Let’s not mention it since it was too long ago. If we only look at the last bull market (2021-2022), Bitcoin was already halved for the third time. Bitcoin rose by up to eight times. After all, Bitcoin is already the number one cryptocurrency. The market value of big coins is already very high, and it is unlikely that they will rise dozens of times again. What about other coins?

The price of Ethereum that day was 188.6. It hit a historical high price of 4878 a year and a half later. It increased by 2486% in a year and a half, about 25 times. This was not a small coin that had just started. It was already the second largest Ethereum coin at that time. currency.

If we look further down, Cardano, ADA, which was ranked thirteenth at the time, had a price of 0.04768 that day. It also hit a historical high price of 3.09 about a year and a half later. It increased by 6380%, nearly 64 times, in a year and a half.

Despite continued positive price action for major cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks, confidence in altcoins appears to be at an unusually low level. Expectations instilled by previous cycles have left many investors disappointed with altcoin performance in this bull run, and portfolio returns have stagnated.
Looking at historical data, Bitcoin (BTC) has tended to perform well in July, with an average performance of +7.39%, compared to June’s average return of -6.96% over the past five years.
Although July has performed well historically, the cyclical nature of the market suggests that August and September may be weaker. Are there any opportunities for us to seize in July? Will the falling market really reverse in July?

The minutes of the Fed's FOMC meeting on June 11-12 showed that policymakers agreed on price stability, but there was no consensus among Fed officials on how many months of good inflation data would be needed to start cutting interest rates. Some officials believed in being patient before taking action, and some officials said that rate hikes were still under discussion.
Bitcoin lost the $62,000 support level in the early hours of Wednesday morning, hitting a low of $59,515 before bullish forces pushed it back above $60,000. However, bears continued to exert downward pressure, and this morning, Bitcoin hit the $58,000 level again, down nearly 5% in 24 hours.

In July, although Bitcoin rebounded from its lows, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index remained in the neutral range, indicating that investors are uncertain about the future market trend. Even if the market performs mediocrely, there are still many altcoins with the potential to soar.
3 hidden treasure altcoins that are undervalued by the market but may bring profits in July. They are for reference only and are not intended as an investment basis.
MANTRA (OM): The RWA Token That Hasn’t Been Paying Attention Yet
MANTRA (OM) is a public chain project in the real world asset (RWA) track, providing a secure and scalable infrastructure with the goal of creating a highly liquid RWA permissioned dApp ecosystem on a permissionless chain.

Why do I always believe that the crazy bull market has not come yet? Based on the long-term analysis of BTC and ETH/BTC trends, compared with the previous bull market.

In the comparative trend chart from 2019 to 2022, we can find that:
1. In 2020, BTC started the third wave of the main rise two months after the halving;
2. Bitcoin market share (BTC-D) peaked in December 2020, seven months after the halving, and then began to decline;
3. ETH/BTC also hit bottom in December 2020, and as the king of altcoins, ETH’s trend began to strengthen;
4. In this round of bull market, the trend is faster than that in 2021, so it is speculated that BTC-D is expected to peak in October, six months after the halving, and the range is predicted to be 57%-60%.

After BTC fell all the way to $58,400 last week, the trading volume was effectively increased and gained strong support. After a four-day rebound, it gradually approached the $64,000 mark. Coinbase's weekly trading volume increased by 31% month-on-month. The market followed the trend and formed the second largest chip accumulation point of 479,000 BTC at $61,000. The first chip accumulation point was $16,000, which is where this round of bull market started.
Once again, the short-term investor breakeven support was validated. After a short-term loss liquidation, the market is at the bottom of the mid-line. However, the market still needs to work hard to return to the latest breakeven point of $64,400.

The crypto market started the second half of the year on Monday in a rising trend.
The latest data on U.S. manufacturing activity showed that the U.S. manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction territory in June, hitting a four-month low, boosting investors' hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in September as the economy appears to be showing signs of weakness. Investors are still awaiting the June jobs report due on Friday, which would provide more support for rate cuts if it shows signs of further cooling in the labor market.
Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded above the $63,000 support level in the early trading and has been hovering around the $6.3 level.

This week (7/1-7/7) is a big macro week. The core is the U.S. unemployment rate and non-farm data on Friday. The macro market, which has been silent for many days, has made a comeback, and there are important macro events every weekday.
In terms of encryption, the SEC will most likely respond to the ETH ETF this week. Although the possibility of direct approval is low, good news is likely.
The quarterly delivery has just ended and the IV of all major maturities are very low, which is a good opportunity to build a position.

This week's major events:
7/1 Monday
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June.
Tuesday, July 2
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, ECB President Lagarde and Brazilian Central Bank President Neto spoke at the ECB’s Central Bank Forum;

The crypto market was not good last week. Bitcoin rebounded from $60,000 to $62,000 but failed to counterattack and then fell below the key support level of $60,000. The weekly decline widened to 5.7%. Under the strong selling pressure of the market, even though Ethereum had the theme of spot ETF to enhance its attractiveness, its price still did not break through $3,500. The weekly decline narrowed to about 3.5% compared with Bitcoin, and the overall buying sentiment of the market was low.

The low buying sentiment can be attributed to three reasons. The biggest one is the selling by long-term investors. The transfer of funds on the chain has been quite frequent in the past week. Most of them are net transfers to crypto exchanges. Investors are focusing on the Mt. Gox crypto exchange. The repayment of Bitcoin debt is about to begin. Since its impact on the market is not yet known, many long-term investors are realizing years of profits, and the market is currently under heavy selling pressure.

The market continues to fluctuate between $60,000 and $70,000, paying off debts in order to reach a new all-time high ahead of schedule
BTC continued to adjust downward in the short term, and on June 24, it once fell below $61,000. Previously, I predicted that the market would enter a short-term clearing phase of weak equilibrium, and the first target of clearing would be Bitcoin miners. As the price of the currency fell, more and more miners sold all their daily output (maximum supply 450 coins/day) and also sold their solid inventory.

Unfortunately, liquidation is often accompanied by a certain degree of stampede. The short-term investor cost line (raised to $64,000), which has repeatedly received strong support over the past year, has not been effectively resisted. After falling below $61,000, it is only 8% away from the largest adjustment position of $56,500 since BTC's historical high.

AVAX is the first layer blockchain currency of the Avalanche smart contract and is currently trading at 28.25. Why do I feel that AVAX will continue to rise and perform well in this bull market?
Avalanche demand is not due to FOMO
Avalanche is not the only altcoin that has recovered in the past 24 hours. Many other coins in the top 20 by market cap have done the same. However, not all cryptocurrencies have been able to sustain the rally. But AVAX is not one of them.
First, we looked at social search volume. Avalanche’s social search volume has reached new highs since June 27 and remains healthy at press time. Social dominance measures the level of searches for a cryptocurrency. Typically, random searches for an asset rise when there are major developments.