At 9 a.m. Beijing time, Trump and Harris held their first presidential debate as scheduled. While neither candidate mentioned cryptocurrency, the focus was mainly on traditional topics like foreign policy and immigration. According to Polymarket data, as the debate progressed, the odds gradually shifted in Harris’s favor, and market reactions highlighted traders’ focus on the election outcome. Although cryptocurrency was not directly addressed, the expectation of Trump’s declining chances of victory clearly impacted digital currency prices. The political uncertainty caused by the close race led traders to become more cautious, triggering a short-term increase in risk aversion. As a result, BTC dropped by 1.6% within an hour, testing the $56,000 support level.

Source: Polymarket

After the debate, BTC completed a pullback from its high and closed around $56,500. The actual volatility for the day was approximately 43%, significantly lower than the previous day’s option market pricing. Based on this, the implied volatility curve was also notably revised downward. However, the front end of the curve still reflected expectations of a 60% fluctuation in anticipation of tonight’s CPI data.

Source: SignalPlus

Source: Deribit (as of 11SEP 16:00 UTC + 8)

On the other hand, the shift in Volatility Skew reflects recent emotional swings in the market. Yesterday, the end of negative inflows into the BTC spot ETF was seen by investors as a turning point in market sentiment, driving the price to challenge $58,000 and pushing Vol Skew back. Today, although the Ethereum ETF also saw an end to fund outflows and BTC continued to experience inflows, the negative risk aversion caused by political uncertainty dampened the market’s renewed enthusiasm.

From a trading perspective, the price rebound and the return of Vol Skew have created attractive buying opportunities in BTC, particularly toward the end of November, when many put options were bought. In the case of ETH, this trend has resulted in a large volume of call options being sold. One of the most notable examples is the 20SEP custom multi-transaction strategy from bulk trading, which involved selling bullish options at the $2,350 and $2,400 levels, yielding significant premium returns.

Source: SignalPlus, 25D RR Variation

Source: SignalPlus, transaction data

Source: SignalPlus, transaction data

Source: SignalPlus, ETH Bulk Transaction Data