Firstly i want to address the Trump speech.
I didnt want to even post about it but the amount of cherry picked information being posted on square is both uninformed and misleading.
I see many "Bullish" comments on these posts by people being misled.
Other than firing Gensler Trump did not say a single concrete or meaningful thing for Crypto, the speech was a huge letdown for anyone who watched it and was expecting more.
For anyone who is informed the speech was a whole lot of nothing.
Keys points,
Trump would fire Gensler day 1,
Gensler was gone already, he is Bidens puppy, Gensler gave the initial Ethereum ETF approval on the back of Trumps "pro crypto" stance, after Trump accepted Crypto donations, it was a pro crypto move for Biden/democrats.
The final Ethereum ETF approval news came out first thing Monday July 15th, this was 2 days after the failed assassination attemp on Trump, coincidence ?
Trump saying he would fire Gensler was probably to show Powell and others that he will remove anyone who does not conform to his agenda in the coming months
Trump would hold siezed Crypto as strategic reserve,
The US has already sold a large part of their siezed crypto, also they could sell the rest before Trump becomes President.
The US government only holds $14 Billion worth of BTC, this is a large number but in relation to the BTC market cap or price it is insignificant.
Trump compares BTC to Gold, Silver or the steel industry,
This was already the case without Trump, no politician has been responsible for the growth of Bitcoin, the only reason they care now is because it is worth enough votes to matter, that and they have seen the profits to be made.
Things some might have missed,
Trump started his speech by introducing influencial people in attendance, this included Jake Paulđł, for anyone who does not know please google "CryptoZoo", Jakes VERY close brother and influencer Logan Paul started CryptoZoo, it was a massive scam and it fleeced a large part of the crypto community, some lost their life savings.
Trump ended his speech with the words "Enjoy playing with your Bitcoin and Crypto". Playing with ? .....
The week ahead, Wednesday is key (But not all)
There is a LOT of high impact data this week, each will effect the market.
The main focus is the Feds fund rate but also the Press conference
The prediction for a cut in July is 6.2%, it has gone up from around 4.7% over the last couple days, this shows some still see the chance of a shock rate cut.
I say "shock" rate cut only because it would certainly end Powells career at the Fed, the US economy needs a rate cut, a July cut would be totally warranted and would likely be priced higher if not for political agenda.
For those who do not know, Trump wants Powell to hold rates higher, long story short it would help Trump in the coming elections.
Important to note!
If the Fed keeps rates at 5.5% for July then the market will look to the FOMC press conference 30 minutes later, this is when the market will price in a September cut based on what is said, this will also have huge implications on the market.
A Bullish shock will come if the Fed lowers rates in July.
A Bearish shock could happen in the FOMC press conference, this will happen if Powell keeps the same restrictive/hawkish stance he has had since the start of the year, if Powell does not give a clear indication of a September cut then this will be bearish for "risk on" assets
Both the July decision and the press conference thereafter will effect market sentiment and price.
This whole week is a minefield
The key focus will be on Wednesday but before and after this we have key labour market readings, most importantly on Thursday and Friday.
The labour market is a huge warning sign for recession, the Sahm rule recession warning could be hit this week if the unemployment reading is above 4.1%, it is a well respected and trusted indicator that is used(with others) by most analysts.
2 days ago i watched an interview by the creator of the Sahm rule (Claudia Sahm), she and other well respected analysts have already warned of serious consequences if the labour market shows further signs of weakness, she also stated the Fed should already have started cutting rates.
The whole market will be focused on the Unemployment/Jobs data, it could have a huge effect on price if there are any shock readings.
My Views,
I think that the Fed will hold rates for July, i think that political agenda will sway them to push the decision until September.
If the Fed were to make a "shock cut" on Wednesday it would be because a recession is all but inevitable, the Fed does not like to spook the market, a Wednesday cut would definitely spook the market.
For me what Powell says at the Fomc press conference is most important, Powell is a master of kicking the can down the road (stalling), i dont think he has any room left to stall but it could happen for political agenda.
If the Fed holds rates at 5.5% for July and Powell does not give a clear plan of a -25/-50 bps cut for September then i think it is basically economic self sabotage for political agenda, for Trump.
I think Powell would face huge backlash from democrats if he does this.
In my opinion this whole week should be avoided for short term trading, technical analysis and indicators will have little/no use when so much Macro data will define price movement.
Avoiding short term risks that you have no control over is how to survive and stay profitable long term in crypto.
Trade safely.
Peace.
#TheWolfThatWins #US_Job_Market_Slowdown #MtGoxJulyRepayments #Market_Update
