This is not clickbait, this is not drama, this is facts.

What happens in the next 2 days and then the decision on the 31st of July will define Crypto price.(For a while)

I pointed out 2 days ago that the chance of no cut in July but most importantly in September was rising, this was mostly political.

Since that post the chance of a July cut has risen sharply, most importantly a chance for 50bps or more by September has also risen sharply.

Political agenda can only hide so much, recent US data, especially in the labour market show signs that an interest cut is needed, this is not "soft landing" data, that was months ago, this is now becoming " hard landing " data.

The data actually shows it is already to late.

The bad news is bad news.

If you understand the treasury bond market then look at what the yield curve is doing, also "the spread" , if you dont, basically it is showing the exact same signs that have been acurate in most past recessions in the last 100 years.

The GDP, unemployment and Core Pce data that comes out in the next 2 days will give the FED time to consider this data for a possible July cut.

It will have huge implications for the Crypto price in the next week.

Far more than the ETF final approval or Trump speaking in a few days!

I mentioned in a post weeks ago that Trump would try and influence rate cuts and then Trump confirmed that last week, he wants Powell and the Fed to hold rates higher.

Trump does not care about current economic hardships , the more the average American suffers due to the economic conditions in the coming months, the more likely they will want drastic change, Trump is drastic change.

Trump will continue to try and get Powell to hold rates higher, it is sick if you understand what that leads to but he does not care.

Biden and Harris are responsible for this, the current economic pain is Trumps sure-fire road to re-election.

Powell knows this, he also knows that Trump can swing the blame for what happens in the coming months however he wants if/when elected.

If Powell plays along Trump will say " The FED can only do so much, it was bad government policy that caused this "

If Powell does not play along then the blame will fall at his feet.

There is so much indecision in the market

The S&P500 has fallen substantially, this comes off the back of bad earnings data by Google and Tesla, dont be fooled this is also largely due to economic concerns.

I wrote this "FUD" in a post about US recession worries over a month ago👇

Gold is showing the continued "risk off" sentiment, it fell towards the end of last week due to profit taking, it has now resumed bullish momentum.

This indecision is also clearly shown by the fact that the crypto market cap has dropped since the ETH final approval, yes i know " sell the news" but why is BTC dominance climbing after ETH final approval?

BTC is the most "Risk off" investment in Crypto.

I have reached this point in the post and i have lost the point i was trying to make, this market confusion is contagious.😫

I think the point i am trying to make is that the whole market is confused, the predicted chance of the Fed cutting rates changing so much each day proves that.

The only thing i can say for a near certainty is that the US economic Policy is what is going to effect the Crypto market the most in the coming months, most importantly in the coming days-week.

From now until the Feds fund rate decision on July 31st i think things could get very volatile.

I personally believe at this point a "soft landing" is near impossible, that being said it might take many months for the "hard landing" to be confirmed.

What crypto basically wants now(short term) is for the data to show the FED have "messed" it up, that would force the Fed to cut rates regardless of politics.

For crypto the best result(Short term) would be that the FED needs to make drastic policy decisions (July cut) and fire up the money printer and inject money into the economy.

This would lead to the last Euphoric phase.

For now it is all about the July cut, if that does happen it will lead to another large gain for crypto in the weeks that follow or until the "hard landing" cant be hidden any longer.

Trump is "pro crypto" but also trying to stop the "pro crypto" decision the Fed could make🤔 (I know its more complex than that).

It would be the end of Powells career at the FED if he cuts rate in 7 days (should Trump win).

In other news,

I have been working on my Eigen Layer part 2 post for the last couple days, i will post in the next couple days, it is a long post but will be worth reading for people who want an educated roadmap on how to profit off the re-staking ecosytem towards the end of this year when Eigen "should" go fully live.

Some FUD,

Trade safely over the next few days,

Politics, high impact US economic data, Grayscale sell pressure, Mt.Gox payments, Feds fund rate looming.

High leverage or margin trading is always rigged against you, for now it is basically impossible and stupid to even try this type of trading.

Peace.

#TheWolfThatWins #MtGoxJulyRepayments #Market_Update #ETHETFsApproved