lower them in September, I don’t expect huge volatility around this, what Powell says later in the week will carry far more weight.

Thursday Aug 22

These are the readings that will be used as recession warnings, last week readings have painted over the rot in the market, for now, if the readings on Thursday are bad then once again the market will panic.
Unemployment has just gone from bad to less bad, it’s not good!
Flash Manufacturing was below 50 in the last reading, this points to contraction (recession)
Most importantly the bulls will look for the Unemployment claims to once again come out lower and for the manufacturing PMI to come out above 50.(Also services PMI to be as expected or better)

Jackson Hole symposium , Thursday 22nd-Saturday 24th

This is basically a closed door meeting of the most overpaid, influential and powerful central bankers, finance ministers, hedge fund elites and other very rich/powerful people from around the world.
Behind closed doors they discuss the global banking policy and how to keep printing and transferring wealth to the rich while keeping the poor/middle class under control and in debt.
They take time off from their champagne and caviar to give press conferences during the day, this is what could affect the market.
Most importantly will be when the global cult leader, sorry typo, the Fed President, Jerome Powell will speak on Friday (2:00pm UTC+0)
The global market will look to his speech for an indication of the Feds plan for a September rate cut, most importantly on if that cut could be 50bps or if the Fed is considering making 2-3(25bps) cuts this year.
The market will be volatile around press conferences on Thursday-Friday, most importantly when Powell speaks.

Final thoughts,
Based on last weeks positive economic data and how that will be taken by the market i cant see how we dont start the week Bullish.
This obviously relies on no increased tensions in the Middle East.
Thursday and Friday will be volatile, i would not advise high leverage/margin trading on those days (or ever), there could be news related shocks(unemployment, flash PMI), also the press conference times from the Jackson hole symposium are mostly not known (except Powell on Friday).

On a personal note,
I want to move away from posting on square, i really dont like what square is and what it promotes.
The posts i make that are revealing or are too informative are censored here, it is easy to see.
I am pro retail and totally anti crypto scams, unfortunately in crypto the scams and the people running them sell themselves as revolutionaries and pro crypto, including the exchanges and the posters who either work for/with them or who push their narrative.
I won’t push their narrative if it’s predatory or anti retail.
I started posting here to help the crypto community but a lot of that is lost on square, i also started posting to start a community and gain friends, this i have done and i value that more than anything, you can easily compare my posts to other posters who have 50-100k followers, they post 20-50x more, they get more likes and more views but i get far more comments on average, this is the community/friendship side that i value so much.
Over the next month i want to switch my focus to posting on X.
I know square offers anonymity which is possibly important to many of you, i don’t really know how to solve that on another platform like X , maybe make another X account if your current one is to personal, i really don’t know, this whole posting journey is still new to me, i have never posted outside of square.
I talk with many of you on an ongoing basis and on X i will be able to do that in a more private/ongoing way, i share many personal things about myself too here, i don’t really feel comfortable having it on square for all to see, the post pinned to my profile should explain why.
If you want to keep following my posts then please follow me on X.

I will still post here for now, i will always answer on my square posts, if you need help just comment on a post.
This has never been about making money for me and never will be, if i post on X I will get verified and pay the annual fee of $160 so i can post articles and be add free.
This is not my job, it is a labour of love, i don’t promote anything or earn anything from posting, i have never promoted or joined any of the Binance campaigns, i am here for the friendship/community and to try educate and learn.
My posts will always be 100% free to everyone, i will never promote anything or spam nonsense for views or followers, I always said I am not posting here to groom followers to an outside paid site (like many on square do), this is still 100% true, the only reason i want to do this now is for my own sanity and my own morals.
I am almost positive that a large part of the posts on square and the accounts (with large followers) that post them lead back to a centralised source to push a narrative (the dots are easy to connect if you look), i know that no social media site is pure, on square it just feels more force fed, more manipulated and more predatory against uninformed traders, i don't want to be a part of that system, i want to fight against that system.

Thanks for reading.

Peace.

#TheWolfThatWins #MarketDownturn #BTC☀ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

Something about this Crypto price movement feels wrong.

I only say manipulated because other markets have reacted to the positive US economic data in a Bullish way, so why not crypto?

To me it looks like large holders/buyers are letting price drop to accumulate at lower prices, a game of chicken between large whales to see how low they will let it go, who will blink first ?
Most retail traders who have managed to survive the endless liquidations over the past months are now waiting for whales to be the catalyst so they can fomo in later at 20-30% higher prices.
It looks like last weeks (Monday 5th August) daily candle wick is acting as a strong magnet for crypto price, this has been the case many times over the past few months.

The charts below are the high standard (shambolic) technical analysis and charting offered in my posts.👇🥴

Excuse the charts i just wanted to give a rough idea of my thinking.

I know geopolitical tensions are influencing Crypto price but this feels like more than that.
I dont know if manipulation is the right word, the lack of volume and open interest just seems like large holders are allowing price to fall, for now.
The economic data in the last 2 days has been bullish for stocks but crypto has not shared in that sentiment when normally it would.
If you are looking to enter spot or longs(low leverage🙏) then look for prices around the middle of last week Mondays (5th August) daily candle wick (50-52k for BTC), this will apply to most of crypto.
Based on how other markets have reacted it feels like crypto is waiting for a catalyst, that catalyst could be whales accumulating at lower prices(Last weeks wick)
This also depends on the tensions in the Middle East.

This is just my opinion.

Peace

#MarketDownturn #BTC☀ #ETHETFsApproved #TheWolfThatWins

For anyone who follows me you will know I like to look at the wider market view.

I will first show the more macro trend/sentiment and then what could be effecting the crypto price.
Yesterday’s CPI print and Todays “recession " risk readings have all been pro crypto and pro stocks.
These readings have made a 25bps cut the more likely outcome in September but over the last weeks the market has been gripped by recession or crash fears, todays readings point more to a soft landing (for now)

Most indexes have reacted to this as good news being good news, a sign of economic stability.

The DXY(dollar strength) climbed off a higher likelyhood of a 25bps(not 50+) Septemeber cut, higher interest rates makes the dollar more competitive vs its (DXY) rivals, especially Japan (carry trade).

The S&P500, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Rus2000(Small caps) all gained off these readings.

Gold price saw a sell off which is likely due to the readings over the last 2 days(especially today) pointing to a stronger economy and less need to hold safe haven, non yield bearing, Gold.

So why is crypto stalling ?

Crypto has had a slight recovery off todays news but over the last 2 days it is still down while other indexes have reacted to the macro data in a more positive way.

$BTC News based price movement over the last day 👇

Crypto is obviously in its own category so we can’t just compare it to the stock markets or Gold, i use these as comparisons as it shows wider market sentiment.
Most importantly crypto is more "risk on" than global stocks, I feel that the tensions in the Middle East will still weigh heavily on Crypto price while the situation remains tense.

Another factor is the news of the US Government moving BTC.

I have pointing this out in my previous posts but to refresh, Trump said at the BTC conference that he would not sell seized government BTC.
I also pointed out that this means the current US Gov could just sell the BTC they hold if it was likely Trump would be elected, Trumps comment at the BTC conference seemed like a dare or a challenge to see how the current government would react, the same political game he played by telling Powell not to lower rates.
If the current US administration sell the BTC then Trump will use that as firepower to gain the "crypto vote" , if they hold the BTC then Trump will say it was by his doing, because he told them to.

Important to note

The Bitcoin moved by the US Gov was moved to a Coinbase account.
In 2019 Coinbase purchased the custody arm of Xapo Bank.
Coinbase are the largest custodian of BTC in the world, they hold Bitcoin for many of the large Bitcoin ETF funds and other large clients.
These Bitcoin (keys) are held across the world in off grid, military grade, bomb proof bunkers and includes a vast array of other security measures, Billions have been spent on securing Bitcoin for large holders.
I am including these facts because the US Gov might not intend to sell the BTC they have moved, it could simply be that they are moving them to cold storage with Coinbase custody.
I do feel that if Trump is likely to win or wins the election then the current administration might dump their BTC holdings, for now it would serve little purpose to do so as the election is still close and the "crypto vote" matters to much.
These Bitcoin moves will be used as a Political game in the coming months and create more uncertainty in the market.
The liquidity/open interest in the Bitcoin market is low at the moment so the threat of this sell pressure (Us Gov, final Mt.Gox payments) and also tensions in the Middle East are holding back BTC price movement.

Final thoughts,
The readings over the last 2 days have given the market a sigh of relief when it comes to recession fears (for now), now large holders will start to price in higher interest rates again.
The global market is not stable by any means, these readings just give a short term pause to these worries, the market will still be uncertain as it now goes back to pricing in higher interest rates over recession fears, this can all change quickly with future readings, it is a temporary shift in focus.
The US data (in a vaccum) from the last 2 days should have a mildly bullish effect on Crypto, that being said any news or increased tensions in the Middle East or Gov/Mt.Gox sell pressure will hold far more weight (short term) for Bitcoin and crypto as volume and open interest is low.
From now until next week Wednesday (21st Augusts, FOMC minutes) there is pretty clear sailing in regards to economic data.

Keep and eye on the news.

Trade safely.

Peace.

#BecomeCreator #TheWolfThatWins #Market_Update #MarketDownturn

Cypto sentiment/price is stuck between a rock and hard place , the rock being the economic uncertainty and the hard place being the geopolitical tensions, both are not good for "risk on" assets like crypto.

As is so often the case, crypto price direction will be largely effected by US economic data or other outside factors in the coming days.
In the coming days crypto needs pro interest rate cut data without that data pointing to an imminent recession.

Core PPI m/m (excluding food and energy) and PPI m/m both just came out lower.
PPI is the change in price of finished goods and services sold by producers, it is used as a gauge of inflation.

This is a good reading for interest rate cuts and therefore Crypto price, These PPI readings show inflationary pressures are easing and further support an interest rate cut in September, possibly a 50bps cut.
Crypto and market indexes like the S&P500, Nasdaq ,Nikkei, RUS2000 all had a mildly Bullish reaction to this reading.
PPI is not usually a huge market mover, the market will react far more to the data coming out in the next couple days.
Most importantly for "Risk on" assets like Crypto there is currently the threat of further escalation in tensions in the Middle East.
The tensions in the Middle east, the uncertainty over recession fears and the Yen carry trade unwind are still leading to a more "risk off" sentiment.
The price of Gold (Safe Haven asset) reflects this.👇 , Gold price is near ATHs.

For "Risk on" assets like Crypto any escalation or retaliation by Iran or its proxies will cause crypto price to fall, the larger the retaliation, the more likely it will lead to further conflict, this will lead to further "risk off" sentiment.
We need this conflict to come to an end for humanity, that is far more important than crypto price, it is sad to have to include conflict/war into your investment or trading strategy.

High Impact readings in the coming days.

Wednesday Aug 14th (Inflation fears)

The Wednesday CPI data will have a huge impact on price if there are any shock readings, i dont expect any shock readings, the actual numbers are expected to be as forecast with a possibility of softer readings (lower) as shelter costs started to fall in June and these make up around 30% of the CPI number.
If these numbers come out lower it will be Bullish for Crypto, if they come out higher (especially much higher) it will be bearish for Crypto.

A September rate cut is priced at 100%, the CPI data will effect how the market prices in a 50bps cut and not just a 25bps cut.
Lower CPI readings support a 50bps(or more) September cut.
Higher CPI readings would make a 25bps cut more likely (for now).

Thursday 15th Aug (Recession fears)

On Thursday we have Core Retail sales (excl Automobiles), Retail sales, Unemployment claims and the Empire state and Philly manufactoring index.
All of these will be looked at for recession fears.
Bad news is only bad news for any of these readings.
These readings are much harder to predict and its where shock readings could effect the market.
5-6 months ago the market looked for these readings to show a slowing economy, bad news is good news.
Now that is the total opposite, the market is looking for strong readings to show a recession is not likely.
What Crypto needs is higher retail sales and lower unemployment numbers.

Friday 16th
On Friday we have building permits and Prelim (most important) University of Michigan (UOM) inflation expectations and consumer sentiment.
Consumer sentiment will be the most important, consumer sentiment is how surveyed consumers feel about the current and future economic environment, it is important as consumers make up the majority of overall economic activity.
Over the last 5 readings consumer sentiment has come out lower than expected, this shows increasing economic pressure and uncertainty felt by consumers.
These readings on Friday will be important, more so if they are in line with data that is released on Wednesday and Thursday, they will be used more for confirmation of market sentiment.

Final thoughts,

The best case scenario for Crypto in the coming days would be for a de-escalation in tension in the Middle east, lower than expected CPI readings on Wednesday followed by stronger than expected retail sales and lower unemployment on Thursday.
None of these readings or factors can be viewed in a vacuum.
Good CPI data tomorrow could lead to a short term Bullish rally but that will quickly end for Crypto if anything happens in the Middle East or if retail sales or unemployment give a very bad reading Thursday.
Market crash worries might have eased but recession fears are still valid, it will take a few good readings for those fears to subside, in the coming days the retail sales and unemployment data will be where the market looks for recession worries.
The sideways action in Crypto over the last few days shows the uncertainty around Crypto, this is due to its "Risk on" status, current economic and geopolitical tensions are acting as an anchor for crypto price.
Also note the full effect of the Japan carry trade unwind could still effect the market, this was a global event that effected Trillions worth of positions across the globe, i am sure many large holders and banks are still in crisis mode over this.
For the technicians out there we can clearly see that a strong level of support has now become resistance on the daily crypto market cap chart.👇

For now a sustained breakthrough of this level of resistance will be determined mostly by the US economic data released in the coming days.
Price action could be volatile in the coming days, especially around and in the hours that follow high impact data releases.
Trade safely.

Peace.

#TheWolfThatWins #Market_Update #CryptoMarketMoves #MarketDownturn

While writing this post i kept having the same flashback to the scene from the movie-Gladiator.

The scene where Marcus Aurelius says "There once was a dream that was Rome.."

There once was a dream that was crypto...

The decentralised dream that we once had for crypto is nearly dead.
Crypto, most importantly Bitcoin is now becoming a tool for the richest and most powerful.
There is nothing decentralised about the plan they have for Bitcoin , it’s a means to an end.
If you want to know more then read on.

This post is long, it is 100% intended for the red pill gang.

The other day i linked an article in my post 👇

https://unlimitedhangout.com/2024/07/investigative-reports/trump-embraces-the-bitcoin-dollar-stablecoins-to-entrench-us-financial-hegemony/

I am going to try and break down this article(and more) in a user friendly way.

Every part of this post leads back to Bitcoin

Key points,
Bitcoin is a store of value, in years to come this will continue to grow, this is by design and planning on a deep state level.Bitcoin is a means to an end for the US government and the powerful people who control the narrative and will profit off it.The plan for Bitcoin (on a deep state level) is to control the supply and demand and use that as a means of enforcing US dollar dominance globally through US denominated stable coins.US denominated stable coins are mostly backed by US debt, the bigger the demand for US backed stable coins, the bigger the market for US treasuries (US debt).The Petrodollar just ended, now starts the age of the Bitcoindollar.

Lets start,

The United States of America faces 2 large economic problems, supply and demand.

Global demand for US dollars, (Demand)
In recent years there has been a global movement to shift away from the demand for USD as the go to currency for global trading, this is shown by the end of the petrodollar and also a continued movement by Brics nations to create a Brics currency.
I will not go deep into how the petrodollar secured global dominance for the USD, most of you already know, basically any nation looking to buy oil had to convert their local currency to dollars to buy oil, any oil rich nation that did not comply quickly felt sanctions or the wrath of the US war machine.
For over 50 years this has enforced the demand for USD globally, now with the end of the petrodollar and global tensions and sanctions many nations are looking to change this.

US Government debt, (Supply)
Firstly it is important to note, US treasuries are US Debt.
These treasuries are backed by the US government and offer different rates of return depending on duration, supply and demand, interest rates, yield curve and many other economic factors.
I have explained treasuries in length in my previous posts, basically a US treasury is the US government selling its debt.
They can be sold in the short term, days-weeks (Known as T-Bills)
They can be sold over the long term, 10-30 years (known as treasury bonds)
The US government is currently in $35 Trillion worth of debt.
They need somebody to buy $35 Trillion worth of treasury bills and treasury bonds.

This is a list (In billions of USD) of the largest foreign holders of US treasuries👇

For decades outside nations have been huge holders of US treasuries, in recent years China/Japan and other nations have been selling treasuries in the hundreds of Billions for economic or political reasons.
The US government is printing more money and is in more debt than ever before, many large nations who previously soaked up a large part of that debt are no longer customers.
The US government need another market for its ever increasing debt.

The above list is missing a VERY important player! (Actually a few)

USDT - Treasury bill holdings $95 Billion.
This places USDT above the likes of Mexico and Germany as non US debt holders, also if you include other stable coins like Circle/Paypal then the amount is over $150 Billion
With current estimates is it predicted that US denominated stable coins will be the largest (Non US) holder of US treasuries (debt) in the next 4 years.

For anyone who follows me you will know i share no love for USDT.
I have long had concerns about the unregulated way USDT has been run.
I feel my concerns about USDT over the last years have been justified, I just missed something that is now becoming more and more obvious.

USDT is now to big/important to fail

This is the rise in USDT market cap over the last 4 years 👇(Monthly candles)

Lets look at some key points for USDT over the last 4 years.

USDT has gone from $10B-$115B Market cap.Tether changed its wording, previously USDT was "backed 1-1 by USD", Now it is backed by Tether reserves, 81% of which is held in US debt.Tether onboarded the US FBI and secret service into their platform.Tether freezes funds held by US sanctioned wallets.Tether onboards chainalysis monitoring.

Each and every point listed above has a VERY deep rabbit-hole that explains it, i will link 2 articles at the end of this post for people who want a deeper understanding.
4 years ago Tether was facing scrutiny and legal troubles in the United States, then that all went away.
I can only assume that around this time they were given 2 options,
Either face further scrutiny and legal troubles by the full force of the US government and its allies.Become a proxy.

I have done deep research into this and it basically all leads to two things, information and dollar dominance

Information,

At the BTC conference Trump spoke about a central bank digital currency, also Jerome Powell was asked about it during the FOMC press conference.
Both echoed the same stance, no plans for a CBDC.
Why not?
Firstly you need to understand that your data is the most traded commodity in the world.
Most governments are not allowed to openly spy on their citizens, they don’t need to, they just buy your information from data brokers.
Everything you touch or use is collecting data, every social media page you visit, your search engine, your phone, the list is endless, most of this is allowed because you accepted the terms of service.
This data is then sold globally, including to governments and government agencies.
Why change that with digital currencies?
Stable coins like Tether already offer all the power without any of the messy regulation, why create a government regulated and scrutinized digital currency when you have a proxy that will already serve the same purpose.

Dollar Dominance
You can go very deep down the rabbit-hole to see how this whole system has been created, Bitcoin is the commodity, the value, the end game is to convert that value into holders of US backed stable coins globally.
If you look deep enough you will find connections in all the big players who are helping to spread US backed stable coins globally.
Most of these large companies can all be traced back to Venture capital firms or powerful people who control the power and wealth in Silicon Valley, California.
If you look deep enough you will find the people behind companies like Xapo, PayPal, Paxos, Coinbase, USDT, USDC, Mercado libre , many bitcoin mining companies, Black Rock and other large US bitcoin ETF funds, even spy satellite companies and social media companies are all linked.
The list and the web is endless, from Latin America to the Middle East and Africa.
All of these companies directly or indirectly trace back to the same rich and powerful people and large organisations founded or based out of Silicon Valley, California.
The goal is simple, make the US dollar the global currency through US backed stable coins.
This is already happening globally as more and more people in Countries that suffer from hyperinflation are turning to USDT or US backed stable coins as a means to save money or to transact (Argentina, Venezuela, many African countries, war torn countries)
If you look deep enough you will find that many of the success stories in these 3rd world countries or struggling economies can be traced back to global players like Endeavor.

Endeavor is an American run “philanthropy” network that stretches the globe, through its finance and power it has created a global network and ecosystem by empowering people and businesses who are selected to be a part of the endeavor ecosystem, most of this focus has been in the global South.

Endeavor were the force behind Xapo bank and Latin American e-commerce giant Mercado Libre.

A few other Endeavor success stories.👇 (Many offering an online payment platform)

For a struggling business in Latin America, Africa, Asia or the Middle East a lifeline from Endeavor and access to their global network is a sure fire way to success, if they select you, but remember you have to pay it forward.
Xapo and Mercado Libre/Livre are 2 of their huge success stories, also both offer global payments in US backed stable coins.

Mercado Libre👇 ( These examples just shows Brazil and Chile, they are used across South America, including payments in US stable coins)

Xapo👇

This is an American run, global movement to put the right people in the right places and ensure there is a global demand and market for US stable coins for decades to come.
Higher global demand for US backed stable coins means higher demand for US government debt, by converting your local currency into USDT/USDC/PYUSD (ripple soon) you are basically converting your currency into US debt.
As mentioned before this is not all you are doing, you are also now leaving an easy to trace digital footprint , the data of how much money you have, what you spend it on, who you send it to, everything will be available.
This effect is not only felt in struggling economies, around the world most crypto traders are trading crypto is USDT pairs, the liquidity in the market is mostly in USDT or other US backed stable coins.
There are also laws, Basel 3 and others, which will require large US funds who offer investment into Bitcoin to hold a reserve of US treasuries to protect against Bitcoin price volatility, another dump for US government debt.
Welcome to the age of the Bitcoindollar , the sinkhole for $35 Trillion in US government debt.

Final thoughts for this section,

Below you will find a lot of the source material i studied multiple times to further enlighten myself , it is amazing work by Mark Goodwin and Whitney Webb.
I dont know them or have any affiliation to them.
Their research and articles are very deep and very dark, i found them hard to read but i also want a deeper understanding.
Their research is absolutely amazing and deserves widespread praise, it is the uncensored journalism that the world desperately needs, especially Crypto.
For most of you it will be a rabbit-hole to deep.

I will try summarise and hugely oversimplify these articles in a more user friendly and to the point way,

What you will find if you read these articles is that many of the big companies and the powerful people who run them are mostly connected or have been placed in positions of power, many are part of the deep state movement to monitor and have power and influence over what we see, what we do, what we believe, our privacy, our financial freedom and much more.
The PsyOp (Psychological operation) is real, including in Crypto.

Many of the people who are shaping and/or manipulating Crypto today were doing the same over 20 years ago in the Dotcom boom.
Many of the powerful people who control a huge part of the crypto market today have been profiting off predatory practises for over 20 years, they have profited off insider trading, market manipulations, having close ties to powerful people inside and outside of government, they made fortunes off the financial crash in 2008 and even the covid pandemic.
If you trace back the connections they mostly lead back to the same rich and powerful people or Venture capital giants or companies that were founded and/or run out of Silicon Valley, California.
Many companies have been groomed or incorporated into the deep state web as the digital age grows, crypto is no different.
By using Bitcoin as the commodity they aim to create a global demand for dollars and a surveillance network around the world.
If you follow the breadcrumbs you will see why Trump winning this election is more important than most could imagine for this Bitcoindollar plan.

https://unlimitedhangout.com/2024/07/investigative-series/the-chain-of-custody-the-mafia-holding-the-elites-bitcoin/
https://unlimitedhangout.com/2024/08/investigative-series/the-chain-of-issuance-the-people-and-patents-that-built-the-financial-surveillance-network/

Some research i was working on that ties into this narrative.

I was going to post about this seperately but it ties into this post so well.

The imagine below shows the leaders in Venture capital deals in Crypto over the last year.👇 (You can find this list on DefiLlama)

This image shows the top 10 venture capital firms that have been responsible for the most new investment (by deals) into crypto projects over the last year.
If you look at the funding of most projects (especially in DEFI) that have been launched on major exchanges in the last 1-2 years you will find the above names will show up a lot.

So lets break down this list, i will split this into 2 parts, including central exchanges and without.

Of the top 10 there are 2 central exchanges on the list Binance and OKX.

Note this is the venture capital part of exchanges, they fall under the same umbrella and are still the same company in essence.

You will clearly notice from the image that they have a median investment amount of $0.00, a median amount is just the average investment made, or in the case of Central exchanges the amount disclosed.

Most large central exchanges don’t share their investments into crypto projects, they say this is because it is disclosing their competitive edge...

I need to choose my words wisely as you are not allowed to speak badly about the powers that be here.

Binance labs have been the clear leaders in deals over the last year, yes it is the largest Crypto exchange in the world but you need to question why central exchanges don’t share what they pay, or if they pay, to be invested in the tokens that they launch.

These tokens, especially in the case of Binance, gain a huge amount of hype and advertising around token launches, it is also where the launch price is determined in many cases.

This list below is from over a month ago but shows clearly how tokens launched on binance have performed in the months following launch, these projects are all extremely over valued on launch and offer no fair investment for retail, most importantly they don’t allow for price discovery which is what determined crypto price in the past.

In past cycles tokens had price discovery, retail and large whales were able to buy at the same prices from token infancy, that is now gone, that whole token cycle is now controlled by the VCs and central exchanges, this includes all the profits.

The days of finding a new token that will 20x(sustained)are very rare, all the 20-50x gains are already made by the VCs and central exchanges(Before launch), once launched retail are paying 20-50x more than what the VCs paid to seed the project 1-2 years prior.

All the profits that were made by retail investors in previous cycles are now going to the Venture capital firms and central exchanges, those were the profits that were re-invested in previous cycles and it’s what supported ALT seasons, now that profit is gone.

There is an ALT season happening, it has been happening all year, just not for retail investors.

Lets look at this list again, we have noted that 2/10 are central exchanges👆

Lets focus on the remaining 8(non exchange) venture capital funds on this list.

*Remember crypto is decentralised , that is its selling point*

Of these 8 Venture capital firms, how many would you say were started in America?

Wait America is huge, lets try narrow this down.

Of the 8 remaining Venture capital firms, how many would you say were founded and/or run out of California?
The answer is 7 (Framework is run out of Toronto Canada)

I don’t think you need much convincing to see where this is headed.
There is very little decentralization in crypto anymore, least of all in the new projects that are VC funded and launched on large exchanges.
The same web that is behind the global push/demand for US backed stable coins are also the same group who are funding many of the new projects that are launched on large exchanges.
If you just looked on the surface or took crypto at face value it would be easy to miss, as soon as you start to connect the dots the connections and the centralisation it leads back to is impossible to ignore.

If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then its probably a duck.🤔

Most of these projects are absolute garbage, some are "worth" hundreds of millions-Billions FDV on launch and serve little/no real world usage, they are mostly made for the sole reason of transferring wealth from the uninformed poor/middle class retail crypto traders -> Rich VC funds and exchanges.
These are the "get rich quick" projects, the projects that "offer" retail investors the dreams of turning their $100 into a Lamborghini.
Binance square is a perfect case study for this (And they know it)

The next time the crypto market has a correction just look what the posts on square are about, the rage posts about "liquidation" or "scam projects".
You will find most of the posts relate to the VC funded, trash projects that have been hyped and basically force fed to uninformed retail traders over the last years.

It’s all predatory and it’s all planned.

Final thoughts,

It is never too late to buy Bitcoin, this Bitcoindollar system/plan is in its infancy.

Companies like Xapo/Coinbase (And many more) are spending Billions on security measures to secure Bitcoin keys, this is for a reason. (They even want to send BTC keys into space for security)👇

In my opinion it makes no sense to have anything less than 60-70% of your long term spot portfolio in Bitcoin.
Once you buy Bitcoin don’t sell, it could be the most valuable commodity in the world in the years to come.
Keep your Bitcoin safe, holding long term on a central exchanges is not safe, have self-custody.
When the market has a large correction buy more Bitcoin, only buy what you can afford to, this is not a get rich quick scheme.
You can either be a smart investor in Crypto or a gambler, both paths are available to you, the only person who can decide which path you take is you.

Knowledge and patience is power.

Peace.

#TheWolfThatWins #BTC☀ #MarketDownturn #Market_Update